Posted on 02/11/2008 9:38:57 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 234 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 304 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 237.25 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
If the Dems don’t win this time they need to start a new leftist party.
With McCain at the top of the ticket the GOP will be lucky to carry a dozen states.
The bid price is 35.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 45.0.
Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.
Nevada is at 50.0% today.
The bid price is 50.0 and the ask price is 60.0. These average to 55.0.
Thus, the tie goes to the Republican Presidential candidate.
This is vritually the same as posted as last time. Let’s wait till the playoffs are over before we worry about the Super Bowl.
I dunno..I say Maine, Michigan, Colorado, and Penn go Republican with Independent McCain on the ticket.
Even if Pubs take Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio out of the Dem column there, they just squeek by in the 280 range . . .
My FRiends, demographics after the 1964 alteration of immigration rules and the 1980’s amnesty have run strongly against us. Fight soon or wait for a multi-racial libertarian revolution . . . 50 or 100 years from now . . .
You are drinking cool aid.
What you are saying would be true of Romney.
If you are objective and not using your heart(what you want, not factual).. you would admit McCain has an excellent change to win in November. If Hillary, > 50%. If Obama.. 50/50. If a big foreign policy issue comes up later this year.. it goes to 55/45 McCain.
These haven’t changed in the past month.
Take the ones that are over 80 and put them in the R column. Take the ones under 20 and put them in the D column. The rest are up for grabs at this point.
McCain could completely come unraveled.
The Democrats could have some serious infighting in their convention.
Barack Obama could say something really stupid -- although he's already said he'd invade Pakistan and meet the leaders of North Korea and Iran, so this may not hurt him that much.
So this is highly speculative at this point...
We’re about to elect George McGovern president, with a left wing Congress. Meanwhile I am watching some conservative commentators spend all their time defending themselves, as in Hannity’s asking every guest how anyone can dare to question his purer than the driven snow role in all this.
If this is to be believed, we need to flip Ohio plus 2 of 3 of the following, CO, IA, and MO.
Granted, this is an early analysis, but we have 8-1/2 months to go. That is an eternity in politics. IOW, people need to understand, anything can happen between now and election day. Btw, wasn’t Romney leading the pack just a short while back on these Intrade.com futures?
Fight against whom? Both "sides" are against us. 20 million new Democrat voters no matter who is elected. Talking about the Republican Party's "future" is futile.
Looks about right. Ohio is probably a lost cause for the GOP no matter who’s in the final contest, so it’s a Rat in the White House next year.
McCain will be lucky to win anything but Arizona.
If the Dems run an Obama/Clinton ticket he may not even win that.
Dem voters are turning out at twice the rate of republicans in the primaries.
In the general election when the only republican choice is McCain the disparity will get worse.
Dems are collecting contributions at almost twice the rate of republicans.
Why would that get any better when McCain is nominated?
One third or more of the party can’t stand him - they sure aren’t going to give him their money.
November will be the biggest republican bloodbath since 1936.
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