More on a Hillary Comeback

US News ^ | Feb. 19, 2008 | by Michael Barone

[jdm]

With the help of thegreenpapers.com the invaluable Green Papers, I made some calculations in a best-case scenario for Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas primaries. I assumed that Clinton won statewide in each case, and that Obama carried only congressional districts (or in Texas, state Senate districts) dominated by upscale white voters and/or black voters. This is an especially optimistic assumption in Wisconsin, where Clinton currently trails Obama by 4 or 5 percent in public polls. The results are as follows: a 44-30 delegate edge in Wisconsin, an 83-58 delegate edge in Ohio, and an 82-41 delegate edge in Texas. Overall this is an 80-delegate advantage, based (again I emphasize) on optimistic assumptions.

This would be enough to erase the current 58-delegate edge Obama has in total delegates according to Real Clear Politics. But not enough to overcome the 137-delegate edge he has among "pledged delegates," that is, those chosen in caucuses and primaries. And it doesn't account for the fact that Texas on March 4 will also have caucuses to select another 67 delegates. The Obama campaign has swamped the Clinton campaign in almost all the caucuses and probably has far more in the way of organization in Texas's 254 counties than the Clinton campaign does.

What about the other post-February contests? Here's my brief take on each:

• Rhode Island primary, March 4. Clinton has done well with downscale Catholic voters, which accounts for most of the Rhode Island electorate. More like Massachusetts, which she carried, than Connecticut, which she lost.

• Vermont primary, March 4. Obama all the way.

• Wyoming county caucuses, March 8. If it's anything like Idaho, Obama.

• Mississippi primary, March 11. Mississippi has the highest black percentage of any state, which suggests Obama will win. But if, as in Alabama and Louisiana, a fairly large number of whites choose to participate, then Clinton could make it competitive.

• Democrats Abroad caucuses, March 15. I have to think Obama carries these worldly types.

• Pennsylvania primary, April 22. The Pennsylvania numbers look a lot like the Ohio numbers.

• Guam territorial convention, May 3 (tentative date). No clue.

• Indiana primary, May 6. 9 percent black, 4 percent Hispanic. The Democratic primary electorate looks a lot like Ohio's. Could be favorable to Clinton.

• North Carolina primary, May 6. 22 percent black, 5 percent Hispanic. The Democratic primary electorate is liable to be 30-35 percent black, possibly more, which is favorable to Obama. So is the fact that some of the Democratic primary electorate (especially in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill triangle, less so in Clinton) is upscale and culturally liberal. So half the electorate is tilted his way. This looks like Virginia with a considerably smaller Northern Virginia: Obama country, but by a considerably lesser margin.

• West Virginia primary, May 13. Downscale, elderly, and overwhelmingly white, the primary electorate here presumably favors Clinton.

• Kentucky primary, May 20. The Democratic primary electorate here is not as downscale, elderly, and overwhelmingly white as West Virginia's, but it comes fairly close. Favorable to Clinton.

• Oregon primary, May 20. Obama won't likely win here by as much as he did in the Washington caucuses, but he's likely to win.

• Montana primary, June 3. An interesting question. Obama won't be as strong here as in Western state caucuses.

• South Dakota primary, June 3. Former Senator Tom Daschle is actively supporting Obama, but the state demographically looks more pro-Clinton.

• Puerto Rico caucuses, June 7. I have written on these elsewhere. An interesting continuing tale.

My bottom line take: The turf looks fairly favorable to Clinton, provided she wins Ohio and Texas March 4. Not favorable enough, perhaps, for her to overtake Obama in "pledged" delegates, but enough to keep the overall delegate count excruciatingly close, unless the superdelegates start cascading to Obama. (Maybe they have: Congressman John Lewis has evidently switched.) But if Clinton loses either Ohio or Texas, that's a sign that the ground thereafter will be less favorable to her. Losing Ohio would suggest she can't carry Pennsylvania or Indiana. Losing Texas suggests she can't carry Mississippi, North Carolina, West Virginia, or Kentucky. Losing either probably means the superdelegate cascade starts in torrents, and she falls well behind in total delegate count. In which case her candidacy is probably effectively over.

And even if she wins Ohio and Texas, she's still not likely, I think (no, I haven't done the delegate arithmetic yet), to accumulate enough "pledged" delegates to win without an edge in superdelegates, and perhaps without getting the Florida and, more problematically, Michigan delegations seated. But I certainly don't see her quitting in these circumstances.

[Red Badger]

There will be a bare knuckles fist fight over Florida and Michigan................

[Jeff Head]

IMHO, at this point, the only way Hillary wins is if enough Repubs cross over and get her the victory. I know of numerous friends and relatives in Texas who intend to do just that.

Hillary, IMHO, is an easier win in November than Obama...but that's just my opinion.

[ClearCase_guy]

I want to hear what Michelle Obama has to say after Hillary snags the nomination at the convention.

[palmer]

Your logic would be fine, except our candidate is Senator McCain.

[ripley]

“a hillary comeback...”

means that they’ve mastered the manipulation of the voting machines and that she is now inevitable.

(imho)

[al baby]

And mine too Obama is a shoe in in November Hillary would be easy to beat

[ghost of nixon]

wow - Florida & Michigan are becoming more & more important...no reason for Hillary to quit now. Obama is still inexperienced, inconsistent, and being carried by favorable media coverage.

[palmer]

Senators never win, and calling Hillary a Senator is a stretch.

[Snardius]

At this point, if Hillary wins the nomination it will be because of skullduggery on her part and the Democrat party will disintegrate into a civil war...I can live with that...

[Red Badger]

If it’s STILL close after Ohio and Texas, the H! campaign will be going ballistic over Florida and Michigan delegations. She’ll be calling Howard Dean every 15 minutes demanding that they be “counted”...........

[societygirl]

Michelle Obama is a loudmouthed loose cannon. I will miss her, lol. If Barack got the nom, she would DESTROY him. Kinda like Bill deep-sixing Hillary. Can’t the Dems control their whacked out spouses?

[John D]

Your logic would be fine, except our candidate is Senator McCain.

Maybe your candidate, but not mine. I knew the crazy one. He by no means is my candidate. I will only vote for Republicans in November, and McCrazy is NO Republican.

[Red in Blue PA]

If your logic is wrong (and I believe it is) and she wins the GE, please think of the possible ramifications for the next 4 years.

Number 1- FR may be shut down. (And no that is not an exaggeration)

[societygirl]

I could WATCH that. Get TONS of popcorn out. The Dems never do ANYTHING without violence. And, the spectacle of a white woman and a black man going at it would confirm every negative stereotype about Dems, and would destroy them in the fall campaign. Cheers!

[Jeff Head]

Even with all of his many problems...he would be much less disasterous for the nation, IMHO, than either democrat.

On every issue we have huge problems with McCain (ie. campaign finance, immigration, enviro issue, etc), we would lose the same ground and more with either Hillary or Obama.

With McCain, we at least have a chance to hold some ground in the WOT, on abortion, on the SCOTUS, and with taxes. We know we would lose big time on all of those with Obama or Hillary too.

[palmer]

I agree, but you’re just reinforcing my point: McCrazy has zero chance in Nov. whether against Obama or Hillary. That’s why we need to Stop Hillary Now.

[palmer]

I agree with what you said and will vote for McCrazy, but it will be a waste of a vote. The media fix is in.

[Jeff Head]

I believe the same will be true of Obama. He sits further to the left on almost all issues than even Hillary...and she is an abject marxists powermonger IMHO.

[Brilliant]

Looks like New Hampshire is aiming to keep its record of selecting the loser intact, at least as far as the Dems are concerned.