Posted on 02/11/2008 1:10:17 PM PST by dangus
Friday, Rasmussen didn’t even poll Republicans on their primary choice; the national news media already announced McCain had won the nomination. Saturday Rasmussen did release their poll: McCain trounced Huckabee, 55-24. Sunday, as the nation learned Huckabee was still a candidate, Huckabee improved, but still trailed greatly, 49-29. Monday’s poll shows Huckabee pulling to within 12 points, 46-34.
This seemed in monumental conflict with Gallup, which showed McCain winning over those same three days, 56-25. But now another poll, AP/IPSOS shows the race just about as close as Rasmussen, 44-30. (The GOP establishment should be nervous that Ron Paul also polled at 9% nationally.)
But is it even closer than Rasmussen shows? All three polls were taken over the same time period. Only Rasmussen released results each day. With them having done so, we can extrapolate from the data roughly which percentage of respondents supported each candidate each day. Saturday McCain won 55-24. To have dropped to a 49-29 lead, McCain must only have led in Sunday’s poll, 43-34. And to have dropped further to a 46-34 lead, McCain seems to have actually lost Monday’s poll, 40-44.
Some caution is necessary: When splitting hairs like this, the effect of rounding and statistical error is amplified. Depending on rounding, McCain and Huckabee could have tied at 43 percent in Monday’s poll. And the margin of error for such a small sample is six percent… which means McCain could have gotten six percent more, and Huckabee could have gotten six percent less. Which means McCain could actually have led Huckabee by twelve percent in the most recent day’s polling data. (But, by the same logic, Huckabee could be winning by twenty percent.)
AP/IPSOS’ three day results are very similar to Rasmussen. Unfortunately, AP/IPSOS didn’t release day-to-day numbers. So we can’t tell if Rasmussen’s results are the result of an amazing tightening, or just bizarrely flukish data on Monday’s release cancelling out equally bizarre data the other way on Sunday. But it seems safe to say that AP/IPSOS confirms that Rasmussen’s overall three-day data is realistic.
So why is Gallup’s so skewed in comparison? Gallup polled “voters” not those who were were most likely to vote. It’s likely less politically active voters were less likely to realize that there was still a battle to be fought. Also, Gallup’s polls counted independents, even though independents won’t be allowed to vote in most remaining states.
It’s still worse for McCain coming up. Whereas California, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Delaware, and New Hampshire all have large numbers of moderate Republicans, and all voted for McCain, of the remaining states, that’s only Oregon, Maryland and Vermont tend towards moderates. (I’d also suppose McCain could do well in the military-heavy states of Virginia and Hawaii.) And what happens if McCain voters believe the media hype and don’t bother to vote, while Huckabee’s supporters swarm to the polls?
The notion that Huckabee can’t win simply isn’t at all true. Republican states are mostly winner-take-all, so Huckabee can still nearly every remaining delegate with 51% of the remaining votes. (And even that doesn’t account for the Paul voters.) Even winning scarcely more than half of the remaining delegates could force a brokered convention. Or, more likely, a negotiated victor with Romney supporters and state party leaders picking the winner. Whereas such a deal would haunt Clinton or Obama, who have already considerably tapped potential primary donors, Huckabee could campaign full-throttle on what are legally "primary" funds.
>> I think I’m going for Ron Paul
I can’t deny, the thought has crossed my mind... just as a passive-aggressive protest. Never thought I would say that.
Somebody break my fingers before I can punch that chad...
But seriously, I have all but decided to vote in the Dem primary for whoever is the underdog, just to keep the Donkey Twins ripping on each other. Can’t pull the lever for any of the pubbies at this point.
In the general: may hold my nose for McCain, may skip the POTUS race, haven’t decided.
Sure
All he has to do is win 85% of the remaining delegates
I wonder how McCain likes Huckabee now?
I *hope* this is an analogy. :)
You're talking to a brick walk. I've even read some posts talking up the prospects of a Huckabee/Keyes ticket.
I don’t know. I think any deal would largely be up to the delegates. There are several key issues:
Many states (Pennsylvania) don’t actually have pledged delegates. McCain needs 507 more pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. But there are only 760 up for grabs. If Huck scored 253 delegates, and *then* McCain was found having sex with a dead boy, the party could block his nomination.
But if victory seems assured, even if it hasn’t happened yet, McCain can still raise funds as the presumptive nominee, and the RNC could still raise funds for the eventual nominee.
Huckabee’s challenge, and it is far from delusional, is to win enough support in the remaining primaries to demonstrate to party leaders that the party supporters will not tolerate a McCain candidacy.
I have no choice. In my state you can only vote for the party for which you’re registered. I would have had to change parties a few weeks ago to vote in the Dem primary. I can, however, vote for Paul. I just cannot vote for Suckabee or McInsane.
In the general I’ll vote for every office but President.
I believe McCain will be willing to shift right in order to win the POTUS job. Ultimately, he is going to need every last one of us to help him defeat the Dems. I cannot see either HClinton and a@@clown husband or Barry the Closet Muslim having control of our armed forces. Can you?
I think Mitt’s chances for the VP slot have just been bolstered. McCain gives Mitt the VP slot in return for Mitt’s delegates. Seems like a fair deal.
Delusions are funny and sad at the same time.
This should make JR quite happy.
Apologies for the double post. Bad eyes.
Mit should give his delegates to Huck .... then we would have a real race and McCain could be tested to see if he can take the pressure of such a move without going Deandong.
He is very old and has a temper. We need to know if he can still keep it together.
“Guys, you need to get real at some point and let it go. The time is now.”
You’re correct. It’s literally impossible Huckabee to comeback at this point...and even if he did, Romney could be kingmaker to unite the Party by giving his Delegates to McCain.
The Panama Factor: McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone. Was that a possession of the United States? Maybe they can take his birth out of the country to court and rule him ineligible....lmao ....I’m joking of course.
“McCain has a chance against Obama. Huckabee would lose 40 states.”
McCain will lose in a landslide of Mondalian proportions.
>> I *hope* this is an analogy. :)
No, if I remember my medical terms correctly, this would be “genealogy” I’m talking about.
“analogy” would be around to the other side. You know, hemorrhoids or something.
:)
The two guys dead last on my list of preferred candidates are running neck and neck. Whoop De Friggin’ Do!
Actually I think Huckabee should ask Rice to be his VP ahead of the convention and McCain. If anything it would be a balanced ticket.
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