Posted on 02/11/2008 1:10:17 PM PST by dangus
Friday, Rasmussen didn’t even poll Republicans on their primary choice; the national news media already announced McCain had won the nomination. Saturday Rasmussen did release their poll: McCain trounced Huckabee, 55-24. Sunday, as the nation learned Huckabee was still a candidate, Huckabee improved, but still trailed greatly, 49-29. Monday’s poll shows Huckabee pulling to within 12 points, 46-34.
This seemed in monumental conflict with Gallup, which showed McCain winning over those same three days, 56-25. But now another poll, AP/IPSOS shows the race just about as close as Rasmussen, 44-30. (The GOP establishment should be nervous that Ron Paul also polled at 9% nationally.)
But is it even closer than Rasmussen shows? All three polls were taken over the same time period. Only Rasmussen released results each day. With them having done so, we can extrapolate from the data roughly which percentage of respondents supported each candidate each day. Saturday McCain won 55-24. To have dropped to a 49-29 lead, McCain must only have led in Sunday’s poll, 43-34. And to have dropped further to a 46-34 lead, McCain seems to have actually lost Monday’s poll, 40-44.
Some caution is necessary: When splitting hairs like this, the effect of rounding and statistical error is amplified. Depending on rounding, McCain and Huckabee could have tied at 43 percent in Monday’s poll. And the margin of error for such a small sample is six percent… which means McCain could have gotten six percent more, and Huckabee could have gotten six percent less. Which means McCain could actually have led Huckabee by twelve percent in the most recent day’s polling data. (But, by the same logic, Huckabee could be winning by twenty percent.)
AP/IPSOS’ three day results are very similar to Rasmussen. Unfortunately, AP/IPSOS didn’t release day-to-day numbers. So we can’t tell if Rasmussen’s results are the result of an amazing tightening, or just bizarrely flukish data on Monday’s release cancelling out equally bizarre data the other way on Sunday. But it seems safe to say that AP/IPSOS confirms that Rasmussen’s overall three-day data is realistic.
So why is Gallup’s so skewed in comparison? Gallup polled “voters” not those who were were most likely to vote. It’s likely less politically active voters were less likely to realize that there was still a battle to be fought. Also, Gallup’s polls counted independents, even though independents won’t be allowed to vote in most remaining states.
It’s still worse for McCain coming up. Whereas California, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Delaware, and New Hampshire all have large numbers of moderate Republicans, and all voted for McCain, of the remaining states, that’s only Oregon, Maryland and Vermont tend towards moderates. (I’d also suppose McCain could do well in the military-heavy states of Virginia and Hawaii.) And what happens if McCain voters believe the media hype and don’t bother to vote, while Huckabee’s supporters swarm to the polls?
The notion that Huckabee can’t win simply isn’t at all true. Republican states are mostly winner-take-all, so Huckabee can still nearly every remaining delegate with 51% of the remaining votes. (And even that doesn’t account for the Paul voters.) Even winning scarcely more than half of the remaining delegates could force a brokered convention. Or, more likely, a negotiated victor with Romney supporters and state party leaders picking the winner. Whereas such a deal would haunt Clinton or Obama, who have already considerably tapped potential primary donors, Huckabee could campaign full-throttle on what are legally "primary" funds.
That is not name calling that is a fact. Any person who believes that McCain will not be the nominee is delusional.
That’s not what the polls are saying.
“sheep dip”???!?
What are you trying to do? Kill this Tick?
For political reasons alone, I think if McCain got Condi Rice on the ticket, Romney would have his delegates vote for McCain anyway. Against Obama, Condi Rice would be a political trump card.
“That’s not what the polls are saying.”
Golly gee whiz, since when have polls ever been wrong?/s
I wonder how McCain likes Huckabee now?
I bet he’s real happy he gave his WV votes to Hucky.
Delegate totals:
McCain, 706
Not McCain, 632
I do not love McCain in the least. He has severe baggage. But, form my perspective, he is still far better than Hillary or Obama. we need to be getting ready for that fight as soon as possible.
I believe McCain, once he has the delegates, and purely for general election political reasons, could go a long ways towards cementing that general election by getting Condi Rice on his ticket in opposition to Obama.
If McCain loses, it will be by a manageable margin, like Dole's in 1996. The party actually did okay in the congressional elections that year. Huckabee's loss would be overwhelming and realigning. The GOP might even lose Mountain West states like Utah, Wyoming and Montana.
Any Republican could lose Utah? Bwa-ha-ha-ha! Who’s delusional?
So you’re now against the military???
We need a think tank of what to do at the convention.. and beyond..
Cause the democrats WILL WIN.. not MIGHT win..
At the convetion a political declaration of war should be delivered.. or some other radical line in the sand..
WHoops, mixed up the j’s. You didn’t deserve the “who’s delusional” comment.
>> I believe miracles are possible...but I am not holding my breath expecting it. <<
Miracles happen because people are motivated to make them happen. The Giants should thank God you’re not their coach.
we need to be getting ready for that fight as soon as possible.
Go for it Jeff. I will watch. I had three decent picks and the party bigwigs rammed this guy down our throats, so they can show us how they will get him elected.
“So you’re now against the military???”
So now if we are against military rule of our nation, we are “against the military?”
You have GOT to be a lib-plant.
The Giants did not count on a "miracle" in the least. They went out there and played a good football game.
If the Patriots had started the game ahead 72 to 21 and then lost to the Giants...THAT would have been a miracle.
See?
Do you believe that Condi Rice is a good choice for VP?
LOL no. Just wrap up in a condum exposing the... ahem... affected areas all will be well. : )
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