Posted on 02/06/2008 7:38:29 AM PST by Teacher317
As we all know, there are states that were in play in 2000 and 2004... and those that were not. If McCain is the nominee, he'll certainly take the GOP strongholds, barring massive conservative exodus (and judging by the returns so far, there just aren't that many of us in reality).
Basically, UT, WY, ID, NE, OK, ND, AK, KS, AL, TX, SD, MT, IN, KY, MS, SC, GA, and NC all had less than 43% go to the DEM candidate in both 2000 and 2004. Assume those states are safe for McCain.
Likewise, unless Hillary loses the nomination and Obama runs in the general election on promises of instituting Sharia Law (and maybe even then), the following states are not going for McCain: DC, MA, RI, VT, NY, MD, IL, CT, CA, HI, DE, NJ.
That leaves, in order of Dem preference in 2004 (those in caps had their primary already):
ME, wa, or MI, MN, pa, NH, wi, IA, nm, oh, NV, FL, CO, MO, va, AR, AZ, WV, TN, and la.
Of those 21 states where GOP preference is weaker, 13 have had their primaries... and McCain won the primary vote in only four of those states... his home state of AZ (48%), tiny NH (37%), FL (36%) and MO (33%). He failed to get even half of the GOP vote in his home state, and failed to get 40% in the other "in-play" states that he won.
Is there ANY reason to think that he would pull any votes from the states that are in play?
Even giving him a boost of 3% for those that might be uncomfortable voting for a female or minority DEM, he's still in serious trouble for taking the Electoral College, which is the real competition in November, as we've all learned. Even aside from his GOP back-stabbing, his advanced age and health concerns, his infamous foul temper... he's still not a good candidate.
Nothing but terrible choices in this race. McQueeg just happens to be the worst possible choice.
In answer to the question - NO!!
Mccain cannot win unless we have a major domestic terrorist attack in the next 9 months. I believe we will avoid any attacks with W. still in the oval office, which means we will be voting on the issue of the economy, which McCain says he doesn’t understand and Hillary promising to give away the store.
Hillary will win bigger than W. won either election.
Does it matter?
CAPITOL HILL STAFFERS RATE THEIR BOSSES
McCain got no glory from those who work with him.
“Every election year we survey top aides on both sides of the aisle—administrative assistants, press secretaries, legislative directors, and chiefs of committee staffs—to get their up-close and personal, and anonymous, views. While there may be lots of partisan backbiting among congress members, their staffers seem far more capable of putting politics aside and making honest judgments. It wasn’t unusual for aides in both parties to name one of their own as “spineless” or give the “workhorse” nod to someone across the aisle. “
Worst Follower 2. John McCain (R-Ariz.)
Show Horse 2. John McCain (R-Ariz.)
Hottest Temper 2. John McCain (R-Ariz.) known to snap at staff when the cameras are off
THE McCAIN WAY - ATTACK REPUBLICANS
Defending His Amnesty Bill, “Presidential hopeful John McCain - who has been dogged for years by questions about his volcanic temper - erupted in an angry, profanity-laced tirade at a fellow Republican senator, sources told The Post yesterday. In a heated dispute over immigration-law overhaul, McCain screamed, ‘F— you!’ at Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who had been raising concerns about the legislation. ‘This is chickens—stuff,’ McCain snapped at Cornyn, according to several people in the room off the Senate floor Thursday. ‘You’ve always been against this bill, and you’re just trying to derail it.’” (Charles Hurt, “Raising McCain,” New York Post, 5/19/07)
In 2000, Sen. McCain Ran An Attack Ad Comparing Then-Gov. George W. Bush To Bill Clinton. SEN. MCCAIN: “I guess it was bound to happen. Governor Bush’s campaign is getting desperate, with a negative ad about me. The fact is, I’ll use the surplus money to fix Social Security, cut your taxes and pay down the debt. Governor Bush uses all of the surplus for tax cuts, with not one new penny for Social Security or the debt. His ad twists the truth like Clinton. We’re all pretty tired of that. As president, I’ll be conservative and always tell you the truth. No matter what.” (McCain 2000, Campaign Ad, 2/9/00; www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHoXkCprdL4)
Sen. McCain Repeatedly Called Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) nams. “Why can’t McCain win the votes of his own colleagues? To explain, a Republican senator tells this story: at a GOP meeting last fall, McCain erupted out of the blue at the respected Budget Committee chairman, Pete Domenici, saying, ‘Only an a–hole would put together a budget like this.’ Offended, Domenici stood up and gave a dignified, restrained speech about how in all his years in the Senate, through many heated debates, no one had ever called him that. Another senator might have taken the moment to check his temper. But McCain went on: ‘I wouldn’t call you an a–hole unless you really were an a–hole.’ The Republican senator witnessing the scene had considered supporting McCain for president, but changed his mind. ‘I decided,’ the senator told Newsweek, ‘I didn’t want this guy anywhere near a trigger.’” (Evan Thomas, et al., “Senator Hothead,” Newsweek, 2/21/00)
Sen. McCain Had A Heated Exchange With Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) And Called Him A “F*cking Jerk.” “Senators are not used to having their intelligence or integrity challenged by another senator. ‘Are you calling me stupid?’ Sen. Chuck Grassley once inquired during a debate with McCain over the fate of the Vietnam MIAs, according to a source who was present. ‘No,’ replied McCain, ‘I’m calling you a f—ing jerk!” (Evan Thomas, et al., “Senator Hothead,” Newsweek, 2/21/00)
