Posted on 02/07/2008 12:16:31 PM PST by Uncledave
Convention Chaos Theory
(Note: this is crossed-posted from TPMCafe.com).
Now that an extended Democratic nomination contest appears almost certain, there's been an explosion of renewed interest in the "brokered convention" scenario, which really just means a nomination that's in doubt after the primaries and caucuses are over. The big topics (explored especially well at OpenLeft.com) have been the battle over the 796 superdelegates, who are not bound by election results, and the possibility of a pre-convention or convention credentials fight over the Michigan and Florida delegations, who currently have no seats (or even hotel rooms) in Denver.
There's a more mundane but still significant problem with the situation: who will plan and execute the convention itself in the absence of a putative nominee?
National political conventions, despite the increasingly meagre live network television exposure they secure, are large, complex operations. Much of the initial preparation--fundraising, logistics, and site development--are done many months in advance, by local committees working with national party committees. But when it comes to the really crucial functions of a convention, such as who will speak when, what they will say, and how the whole show is presented to television viewers and to a massive international news media presence: every decision, major or minor, has in recent years been made with totalitarian authority by the putative nominee's staff.
As it happens, I've been a small cog in the machine during the last five Democratic Conventions, working in the script and speechwriting shops. To a large extent, convention operations are run by a floating circus of people, most of whom have been doing this as long as or longer than I have, who have regular day jobs and report for convention duty every four years. While the nominee's staff don't necessarily involve themselves in every minute detail, they have total veto power over everything that happens at a convention, and usually do micromanage the schedule, the speakers' list, and most of all the message. In 2004, for example, the Kerry-Edwards campaign set up a two-tiered vetting system for every speech (the second tier, where I worked, controlled what went on the teleprompter), and imposed strict message discipline on even the least important afternoon two-minute address (Al Sharpton was the one speaker who defied both the schedule and the message rules, with electrifying effect). All media communications were coordinated by the nominee's staff as well. And while much of this "controlling" activity happened at the convention itself, or in the week before it, the systems obviously had to be set up much earlier.
So: who's going to make all these decisions, and set up these systems, if the nominee isn't known until right before the convention, or until the convention itself? In theory, the DNC would step in, but keep in mind that every single DNC member is also a super-delegate and thus an actual or potential candidate partisan. And it's not as though there's any sort of generic schedule or message that can be planned that might not compromise one candidate or another, or the party as a whole
It gets worse: the last really serious platform fight at a Democratic Convention was in 1968. Indeed, the platform committee presentation is typically made to an empty convention hall in the middle of the day, and begins with a motion to dispense reading of the document, perhaps fluffed up by a short thematic speech. If the nomination contest is still in any doubt, platform fights might very well serve as maneuvers by one or both of the candidates to pry lose delegates, none of whom, BTW, will be bound by convention rules to stay with their pledged candidate (most of the non-superdelegates will have been chosen carefully by campaigns, and some may be bound by state laws and party rules). Who even remembers how to manage a platform fight? Who will plan the timing and structure? Nobody knows.
Moreover, in an open convention, every single speaker could represent a time bomb. In the recent past, speakers methodically echoed the convention message set by the putative nominee, and concluded every speech with a ritualistic invocation of the names on the ticket. What if many or most of the speeches tout one candidate over another? Will there be fights over the candidate preference of every politician seeking to get on the schedule? Will delegates and guests get into cheering contests after every speech? Nobody knows that, either.
Maybe, perhaps even probably, none of this chaos will ensue; with only two viable candidates for president, the odds of an open or "brokered" convention remain quite low, and really depend on so close a race that superdelegates or disputed delegations hold the balance of power. And perhaps the excitement associated with a truly deliberative convention outweighs all the concerns I've mentioned.
But it is time for Democrats to start thinking about these decisions, lest the convention devolve from excitement to a big, confusing, and divisive waste of precious time.
Posted by Ed Kilgore on February 6, 2008 04:35 PM
Liberals in general are a big, confusing, and divisive waste of precious time.
Actually it should be “String” theory.........H! will be pulling the strings........
I predict actual violence within the building as the NEA teachers start a race war.
I predict five fat brownshirts in a German tuba band...
(with each other).
Let’s stock up on popcorn and watch. Yep who knows what will happen if the super delegates hold the balance of power. I think it’s funny that the Democrats pride themselves on counting every vote and all that, and they allocate 20% of their convention vote to people who are specifically not committed to anyone, who are not chosen in primaries or caucuses.
You're just saying that to try to cheer me up after another of my candidates has left. Well it worked.
