Posted on 03/02/2008 3:43:15 PM PST by reagandissiple
n New Jersey, Hillary Clinton holds a double-digit advantage over John McCain in an early look at the race for the Garden State’s 15 Electoral College votes. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state found Clinton earning 50% of the vote while McCain attracts 39%. Clinton leads by twenty-one points among women but trails by two among men.
However, if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, the race in New Jersey will begin as a toss-up. The Rasmussen Reports election poll finds McCain with 45% support and Obama with 43%. McCain leads by twelve among men while Obama has a five point edge among women. This is one of the few states where Clinton outperforms Obama in general election match-ups against McCain (Florida is another).
McCain does well in New Jersey by attracting solid support from GOP voters and also picking up the votes from 25% of Democrats. This could be an example of what Michael Barone had in mind when he said we will have to throw away the old Red-State, Blue-State electoral maps for Election 2008. Four years ago, John Kerry won New Jersey by seven percentage points. In Election 2000, Al Gore carried the state handily and defeated George W. Bush 56% to 40%.
Any truth to the report that McCain is meeting with Lieberman and other liberals this weekend, perhaps to discuss a Dem. VP?
Haven’t heard but it wouldn’t surprise me. Joe is Juanito’s kind of “conservative.”
To me the only thing that makes sense is motor voter.
A similar thing happened in Pennsylvania. Since ‘94, there has been a rather large increase in voter registration — with no similar increase in population.
Now whether there is actual vote fraud or not is another story.
If NJ is a toss-up I wonder what that says for PA. If Obama loses PA he’s toast.
“The fact that Clinton beats out McCain but Obama doesn’t reflects the very serious racial divides in New Jersey which has one of the largest minority populations in America and one of the most Democratic.”
This would tend to verify Robert Putnam’s assertions in “Bowling Alone” that in areas of mixed cultures and ethnic groups, people of one group are, by and large, distrustful of those of other ethnic groups.
Unlike the whites of, say - Iowa or Vermont (lily-white states), those in New Jersey have learned from experience about the conflicts between groups other than their own. They won’t be as predisposed to faint for the Obamessiah.
- John
“Really does not matter if you believe he is materially different from John McCain because of the following scenario that WILL play out if John McCain is elected:
John McCain will grant amnesty to 20-40 million+ Illegal Aliens who will vote 70%+ Democrat (As they always have).
The resultant imbalance of majority Democrat votes will force the GOP into minority status for decades to come.
On top of that, millions of conservatives will leave the GOP because of John McCain’s treachery further deepening the imbalance of GOP votes to Democrat votes.
The final ‘nail in the coffin’ will be his total inaction against chain-migration that will bring millions more Democrat votes into the equation.”
You just described George W. Bush. Like it or not this is the Republican Party. Get on board and work from the inside to fix it our get out of the way.
Then Republicans better get their act together and support the next amnesty bill or they will cede the Hispanic vote to the Dims.
Wow! If Obama can’t decisively win a liberal socialist toilet like New Jersey, he’s toast in civilized states.
The new RNC and the new GOP. Now we will be able to win in a landslide thanks to the new blood being brought in thanks to John McCain. Independents, McCain Democrats, and Hispanics are all important to the new Republican coalition.
Hispanics voted 70-30 against the GOP in 1988, the first election after the Reagan amnesty. They’ll vote 75-25 against the GOP after the next one, and 80-20 against the GOP after the amnestied illegals begin voting. And that’s even if the GOP leads the charge for the amnesty proposal.
You’re a Democrat troll.
Yes, it’s you. There are many states automatically Democrat.
Interesting point.
I think in areas where people have not “mixed in” and have a history of thinking of themselves as hyphenated Americans
(I hate it when people hyphenate me because of my last name) instead of just plain Americans, this is true.
New Jersey has come far in the pat few years in being more inclusive, but it still contains ethnic commnunities where people identify closely with their ancestral origins.
Barone is right and there a boatload of “progressive” whites and Hispanics that wont be voting for a Black white wine liberal who grew up Muslim.(ie NJ , Mi,WI, Pa are all in play) You can throw your little formula in the terlit.
Are you of the view that much of Obama’s support is anti-HRC and little else?
More like vice versa. She'd have been eliminated a while ago if not for "anti-Black" Hispanics and working class whites. Thats why he cant seem to close the deal, despite the whole hearted support of the media elite, IMO.
I don’t believe this poll. This may shock you, but Hillary supporters will lie to pollsters by saying they would vote for McCain over Obama bin liberal.
Actually, didn’t NJ just pass a law stating that there electoral votes will go to the winner of the national popular vote? If so then there is no point in campaigning there. It also places it up for grabs for the Republicans for the first time in years.
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