Posted on 02/11/2008 1:10:17 PM PST by dangus
Friday, Rasmussen didn’t even poll Republicans on their primary choice; the national news media already announced McCain had won the nomination. Saturday Rasmussen did release their poll: McCain trounced Huckabee, 55-24. Sunday, as the nation learned Huckabee was still a candidate, Huckabee improved, but still trailed greatly, 49-29. Monday’s poll shows Huckabee pulling to within 12 points, 46-34.
This seemed in monumental conflict with Gallup, which showed McCain winning over those same three days, 56-25. But now another poll, AP/IPSOS shows the race just about as close as Rasmussen, 44-30. (The GOP establishment should be nervous that Ron Paul also polled at 9% nationally.)
But is it even closer than Rasmussen shows? All three polls were taken over the same time period. Only Rasmussen released results each day. With them having done so, we can extrapolate from the data roughly which percentage of respondents supported each candidate each day. Saturday McCain won 55-24. To have dropped to a 49-29 lead, McCain must only have led in Sunday’s poll, 43-34. And to have dropped further to a 46-34 lead, McCain seems to have actually lost Monday’s poll, 40-44.
Some caution is necessary: When splitting hairs like this, the effect of rounding and statistical error is amplified. Depending on rounding, McCain and Huckabee could have tied at 43 percent in Monday’s poll. And the margin of error for such a small sample is six percent… which means McCain could have gotten six percent more, and Huckabee could have gotten six percent less. Which means McCain could actually have led Huckabee by twelve percent in the most recent day’s polling data. (But, by the same logic, Huckabee could be winning by twenty percent.)
AP/IPSOS’ three day results are very similar to Rasmussen. Unfortunately, AP/IPSOS didn’t release day-to-day numbers. So we can’t tell if Rasmussen’s results are the result of an amazing tightening, or just bizarrely flukish data on Monday’s release cancelling out equally bizarre data the other way on Sunday. But it seems safe to say that AP/IPSOS confirms that Rasmussen’s overall three-day data is realistic.
So why is Gallup’s so skewed in comparison? Gallup polled “voters” not those who were were most likely to vote. It’s likely less politically active voters were less likely to realize that there was still a battle to be fought. Also, Gallup’s polls counted independents, even though independents won’t be allowed to vote in most remaining states.
It’s still worse for McCain coming up. Whereas California, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Delaware, and New Hampshire all have large numbers of moderate Republicans, and all voted for McCain, of the remaining states, that’s only Oregon, Maryland and Vermont tend towards moderates. (I’d also suppose McCain could do well in the military-heavy states of Virginia and Hawaii.) And what happens if McCain voters believe the media hype and don’t bother to vote, while Huckabee’s supporters swarm to the polls?
The notion that Huckabee can’t win simply isn’t at all true. Republican states are mostly winner-take-all, so Huckabee can still nearly every remaining delegate with 51% of the remaining votes. (And even that doesn’t account for the Paul voters.) Even winning scarcely more than half of the remaining delegates could force a brokered convention. Or, more likely, a negotiated victor with Romney supporters and state party leaders picking the winner. Whereas such a deal would haunt Clinton or Obama, who have already considerably tapped potential primary donors, Huckabee could campaign full-throttle on what are legally "primary" funds.
I think the real work now is holding as many House,Senate, and Gubernatorial seats as we can. But what we can do is limited by the crushing defeat McCain will get.
Longer term the focus should be on the midterms and 2012. That’s where the jockeying and platform will be crucial for conservatives...Don’t let the Party Hacks sell a bill of goods about liberal/moderate crap to give McCain a chance to win. HAS HAS NO F’N CHANCE.
Again, the real work will be midterms in 2010 and 2012 Presidency.
>> All he has to do is win 85% of the remaining delegates <<
To win without a negotiated/brokered nomination.
Huckabee: 262
Romney, including non-pledged delegates: 297
Uncommitted: 41
Paul: 21
Thompson: 11
TOTAL DELEGATES WON BY OTHER-THAN-MCCAIN: 632
MCCAIN: 683
DELEGATES AVAILABLE: 1235
That ridiculous mantra of the Washington Post that Huckabee needs 85% of remaining delegates is contemptuously false. With 1235 delegates available, McCain is beating “not-McCain” by 51 delegates.