Considering how quickly Republicans bailed out after I decided to support them, I'm thinking of supporting McCain just to be rid of him by the end of the month.
Is there any way to gouge out my mind's eye to make that vision go away?
The last primary is on June 3. The convention isn’t until the end of August. That’s plenty of time to work out a back-room deal well before the opening gavel.
Remember that most of these superdelegates in both parties are, not to use too derogatory a term, party hacks — most will put the good of their party over the good of their favorite candidate. If the superdelegates are the swing bloc, I have little doubt they’ll strike a deal out of public view and before the convention. All of them remember 1968, and all know a chaotic convention would bring disaster.
Not to mention that a lot of the “earned” delegates will be chosen at the state conventions, most of which won’t happen for a number of months. Individual voters might not practice a high level of sophisticated strategic voting, but I promise you that state convention delegates and the superdelegates will. There will be a lot of horse-trading this summer. It does no good to gain points with a candidate who loses and has no favors to hand out.
Funny that the Reps have a fairly clear front-runner, and the Dems are contemplating a brokered convention. Four days ago, it looked more likely to swing the other way.
According to Jonathan Alter, Clintonista Alexis Herman will play a big role in deciding whether to seat Michigan and Florida:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/108697/page/2
Once delegates arrive in the Mile High City, the first order of business will be to resolve the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations. The Democratic National Committee stripped those states of their delegates because they broke party rules by scheduling their primaries out of turn. Although all of the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in either place, Hillary won in both, and she obviously wants those delegations counted; Obama does not. Under pressure from the Obama camp, the DNC may require Florida and Michigan to schedule caucuses, probably in early June, to select their delegates. If they refuse, the Florida-Michigan question will be referred to the DNC’s credentials committee, which is headed by Alexis Herman, a former secretary of labor and senior aide in the Clinton White House. She would presumably hold highly publicized hearings over the summer and issue a report.
The credentials committee’s report would be debated on the floor of the convention on the first night. It would likely be the test vote to see the relative strength of the two campaigns. (Similar test votes on obscure party rules were held at the 1972, 1980 and 1984 Democratic conventions, when George McGovern, Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale, respectively, entered the convention just shy of the votes needed to nominate.) The winner of that vote on Monday, Aug. 25, would likely be nominated on Aug. 27.
...
I predict an increase in all sorts of crime in the Denver Metropolitan area. Guard your home and property tightly while these freaks are in town. They will steal everything and temporarily turn Denver into a Philadelphia.
“Chaos theory attempts to explain the fact that complex and unpredictable results can and will occur in systems that are sensitive to their initial conditions. A common example of this is known as the Butterfly Effect. It states that, in theory, the flutter of a butterfly’s wings in China could, in fact, actually effect weather patterns in New York City, thousands of miles away. In other words, it is possible that a very small occurance can produce unpredictable and sometimes drastic results by triggering a series of increasingly significant events.”
“The butterfly effect is a phrase that encapsulates the more technical notion of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory.
The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly’s wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that ultimately cause a tornado to appear (or prevent a tornado from appearing). The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different.”
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Now consider this:
Conservatives, By compromising there principles in past elections And considering only that a candidate was “GOP”...Have allowed the situation we are in today to come to be. That was a prime example of Chaos Theory. And this time around we may be to far gone- to tilt back upright. But the only thing we can do is to start standing up to all of this, and not vote for bad candidates. All we can hope for is that by the grace of God that it is not too late.
OK so the dems get in. One can hope that they will get all the blame for the mess they make. One can hope that we have enough freedom left to be able to pick up the pieces when they get done. One thing is for sure. We have lost plenty of freedom in the last 7 years. We are on the path that destroys this country already. One can hope that after 4 years of Hillary or Obama rule that the people will be crying out for true conservative leadership, and that Conservative will no longer be associated with Neocon or Rhino. One can hope anyways.
FOTFL Thanx. I needed something to laugh about!
The worst thing that can happen is the Super Delegates will override the popular vote. How will Democrats respond if Obama wins the popular vote and has the most nonSuper Delegates, but then the Clinton machine delivers the Super Delegates and the nomination???? I think the crap will hit the fan, and that would be a good thing.
I want a Chicago redux! Please give me a Chicago redux!
At a democrat convention where deals and kickbacks rule, the smart money should be on Hillary.
She will also suffer the most damage. Her only hope is to go into the convention with a commanding lead. The VP pick will be key. She may go with a Bentsen-type of pick to offset her Dukakisness. .
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