and the latest prediction (will be updated, so check this post in May 2008):
If the number of sunspots not will increase rapidly in a couple of months we will know if the assumptions are correct, i.e. if we have to burn more coal to stay warm.
Posted on 02/09/2008 12:25:57 PM PST by neverdem
Global Cooling comes back in a big way
Dr. Kenneth Tapping is worried about the sun. Solar activity comes in regular cycles, but the latest one is refusing to start. Sunspots have all but vanished, and activity is suspiciously quiet. The last time this happened was 400 years ago -- and it signaled a solar event known as a "Maunder Minimum," along with the start of what we now call the "Little Ice Age."
Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, says it may be happening again. Overseeing a giant radio telescope he calls a "stethoscope for the sun," Tapping says, if the pattern doesn't change quickly, the earth is in for some very chilly weather.
During the Little Ice Age, global temperatures dropped sharply. New York Harbor froze hard enough to allow people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island, and in Britain, people reported sighting eskimos paddling canoes off the coast. Glaciers in Norway grew up to 100 meters a year, destroying farms and villages.
But will it happen again?
In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov predicted the sun would soon peak, triggering a rapid decline in world temperatures. Only last month, the view was echoed by Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. who advised the world to "stock up on fur coats." Sorokhtin, who calls man's contribution to climate change "a drop in the bucket," predicts the solar minimum to occur by the year 2040, with icy weather lasting till 2100 or beyond.
Observational data seems to support the claims -- or doesn't contradict it, at least. According to data from Britain's Met Office, the earth has cooled very slightly since 1998. The Met Office says global warming "will pick up again shortly." Others aren't so sure.
Researcher Dr. Timothy Patterson, director of the Geoscience Center at Carleton University, shares the concern. Patterson is finding "excellent correlations" between solar fluctuations, a relationship that historically, he says doesn't exist between CO2 and past climate changes. According to Patterson. we shouldn't be surprised by a solar link. "The sun [is] the ultimate source of energy on this planet," he says.
Such research dates back to 1991, when the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study showing that world temperatures over the past several centuries correlated very closely with solar cycles. A 2004 study by the Max Planck Institute found a similar correlation, but concluded the timing was only coincidental, as the solar variance seemed too small to explain temperature changes.
However, researchers at DMI continued to work, eventually discovering what they believe to be the link. The key factor isn't changes in solar output, but rather changes in the sun's magnetosphere A stronger field shields the earth more from cosmic rays, which act as "seeds" for cloud formation. The result is less cloud cover, and a warming planet. When the field weakens, clouds increases, reflecting more light back to space, and the earth cools off.
Recently, lead researcher Henrik Svensmark was able to experimentally verify the link between cosmic rays and cloud formation, in a cloud chamber experiment called "SKY" at the Danish National Space Center. CERN plans a similar experiment this year.
A few years ago, Stanford University's Hoover Institution also reported finding a correlation between the sun and climate. Hoover
Even NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies -- long the nation's most ardent champion of anthropogenic global warming -- is getting in on the act. Drew Shindell, a researcher at GISS, says there are some "interesting relationships we don't fully understand" between solar activity and climate.
well, I bought a new winter coat 2 months ago and it’s very warm. lol
>> Temps hit record lows in Alaska today.
Should temps drop and cooling begin, will there be justification for massive production of CO2 emissions?
The History Channel has a program on the little ice age Saturday evening 9:00 pm CST. I’ve watched it before, it’s a good program. I was amazed it made it through the liberal censorship of what we can watch.
>> I think you may have spelled it that way on purpose, LOL
That was a fine example of right-brain domination. Left brain not happy.
No more grants for this scientist.
Oooooooooooooooooooooo
Poor baby...
:(
(NICE WARM HUG)
Sorry, bad joke.
You know, it is pretty insane, isn't it ?
I never thoguht I'd see the day when the countries of the old soviet block race one another to see who can have the lowest flat tax rate, read milton friedman to learn how to design their economies, etc, etc.
Maybe we should go there...
I agree. So I sure picked a fine time to move BACK to Alaska!
Thanks AdmSmith and neverdem.
Alas...
Sun’s low magnetic activity may portend an ice age
Brits at their Best | January 31, 2008
Posted on 02/01/2008 2:10:28 PM EST by george76
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1963363/posts
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Springtime in Alaska...
% Rainy Days and Maunder’s Always Get Me Down %
Pinging you for information here to refute An Inconvenient Truth
nice pooch
:-)
Ice age, global warming,
Ice age, global warming,
Ice age, global warming,
Ice age, global warming,
Ice age, global warming,
Ice age, global warming,
Freezer burn
Thank you, Mr. Gore. The GW wackos realize that they may be wrong, so now they will claim that "Global Climate Change" will result in either Global Warming or Global Cooling. That way anytime the temperature is higher or lower than normal, it can be claimed to show the coming of the Apocalypse.
Even the Russians want to get in on the Global Warming/Cooling/Climate Change scare scam. There's money to be made here!
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