The point is you’re either (a) one of the McCain lemmings, or (2) a defeatist. Both are poison to conservativism.
However, with McCain we will maintain some important ground IMHO (ie. abortion, the war, and the SCOTUS)...at least much better than with either a Hillary or an Obama.
I cannot let those soldiers who have fought our enemies die in vain...and I cannot let all of those innocents who have died in the abortion holocaust die in vain, particularly when we have a chance in the next cycle to get that majority on the SCOTUS by ceding things to Hillary or Obama.
with McCain we retain the SCOTUS possibility...with Hillary or Obama we cede it completely.
In all the areas where McCain is bad...and there are some doozies and I am spitting mad about it...we will olose just as much if not more ground with Hillary or Obama.
Therefore, in good conscience, not as a vote for McCain so much as a vote to stop those others...if McCain does end up winning the nomination, I will probably vote for him in the general for those reasons.
Clearly, purely on the issues Thomspon, Romney, and others would be better. But if they do not get in at all, they cannot do anything.
Sadly, tragically, so many of our citizens are SO memerized by looks, energy, etc, and other things that have nothing to do with issues, we may have to have something to balance it out. Condi could do that and still give us some very manageable (though not optimum by any means) positions on numerous issues.
It is a sickening, disgusting, and agonizing position we are in.
I am neither...but, hehehe, now whose calling names? Hmmm?
...the point is that your own comparison kind of went up in smoke, huh?
if McCain does end up winning the nomination, I will probably vote for him in the general for those reasons.
I will probably also vote for him against a dem. I’m just saying I will watch rather than be out there campaigning for him like I normally would. Let the bigwigs show us how to get their guy elected.
>> Do you believe that Romney will give his delegates to Huckabee?! Get real man. <<
Give them? No. But Romney almost doesn’t matter. What matters is that the unpledged delegates get the message that McCain is unacceptable. We’re going to the convention. A brokered convention unthinkable? Look at the Democrats’ side:
Hillary has 1115 delegates. Obama has 1049. Hillary needs 910 to win, Obama needs 977. There are 1406 delegates available. Do you see either camp getting the 1406 needed to win?
We’re going to see either (A) two brokered conventions, or (B) a decision made in a metaphorical “smoke-filled room.” Do you think Romney simply gives his delegates to McCain in a smoke-filled room, or someone besides McCain is chosen?
WHOOPS: In my last post, I mean given that Huckabee wins half or more of the remaining primaries, which, admittedly is unlikely.
I think your whisteling past the graveyard. McCain will loose in a land slide and won’t even take his home state against Obama. Obama is the democratic Reagan. He is an empty slate that a tired, dispirited group of people can hang there hopes on!!
The vast political middle want to see problems solved, many don’t care how. McCain will not bring any change nor will Hillary, for both of them it’s obviously about power.
There’s an ocean of difference between “defeatist” and “delusional.”
There’s an ocean of difference between “defeatist” and “delusional.” “Wrong” would be one thing, “delusional” is just unfit for any serious discussion.
Excuse me, but Reagan was no empty slate! If you believe that you are real young and educated in our public schools.
ROFLMAO, do you have some-sort of disability??
>> ...the point is that your own comparison kind of went up in smoke, huh? <<
Hardly. I’d say being down 14-10 in the 4th quarter isn’t that different from being down 683-632. Especially given the existence of winner-take-all and winner-take-most primaries.
D00d! TMI, man... TMI!
'nuff said.
I am no big McCain supporter in the least. Just started all of this out by making the comment, which I stand behind, that the likelihood of Huckabee getting to any path that leads to him having the delegates necessary to win, while not technically impossible, is so improbable as to be almost so close as to be indistinguisshable at this point.
That's the reality.
I also stated, however, that if Huckabee pulls off what he himself deems as such a "miracle", I will be the first to congratulate him.
FRegards.
If there is still a remote chance to sink McQueeg, we need to do it.
I hope McCain Loses to Huckabee by the number of delegates that McCain threw to Huckabee in WV...friggin' sweet!
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