Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room

Paul Chefurka ^ | 2007 | Paul Chefurka

[ScratInTheHat]

As we all know but are sometimes reluctant to contemplate, oil is a finite, non-renewable resource. This automatically means that its use is not sustainable. If the use of oil is not sustainable, then of course the added carrying capacity the oil has provided is likewise unsustainable. Carrying capacity has been added to the world in direct proportion to the use of oil, and the disturbing implication is that if our oil supply declines, the carrying capacity of the world will automatically fall with it.

These two observations (that oil has expanded the world's carrying capacity and oil use is unsustainable) combine to yield a further implication. While humanity has apparently not yet reached the carrying capacity of a world with oil, we are already in drastic overshoot when you consider a world without oil. In fact our population today is at least five times what it was before oil came on the scene, and it is still growing. If this sustaining resource were to be exhausted, our population would have no option but to decline to the level supportable by the world's lowered carrying capacity.

[expat_panama]

oil is a finite, non-renewable

So is the earth and the sun; in fact, most of their usable 9 billion years have already been mindlessly and greedily consumed..  Sure, nobody seems to worry much about it because we all know that there's plenty of earth and sun left for us to enjoy while we leisurely find replacements; but I say the same applies to oil.

[353FMG]

>Stop it, please ... you’re killin’ me.<

People still don’t understand the difference in BTU value between a barrel of crude, or gasoline for that matter, and a barrel of ethanol. They also do not understand how many BTUs it takes to make a barrel of ethanol from sugar cane vs. a barrle of gasoline from crude oil.

Always remember: sugar is made for sweetening and ethanol (with a few additive) is made for drinking.

[Gandalf_The_Gray]

Just remember that the current population of the earth could fit into an area the size of Texas - 35 people to an acre.

Hmmm... Does that acre have enough "fertility" to feed the 35 people living on it?

I seem to recall reading that feeding a family of four by subsistence farming takes more then two acres.

Regards,
GtG

[hellbender]

a fantasy written by people without the vaguest understanding of geology, posted by people that literally believe the theory they're attacking is that "oil comes from dinosaurs."

LOL. It sure didn't take long enough for people to show up and reveal their ignorance by posting about the alleged production of oil by "dinosaurs." You're right, of course.

[ScratInTheHat]

So if you took the energy output of that windmill it could produce all the energy it takes to smelt the ore, run the machines, etc. etc. without any other energy from any other source to reproduce itself?

That is a tall order.

I just wonder how long it would have to run just to heat a blast furnace one time.

Most of it is a product of cheap oil, or coal.

[oldenuff2no]

Thanks

[tubaplayer]

And just how long will it take to build that amount of nuclear plants?

And how long will the uranium mines last?

[tubaplayer]

Unfortunately, the abiotic response singularly fails, in all cases, to explain why 60% + of the worlds oil fields are in depletion.

I don’t have a problem with whether it’s biotic or abiotic - whatever!

Truth is we are approaching crunch time when, however it is produced, we are not getting it out of the ground fast enough.

[tubaplayer]

Yep, the people starve. Good call!

[tubaplayer]

Yes, I agree, the supplies are there. Can they get it out of the ground at multiple millions of barrels a day?

Don’t think so! So in the larger picture it’s a dead donkey.

[tubaplayer]

What happens when you have to remove the technology?

E.g. no more oil based pesticides, plastics, fertilizers, etc??

[AndrewB]

"all any of us really needs is a warm place during the winter and food to eat."

Don't forget comfortable shoes.

[tubaplayer]

Good post, RightWhale

[tubaplayer]

“signalled to the world at large by a slow rise in price over the period of several decades”

So, just how do you explain, whilst looking at the oil production graphs, why a barrel of oil has gone from $30 to >$100 in about two years?

[tubaplayer]

Go fetch then, boy

[tubaplayer]

Agreed!

[tubaplayer]

Comfortable and *servicable* shoes ;)

[TheLion]

They say now that the moon Titan has 100 times more oil than the earth. So much for the old theories. The Russians figured out abiotic oil around 1900. They think we are a bunch of idiots.

[DonnerT]

I’d like someone to explain how that biologic mass got 5 miles down.

[ScratInTheHat]

Ever heard of breeder reactors?