Posted on 02/25/2008 5:08:27 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
America's grain stocks running short
By Robert Pore robert.pore@theindependent.com
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Global demand for grain and oilseeds is at record levels, causing the nation's grain stocks to reach critically low levels, according to Purdue University agricultural economist Chris Hurt.
With a weak U.S. dollar and global demand so high, foreign buyers are outbidding domestic buyers for American grain, Hurt said.
"Food consumers worldwide are going to have to pay more," Hurt said. "We ended 2007 with our monthly inflation rate on food nearly 5 percent higher. I think we'll see times in 2008 where the food inflation rate might be as much as 6 percent."
Increasing food costs will ignite the debate on food security this year, Hurt said.
"We'll have discussions about whether we should allow the foreign sector to buy our food," he said. "Is food a strategic item that we need to keep in our country?"
The USDA recently released a revised forecast for agricultural exports, predicting a record of $101 billion for fiscal year 2008.
According to the U.S. Grains Council, a significant increase in feed grain exports buoyed the forecasts. Specifically, the forecast for coarse grain exports is raised to 70 million tons, up 2 million tons since November. Corn and sorghum exports are up $2.4 billion from November. Coarse grain exports are forecast at $14.1 billion, $4.3 billion above last year's level.
Hurt said the 2007 U.S. wheat crop is virtually sold out, while domestic soybean stocks soon will fall below a 20-day supply. Corn inventories are stronger, but with demand from export markets, the livestock industry and ethanol plants, supplies also could be just as scarce for the 2008 crop.
More than 70 percent of Nebraska corn crop this year could go to ethanol production.
But what concerns Hurt the most is weather. Adverse weather could trim crop yields this year and cause crop prices to skyrocket even further.
Last year, Nebraska had a record corn crop of nearly 1.5 billion bushels. But rainfall was exceptional last year, especially during the growing season, which helped increase crop yields.
He said recent cash prices for wheat, soybeans and corn are up dramatically from two years ago. Wheat prices have been near $10 a bushel, more than $6 a bushel higher. Cash prices for soybeans are about $13 a bushel, up more than $7 a bushel. Corn is pricing at almost $5 a bushel, an increase of greater than $3 a bushel.
So, how will raising tariffs and barriers to trade fix those problems? LOL!
—Yeah, no kidding. Think that might cost jobs?—
Economies bounce back from job loss. We had 25-30 percent unemployment in the US ca. 1932. By 1941 it was down to 9 percent. Germany was even worse; it had 50 percent unemployment when FDR took office here. By 1939 it had virtually full employment. Unemployment reached over 10 percent in 1991-1982; by the mid-90s it was below 5 percent.
—Would it drop back to the level before you hiked tariffs?—
Yes, because energy procured locally would be immune to the speculation and price hikes that oil on the global market is subject to. Also, the hidden costs I mentioned (and you ignored) would no longer be a factor.
Higher prices and lost jobs is no problem, because we'll bounce back? LOL!
Yes, because energy procured locally would be immune to the speculation and price hikes that oil on the global market is subject to.
First of all, oil is priced globally, so even if we produced 80% of our oil here, we'd still pay the market price. Second, any oil we produce in ANWR or offshore has a higher production cost than oil in the Middle East.
Also, the hidden costs I mentioned (and you ignored) would no longer be a factor.
Great, you want to spend less on the military. Maybe you should make that recommendation on a new thread.
Put some numbers with all that.
I did.
Put some numbers with all that. I did.
Milk programs make my milk more expensive. Ethanol mandates make my corn more expensive. It also makes all the products fed by corn or including corn more expensive. Sugar tariffs and quotas make products that include sugar more expensive.
Which products are made cheaper by government programs?
"If you put the government in charge of the Sahara Desert,,,in 10 years there would be a critical shortage of sand".
Enough said.
—even if we produced 80% of our oil here, we’d still pay the market price—
If we produced 80 percent of our oil here, we could uncouple domestic oil markets from global speculation. Thus, oil prices would be SOLELY determined by DOMESTIC supply and demand.
-Higher prices and lost jobs is no problem, because we’ll bounce back? LOL!—
I just showed you historical examples proving we would bounce back. You choose to ignore them.
—Great, you want to spend less on the military. Maybe you should make that recommendation on a new thread.—
With fewer defense responsibilities we could spend less and still have as good if not better defense than we do now.
Markets don't work that way. Sorry.
I just showed you historical examples proving we would bounce back. You choose to ignore them.
I ignored your point because it was stupid.
We don't need to do this. Economies bounce back from job loss.
Let me summarize. The farmers are now happy, because the prices they receive at market finally allow them to exit the farm programs, something they’ve wanted to do for decades.
You’re happy, because now the farmers are no longer in the farm programs.
With everyone happy, there’s no fuss.
Excellent, we can finally end the programs.
You’re happy, because now the farmers are no longer in the farm programs.
I'm unhappy because the ethanol mandates, milk programs and sugar quotas are still inflating the price of food.
If the ethanol mandates were removed, you and the farmers would start whining again.
Government interference makes food more expensive, not less expensive. I'm sorry you don't realize that. I'm sorry that you can't admit that.
—Economies bounce back from job loss.—
Technically that’s true. But better the jobs be well-paying manufacturing jobs than low-skilled service sector jobs in fast-food, retail etc. Those jobs don’t really produce anything tangible, and in the case of retail jobs, merely sell goods produced overseas (especially China).
Let's make all our gym shoes in America. Those are gonna be some high-skilled, high paying jobs sewing those things together. While we're at it, we need a good domestic plastic lawn flamingo industry in America.
If those ever get cut off in time of war, we'll never be able to make them here. Once the skills are lost, they're gone for good.
Over 50 years experience of the Cheap Food for Consumers Program refute your position.
Current food prices reflect what they would have been for the last 50 years without the programs.
Get used to them, farmers are no longer obligated to present you with cheap food.
Please, if you can, walk thru step by step how the Federal interference with the market makes food cheaper. Don't forget to include the taxes that are spent on the programs.
Current food prices reflect what they would have been for the last 50 years without the programs.
They reflect the distortion of the ethanol mandates, among other things.
Get used to them, farmers are no longer obligated to present you with cheap food.
I don't want them to present me with cheap food. I want them to present me with food without government mandated market distortions.
I agree that calling the defense budget a 'subsidy' to oil is incorrect.
However, Gulf War I was fought specifically to allow the oil companies to continue to operate in area, and continue the free flow of oil to the world. That clearly was a subsidy to the oil companies, one that benefited the oil companies and the American public both.
If we hadn't fought that war, the oil companies would have been forced to negotiate with Sadam, and while the outcome might have been acceptable to the oil interests, they would not have accrued to the best interests of the United States.
See post #208
No. They haven't saved me money. Show me that I'm wrong.
Since I don’t know your personal situation, and I don’t pay much attention to the detail of just how much we spend at the grocery store either, I’ll speak generally.
Based on the outrage expressed on FR and elsewhere about food costs; I’m thinking that grocery cost for an average family of four is going to go up much more than $280 in 2007 compared to recent years past.
Yeah, prices are going up. Why aren't the farm programs you love keeping food cheap?
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