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2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
InTrade ^ | Monday, February 18, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 02/18/2008 6:27:50 PM PST by Momaw Nadon



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008election; election; electionpresident; elections; electoral; electoralvotes; intrade; presidential; projected; votes
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Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 218 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 320 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 230.61 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 02/18/2008 6:27:51 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
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Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

2 posted on 02/18/2008 6:28:13 PM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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3 posted on 02/18/2008 6:28:35 PM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Aeronaut; angkor; annyokie; beckysueb; BlessedByLiberty; bluefish; Bogeygolfer; Brandon; ...


If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.


4 posted on 02/18/2008 6:29:14 PM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

That may be the sentiment now but its a long way till November..... and the leftists running won’t be so popular by summers end.


5 posted on 02/18/2008 6:34:31 PM PST by Republic Rocker
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To: Momaw Nadon

it remains true... win PA/OH/FL, win the presidency.

(first post in like 3 yrs btw OMGBBQ)


6 posted on 02/18/2008 6:35:52 PM PST by Libertarian4Bush (the underwear goes UNDER the pants! that's why they call it under-******-wear!)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Missouri and Florida swapped from last week?


7 posted on 02/18/2008 6:40:16 PM PST by Ingtar (Haley Barbour 2012, Because he has experience in Disaster Recovery. - ejonesie22)
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To: Ingtar
Missouri and Florida swapped from last week?

That is correct.

8 posted on 02/18/2008 6:41:21 PM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Libertarian4Bush

Still a long way out but this gets ingrained in the voters and they get a fixed mindset. Could be hosed.


9 posted on 02/18/2008 6:41:53 PM PST by shankbear (Al-Qaeda grew while Monica blew)
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To: Momaw Nadon

It looks about right. If Hillary pulls off the nomination however, it might be closer. Either way, we are still looking at at Dem president for 2008.


10 posted on 02/18/2008 6:42:21 PM PST by outofstyle (There's a rake at the gates of Hell tonight)
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To: outofstyle

I’d say this is way off, as I expect McCain to get the crap kicked out of him. I think it would be difficult for him to carry more than a dozen states.


11 posted on 02/18/2008 7:02:54 PM PST by bushinohio
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To: Momaw Nadon

I still think that MO, AR, TN, VA will flip by election day. Once the media starts telling the truth about McCain, he will have serious problems in the border of the South.


12 posted on 02/18/2008 7:03:21 PM PST by Ingtar (Haley Barbour 2012, Because he has experience in Disaster Recovery. - ejonesie22)
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To: Momaw Nadon

These kinds of “guesses” are worth nothing at this point.

Kerry projected to win Electoral College, 280 to 248

http://boards.historychannel.com/thread.jspa?threadID=300027006&tstart=45&mod=1098494809892


13 posted on 02/18/2008 7:04:11 PM PST by Names Ash Housewares
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To: Momaw Nadon

I think I’ll buy Virginia, Texas and Louisiana if Obama is the nominee.


14 posted on 02/18/2008 8:17:49 PM PST by Founding Father (The Pedophile moHAMmudd (PBUH---Pigblood be upon him))
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To: Names Ash Housewares

thanks...nothing is right on. What are they trying to do, demoralize the republicans already?


15 posted on 02/18/2008 8:22:19 PM PST by fabian
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To: Momaw Nadon

The 15 states that got to pick shouldn’t have picked a candidate that can’t win. National primary day now.


16 posted on 02/18/2008 8:23:23 PM PST by mysterio
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To: Momaw Nadon

This is an exercise in futility until the nominees and their running mates are known.

That said, the GOP is given less than an even chance of winning FL. A poll posted earlier tonight showed McCain with a healthy lead over Hillary and a huge lead over Obama. IIRC it was 6 over Hillie in FL and 16 over Barama.


17 posted on 02/18/2008 9:25:00 PM PST by freespirited (The worst Republican is far preferable to the best Democrat.)
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To: Ingtar

“I still think that MO, AR, TN, VA will flip by election day. Once the media starts telling the truth about McCain, he will have serious problems in the border of the South.”

McCain is the most known quantity in the race.

As people know the real left-liberal obama, mccain’s job gets easier.


18 posted on 02/18/2008 10:37:37 PM PST by WOSG (The 4-fold path to save America - Think right, act right, speak right, vote right!)
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To: Founding Father

Obama doesn’t have a prayer in any of those states.


19 posted on 02/19/2008 12:07:42 AM PST by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Ingtar

I live in Tennessee. So far solidly red.


20 posted on 02/19/2008 12:11:03 AM PST by beckysueb (Pray for our troops , America, and President Bush)
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