Granted, this is an early analysis, but we have 8-1/2 months to go. That is an eternity in politics. IOW, people need to understand, anything can happen between now and election day. Btw, wasn’t Romney leading the pack just a short while back on these Intrade.com futures?
Yes. Giuliani was leading, then Romney, now McCain. Things do change.
By November, we will have a data set for 2008, like we did in 2004.
“Btw, wasn’t Romney leading the pack just a short while back on these Intrade.com futures?”
;-)
It predicted Hillary would beat Rudy.
Te race will be McCain v Obama.
(And if Hillary tries to use superdelegates to breat obama, all hell will break loose.)
I think despite conservative caterwauling, this is a lot like the 1976 choice between Ford and Carter - except Obama is even more liberal than Carter, with zero credentials as a real Christian and not a southerner.