[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 218 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 320 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 230.61 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[outofstyle]

It looks about right. If Hillary pulls off the nomination however, it might be closer. Either way, we are still looking at at Dem president for 2008.

[Names Ash Housewares]

These kinds of “guesses” are worth nothing at this point.

Kerry projected to win Electoral College, 280 to 248

http://boards.historychannel.com/thread.jspa?threadID=300027006&tstart=45&mod=1098494809892

[Founding Father]

I think I’ll buy Virginia, Texas and Louisiana if Obama is the nominee.

[mysterio]

The 15 states that got to pick shouldn’t have picked a candidate that can’t win. National primary day now.

[freespirited]

This is an exercise in futility until the nominees and their running mates are known.

That said, the GOP is given less than an even chance of winning FL. A poll posted earlier tonight showed McCain with a healthy lead over Hillary and a huge lead over Obama. IIRC it was 6 over Hillie in FL and 16 over Barama.

[Martins kid]

McCain’s chances of winning Ohio in November get lower and lower the more that he is seen sharing a podium with Mike DeWine. DeWine and Taft are reviled by most Republicans. Today he appeared with Mike DeWine near Dayton. It was all over the news and a really bad move on McCain’s part. RINOs DeWine and Taft are pariahs in Ohio.