America's grain stocks running short (food security and export control?)

The Grand Island Independent ^ | 02/24/08 | By Robert Pore

[TigerLikesRooster]

America's grain stocks running short

By Robert Pore robert.pore@theindependent.com

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Global demand for grain and oilseeds is at record levels, causing the nation's grain stocks to reach critically low levels, according to Purdue University agricultural economist Chris Hurt.

With a weak U.S. dollar and global demand so high, foreign buyers are outbidding domestic buyers for American grain, Hurt said.

"Food consumers worldwide are going to have to pay more," Hurt said. "We ended 2007 with our monthly inflation rate on food nearly 5 percent higher. I think we'll see times in 2008 where the food inflation rate might be as much as 6 percent."

Increasing food costs will ignite the debate on food security this year, Hurt said.

"We'll have discussions about whether we should allow the foreign sector to buy our food," he said. "Is food a strategic item that we need to keep in our country?"

The USDA recently released a revised forecast for agricultural exports, predicting a record of $101 billion for fiscal year 2008.

According to the U.S. Grains Council, a significant increase in feed grain exports buoyed the forecasts. Specifically, the forecast for coarse grain exports is raised to 70 million tons, up 2 million tons since November. Corn and sorghum exports are up $2.4 billion from November. Coarse grain exports are forecast at $14.1 billion, $4.3 billion above last year's level.

Hurt said the 2007 U.S. wheat crop is virtually sold out, while domestic soybean stocks soon will fall below a 20-day supply. Corn inventories are stronger, but with demand from export markets, the livestock industry and ethanol plants, supplies also could be just as scarce for the 2008 crop.

More than 70 percent of Nebraska corn crop this year could go to ethanol production.

But what concerns Hurt the most is weather. Adverse weather could trim crop yields this year and cause crop prices to skyrocket even further.

Last year, Nebraska had a record corn crop of nearly 1.5 billion bushels. But rainfall was exceptional last year, especially during the growing season, which helped increase crop yields.

He said recent cash prices for wheat, soybeans and corn are up dramatically from two years ago. Wheat prices have been near $10 a bushel, more than $6 a bushel higher. Cash prices for soybeans are about $13 a bushel, up more than $7 a bushel. Corn is pricing at almost $5 a bushel, an increase of greater than $3 a bushel.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Now flesh it our a bit.

You need me to flesh out how supply and demand work? LOL!

[Balding_Eagle]

Have you even read my posts? Why would you ask something so stupid?

Remember that Russian crop export thing I mentioned earlier? It is obvious to anyone but an ill mannered dumbkuff that I’ve actually lived supply and demand.

I think even you realize that your posts show you don’t know shit about farming, the effect of price controls, or how to modify what we have now to get the governement out while maintaining our food supply.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Have you even read my posts?

Yes.

Why would you ask something so stupid?

Maybe you can explain what I need to flesh out?

Remember that Russian crop export thing I mentioned earlier?

Yes. Government interference cost you money. Kinda like the farm programs you were in cost me money.

I think even you realize that your posts show you don’t know shit about farming,

Oh, I have to be an expert on farming before I can criticize farm programs which distort markets.

the effect of price controls

They distort market signals and lead to overproduction, price crashes, reduction in production, price spikes, etc, etc, etc.

[am452]

If they can make money at it, great. If they can't, great. If they make money, they should expand production. If they can't make money, they should reduce their production or go out of business.

Hey don't protect the Amnerican farmer. We can then buy our food from other countries who might make it cheaper. LOL. So then we can rely on other countries for our food production. I'll gladly pay a little more for food knowing we have safe, reliable and ready supply at all times from our own American farmers.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Hey don't protect the Amnerican farmer.

Hey, don't hand my tax dollars to the American farmer.

We can then buy our food from other countries who might make it cheaper. LOL.

If that's what you want to do, go for it.

I'll gladly pay a little more for food knowing we have safe, reliable and ready supply at all times from our own American farmers.

If that's what you want to do, go for it.

You really shouldn't support big government welfare programs. People might think you're not really a conservative.

[1rudeboy]

I'll gladly pay a little more for food knowing we have safe, reliable and ready supply at all times from our own American farmers.

What's stopping you now?

[1rudeboy]

I think that was Milton Friedman’s,

[Toddsterpatriot]

Was my path too complicated for you?

Get the government out of it. Prices will rise and fall according to supply and demand. Sound good to you?

Now flesh it our a bit.

Which of my 4 sentences do I need to flesh out?

[Balding_Eagle]

As I pointed out upthread, your posts are those of someone who doesn’t know jack shit about farming, the agricultural situation, or solutions to the problems associated with our food production systems.

You cover your demonstrated ignorance by arguing in circles, never acknowledging that you’ve raised, and have received an answer to the same question, over and over.

The Bible has specific cautions against being involved in such discussions. I’m done.

[Toddsterpatriot]

I know welfare doesn't work. Even for farmers who claim to be conservative.

Run away. LOL!

[SunkenCiv]

Note: this topic is from 2/25/2008 . Summer's gotten a late start here, mostly I see soybean in the area fields. Gonna be a long, hot, and possibly wet summer. Ah well. Thanks TigerLikesRooster.

[SunkenCiv]

Lower cost of fuel means more ethanol, period. Not what you may have thought...

It's the Obamacare, stupid! One-half gallon of oil at the old recent high prices, in the form of pesticides per bushel of corn, would cost $2 to $3 per bushel. If this were true -- and it clearly isn't -- it should be enough to illustrate to literally anyone that the price of petroleum is quite literally the ONLY thing driving corn prices. And that idiotic piece of agitprop to the right -- from a hydrogen "energy" advocacy site -- also shows the guy in the encounter suit spraying chemical fertilizer, a sight that I've never been privileged to see, what with me *growing up on a farm*. The Bum Rap on Biofuels [2008] Campaign to vilify ethanol revealed [2008] Oil Price Pressure Driving Global Switch to Biofuels [2006]

[Carry_Okie]

Ethanol.

[Carry_Okie]

Every great civilization that has abused its topsoil has crashed. We’re using natural gas to convert into into fuel, an apocalyptically stupid idea. Even now, when we clearly have the capacity to produce sufficient gasoline to be energy independent for over a century, we go on as if building our energy policy around the Iowa caucuses is at all sane.