It’s all about the energy imparted to the pieces of the satellite. Invariably some of them will achieve stable orbits. They wouldn’t risk 7 people, even if it’s less than 10% (which I’m not sure it is) not for some stupid international pissing contest. Nobody is that stupid.
I guess it would be hateful to hope the wreckage could drop on that slab of rock in Mecca?
Current Location of USA 193 as of this posting
Courtisy of HeavensAbove.com
Notice the area in the N Pacicic north of Hawaii.. thats where they will take the shot
Most of the debries will deorbit burn up with the surviving parts landing in N Canada and the North Atlantic
If they get a solid hit, the pieces will be like grains of sand, mostly. The atmospheric drag will result in them coming down, and burning up, much sooner than if they let the thing just fall on your head. The satellite is coming down, full of hydrazine, whether we do anything about it or not. I'd just as soon it comes down in small pieces. Yea a small fraction would probably come down later than the large mass would have, but they'll be much less likely to cause damage. And they will not achieve stable orbits, that is they will decay faster than the big satellite's orbit was already decaying.
By contrast the Chinese weather bird was in a much higher orbit, 537 miles verses about 120-130 for the reconsat at the time of interception, and it was pretty stable. Thus the debris would mostly be in that same orbit, some higher, some lower, some decaying faster, and thus moving to lower orbits, if still fairly slowly. They apparently also did a hit to kill type intercept.