In 1995, Sen. McCain Had A “Scuffle” With 92-Year-Old Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-SC) On The Senate Floor. “In January 1995, McCain was midway through an opening statement at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing when chairman Strom Thurmond asked, ‘Is the senator about through?’ McCain glared at Thurmond, thanked him for his ‘courtesy’ (translation: buzz off), and continued on. McCain later confronted Thurmond on the Senate floor. A scuffle ensued, and the two didn’t part friends.” (Harry Jaffe, “Senator Hothead,” The Washingtonian, 2/97)
Sen. McCain Attacked Christian Leaders And Republicans In A Blistering Speech During The 2000 Campaign. MCCAIN: “Unfortunately, Governor Bush is a Pat Robertson Republican who will lose to Al Gore. … The political tactics of division and slander are not our values… They are corrupting influences on religion and politics, and those who practice them in the name of religion or in the name of the Republican Party or in the name of America shame our faith, our party and our country. Neither party should be defined by pandering to the outer reaches of American politics and the agents of intolerance, whether they be Louis Farrakhan or Al Sharpton on the left, or Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell on the right.” (Sen. John McCain, Remarks, Virginia Beach, VA, 2/28/00)
Celebrating His First Senate Election In 1986, Sen. McCain Screamed At And Harassed A Young Volunteer. “It was election night 1986, John McCain had just been elected to the U.S. Senate for the first time. Even so, he was not in a good mood. McCain was yelling at the top of his lungs and poking the chest of a young volunteer who had set up a lectern that was too tall for the 5-foot-9 politician to be seen to advantage, according to a witness to the outburst. ‘Here this poor guy is thinking he has done a good job, and he gets a new butt ripped because McCain didn’t look good on television,’ Jon Hinz told a reporter Thursday. At the time, Hinz was executive director of the Arizona Republican Party. … ‘There were an awful lot of people in the room,’ Hinz recalled. ‘You’d have to stick cotton in your ears not to hear it. He (McCain) was screaming at him, and he was red in the face.’” (Kris Mayes and Charles Kelly, “Stories Surface On Senator’s Demeanor,” The Arizona Republic, 11/5/99)
Sen. McCain “Publicly Abused” Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL). “[McCain] noted his propensity for passion but insisted that he doesn’t ‘insult anybody or fly off the handle or anything like that.’ This is, quite simply, hogwash. McCain often insults people and flies off the handle…. There have been the many times McCain has called reporters ‘liars’ and ‘idiots’ when they have had the audacity to ask him unpleasant, but pertinent, questions. ” (Editorial, “There’s Something About McCain,” The Austin American-Statesman, 1/24/07)
Is it any wonder McCain has few endorsements from his Congressional piers? http://thehill.com/endorsements-2008.html
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1964284/posts?page=28#28
Looks like our choices in this election is a matter of degree: liberal, more liberal, most liberal.
I’ve already resigned myself to the probability of another Clinton presidency. Unless someone makes a serious mistake or national circumstances change radically Hillary will beat McCain.
Rovian in your questiona and analysis.
It’s about the electoral college. Dubya’s people knew that in ‘00 and that’s how they won.
Too bad that Zuni rocket was not armed....
Al Qaeda seen planning attack on U.S.
By Sara A. Carter
February 6, 2008
http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080206/NATION/604494540/0/SPORTS
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
No he can’t win and one reason many will not support him especially those who follow his vengeful ways.
“Mccain cannot win unless we have a major domestic terrorist attack in the next 9 months. I believe we will avoid any attacks with W. still in the oval office, which means we will be voting on the issue of the economy, which McCain says he doesn’t understand and Hillary promising to give away the store.”
I agree with your analysis. For the next 9 months, the msm will be talking about nothing but the economy. No surge talk (not that they’re doing that now)
“It’s the ecomnomy stupid” will be drilled in.
LOL - Here’s my in-depth analysis.
NO - HE CAN’T WIN
The last time we ran an uninspiring war hero, simply because it was "his turn", the election map looked like this:
2000 and 2004 looked like this (with only IA and NM switching): 
It looks like we can easily lose the Mississippi River states (MO, AR, LA, TN, KY) plus NV, NH, and even WV (who gave McCain just 1% in their primary!!!) with McCain in 2008.
> Hillary will win bigger than W. won either election. <
Probably correct. And as much as it pains me to say so, I have to think Hillary would be “less bad” than Obama.
(Obama seems to be a sincere, committed socialist. Hillary strikes me as much more the pragmatist, who doesn’t necessarily believe the socialist claptrap she spouts on the campaign trail.)
oh, yeah, and two states that were utterly insignificant in 2000 and 2004... Ohio and Florida
ping
Less bad in the political choices made... possibly... but far worse in the consequences of the Clinton corruption machine. How many more secrets can the Chinese buy? How many more US resources can Indonesia put off-limits to exploration with “donations”?
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