Posted on 03/17/2008 8:16:40 PM PDT by steelboy
Transition economics suggests that China grew rapidly because inefficiencies of the prereform planning system were eliminated. Agricultural and industrial reforms unleashed incentives and thereby caused an immediate increase in output. Competition between enterprises, increasingly under private management, led to cost-cutting and innovation. The Chinese diaspora helped with management techniques, finance and knowledge of foreign markets. China's economy could not but grow. But once the gains of transition are exhausted, China's patch of rapid economic growth will end.
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Slurp, slurp.
Cheers!
China’s growth is sustainable, because we’re asleep, and the people who should be looking out for our interests are selling us down the river.
Long term (50-100 years) the growth of the Chinese economy will be determined by the amount of political and economic freedom in China (again, IMO).
That too.
China's labor force is likely to start declining around 2014. The average age of China's labor force is rising to about 46 years in 2025 from 37 years in 2000.
China has too many people to import younger immigrants to supplement the workforce, but its one-child policy has made the whole population's average age 20 years older since it was implemented. The imbalance of marriageable women to men has made this slide very hard to reverse.
China's growth isn't sustainable.
It will plateau.
Funny that only you noticed :)
China’s growth “may” be sustainable if it lasts as long as sustainability requires. The way things are going, HK will merge with a Cantonese speaking south, Tibet will disappear along with Qinghai and parts of Sichuan and Xinjiang will declare independence as East Turkestan in the not so distant future. After that, China’s growth (of environmental pollution, an aging population and general hopelessness) will definitely be sustainable...whatever it will be called then...
China will prosper as long she has political STABILITY and economic freedom. China had an American style republic in 1911 and it failed because entrenched interests used the democratic process to stifle reforms and created family monopolies. China needs a large educated and sophisticated middle class to have democracy. The Chinese needs to develop a loyalty to national interest over loyalty to family/clique interests. Today 90 percent of China are rural farmers or poor factory workers who resent the urban rich. Democracy will mean the return of Maoist government. Just look at Venezuala and the Gaza strip.
China can easily secure Sanjing and Tibet by instituting homesteading which allows settlers to register and own the lands they settle and make productive. There are enough poor Chinese willing to leave the cities or small farms to risk making it big in the frontiers of Tibet and Sanjing. Problem is Bejing cannot get over the psychological hurdle call “private property”. Thus China continues to suffer from overcrowding and insecure control of Tibet and Sanjing due to PC. Before we laugh at them, we Americans rather suffer high energy prices due to short supply of oil than get over the PC barrier of drilling offshore and in US territory.
China can't continue to poison its lands and people for quick profits. The people will demand both better living and working conditions as they grow less poor and as they do costs will go up and growth will go down. My guess is they are peaking now in terms of low cost production. The consequences of all those years cutting corners is starting to come home to roost.
More importantly, they need a government willing to limit it’s power...that’s the rub.
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