Posted on 02/19/2008 4:30:22 PM PST by SandRat
WASHINGTON, Feb. 19, 2008 – The anticipated landing tomorrow of the space shuttle Atlantis will open the window of opportunity for the U.S. military to shoot down a dying intelligence satellite headed toward Earth, Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said today.
President Bush has authorized Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates to give the shoot-down order, and the secretary received a briefing on the plan today, Morrell said. The secretary is prepared to make that call from the road, if necessary, during his nine-day, around-the-world trip that begins tomorrow, he said.
Marine Gen. James E. Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters last week the window of opportunity for shooting down the satellite would last seven or eight days.
“We have a pretty wide aperture with which to take this shot,” Morrell said today. “I think the commanders that are evaluating this are looking at all the conditions that could impact this to make sure that when we do take this shot, it can be as successful as possible.”
Cartwright, Air Force Gen. Kevin P. Chilton, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, and other experts across the military and U.S. government “are evaluating the situation and will advise the secretary when they have a shot to take,” Morrell said.
Pentagon officials began studying the situation in early January when it become clear that a malfunctioning U.S. spy satellite could cause death or injury if it fell in a populated area. Of particular concern is that the satellite could release hydrazine, a toxic chemical used as a maneuvering fuel.
A Pentagon plan was put together to strike the incoming satellite just above the atmosphere, rupturing the hydrazine tank in the process.
All systems appear to be “go” for the launch order. The Navy has prepared for the mission by modifying three SM-3 missiles aboard Aegis ships to strike the satellite, Cartwright said last week.
The international community has been informed of the mission and why it’s being conducted, Morrell said. “So I think everybody is up to date on what our thinking is and what our course of action is going to be, and we will keep them apprised of how it develops over the coming days,” he said.
The Federal Aviation Administration today issued a 24-hour notice warning aircraft and ships to steer clear of the projected shoot-down zone in the Pacific. New warnings will be issued every 24 hours during the anticipated shoot-down window, Morrell said.
The Pentagon will issue a written statement within an hour of the launch and will hold a news conference regarding the effort within the following hours, Morrell told reporters. “We can probably tell you at that point whether or not there has been an intercept,” but not necessarily if it destroyed the fuel tank, he said. “That may require some additional time,” he acknowledged.
Cartwright and other commanders associated with the mission “have a high confidence this engagement will indeed be successful, and I think Secretary Gates shares that confidence,” Morrell told reporters.
Morrell emphasized that the mission isn’t designed to test U.S. anti-satellite capabilities. “We did that in 1985. Been there, done that,” he said.
“This operation is designed to alleviate a threat to human beings on this planet. There is a large tank of hydrazine fuel onboard that satellite that would pose a significant threat to people within the immediate vicinity of it if it were to hit land,” Morrell said. “So not wishing to take that risk, the president has asked -- ordered -- this department to shoot down that satellite.
“And that is what we are now evaluating,” he continued, “and that is what the secretary will decide to do, based upon the advice of the commanders.”
This was my understanding, but perhaps because of where and when they want to launch the missle the shuttle might just have been too close at that particular time. Still it sounds like it would still be incredibly unlikely that the shuttle could have been hit by either the missle or flying debris.
It’s all about the energy imparted to the pieces of the satellite. Invariably some of them will achieve stable orbits. They wouldn’t risk 7 people, even if it’s less than 10% (which I’m not sure it is) not for some stupid international pissing contest. Nobody is that stupid.
At a relative speed of 22,000 mph, the interceptor and pieces of the panel will be vaporized, the resulting explosion like effect would likely break up the satellite anyway, just not into as tiny pieces as if they get a hit on the main body. But since the panel is probably only partly deployed, if that. A body hit or a clean miss would seem much more likely.
I guess it would be hateful to hope the wreckage could drop on that slab of rock in Mecca?
Micahel Bay couldn’t haven written this.
no way...you’re pulling my leg.
Now we dont want a repeat of TWA 800 with the shuttle now do we?
Current Location of USA 193 as of this posting
Courtisy of HeavensAbove.com
Notice the area in the N Pacicic north of Hawaii.. thats where they will take the shot
Most of the debries will deorbit burn up with the surviving parts landing in N Canada and the North Atlantic
If they get a solid hit, the pieces will be like grains of sand, mostly. The atmospheric drag will result in them coming down, and burning up, much sooner than if they let the thing just fall on your head. The satellite is coming down, full of hydrazine, whether we do anything about it or not. I'd just as soon it comes down in small pieces. Yea a small fraction would probably come down later than the large mass would have, but they'll be much less likely to cause damage. And they will not achieve stable orbits, that is they will decay faster than the big satellite's orbit was already decaying.
By contrast the Chinese weather bird was in a much higher orbit, 537 miles verses about 120-130 for the reconsat at the time of interception, and it was pretty stable. Thus the debris would mostly be in that same orbit, some higher, some lower, some decaying faster, and thus moving to lower orbits, if still fairly slowly. They apparently also did a hit to kill type intercept.
I can't decide whether to drink all day or stay sober.
Hoping for opportunties in the days and weeks to come to see debris re-entering. Should be a lot of it!
I still can't understand why the shuttle couldn't have been employed to retrieve the ailing satellite and bring it back for repairs - unless NASA knowingly lied all the while about the STS program's planned purpose.
Close enough...the satellite is in about a 58 degree orbit from what I’ve heard, and the shuttle is in a 56 degree orbit. How about that huh?
Hope we don’t have a fatal head-on collision!
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