If Romney backs out or loses, ... I guess I'll vote for a Democrat.
Posted on 02/05/2008 11:18:12 PM PST by Fred
It's not the place of a guy like me to say whether a candidate should stay in or depart the race.
But it's hard to see a scenario in which the next nominee of the Republican party is not John McCain. Maybe McCain will face a health scare, or maybe something goes terribly wrong at CPAC, or maybe some Dean-scream-like moment makes him completely unelectable.
But I think Rove's ballpark estimates are right, and McCain will have something like a 300 delegate lead over Romney when today's - no, it's now yesterday's - results shake out. Take a look at the remaining states after today.
In a perfect world for Romney, he would roar into some winner-take-all states and start gobbling up vast swaths of delegates. But there's only a few winner-take-all states left: Virginia (63 delegates), the District of Columbia, (19 delegates) and Vermont (17 delegates). Could Romney take those? Probably, but I figure McCain will be in strong shape in the Navy-heavy state of Virginia.
(The chart put together by Right For America gives Romney 37 delegates in Louisiana, and I'm not sure that's possible with the results in the state's caucus. Of course, that state has Byzantine rules that are less clear than Bayou mud.)
Washington state or Kansas? Yeah, I could see Romney winning those states, 40 delegates here, 39 delegates there. But they're proportional states; tough to see him sweeping by such an enormous margin that he gets enough delegates to really make up a lot of ground.
Wisconsin is in between in there, with 40 delegates. I'll have a more detailed look at all of these states after a lengthy night's sleep, but you look, state after state, and have a tough time saying, "oh, yeah, that state's definatley going Romney, and he'll win big."
On March 4, Texas (140 delegates) and Ohio (88 delegates) are two of the bigger pieces left on the board. If Huckabee is still in the race then (and he certainly doesn't seem inclined to leave the race, and must be gleeful tonight), if you're Romney, you have to worry about him taking a big bite out of Texas' delegates. Also note Texas is an open primary, so one would think McCain would be looking at a decent level of support from independents.
Bill Kristol predicted on Fox News a moment ago that Romney would announce his departure from the race at CPAC. I am skeptical of that prediction.
02/06 12:59 AM
There were a few states you didn’t mention that I think Romney should win—Oregon, Idaho, and South Dakota, for instance. But your analysis is still spot-on, regardless.
I see Huckabee doing well in southwest Virginia and McCain with NOVA soccer moms and suburbanites. Huckabee will do very, very well in Texas, given the large Southern Baptist population there.
Evangelicals won’t vote for Romney.
Evangelicals will vote for Huckabee.
Hawks will vote for McCain.
We have split the party into factions and Hillary will be President for 8 years.
Thanks evangelicals. Thanks for your bigotry against Romney because he is a Moromon. Thanks for supporting an unelectable candidate (Huckabee) and a 72 year old liberal with a bad temper.
The conservative movement was killed by the evangelicals. Thanks a lot!
Evangelicals were estimated in 2004 to be about 37% of the party’s voters. Your statement that evangelicals won’t vote for Romney was proven false last night, as I believe it was listed that Mitt got 31% and Huckabee got 34%. Find another reason that Mitt did not do well tonight. And, lose the B-word. It’s getting old.
Yup, Romeny would have won a few more states if only those other stubborn candidates had dropped out.
If Romney backs out or loses, ... I guess I'll vote for a Democrat.
Ironic that this is happening. TWA 2008 is being hijacked and the evangelicals are sitting in their seats frightened to death with Mormanophobia.
Expect Mitt Romney to bow out at CPAC.
McCain will need all the money he can get to fight the Democrat candidate. Any money he spends fighting other Republicans is less for the real battle. And, if he fails to "reach across the aisle" to the conservative base at CPAC, it will be the big mistake of his campaign that will devastate his chances to win in November.
Nonsense, all polls show evangelical votes evenly split between all three candidates.
Get it around your head that the electorate was never going to get behind a pandering phlip-phlopper like Romney. Bush won an entire general election by standing behind a podium for 6 months calling Kerry a flip-flop over and over again, and Kerry only ever flipped on a single issue. Romney has been unelectable from day one and should have been run out on a rail months ago, making room for a real candidate.
I hope you and I can agree that the shibboleth you just posted is as tiresome as it is vacuous. There isn't a scintilla of conservative in Myth Romney and any Conservative ought to know that.
I never hear any complaining or accusations when states with large Mormon populations vote for Romney at a 98% rate. Where are the charges of bigotry then? You know, it could just be that they couldn't trust a fox that just stopped chasing chickens 2 years ago, in the chicken coop. A voter will nearly always vote for a candidate or will not for some reason. Whatever the reason they didn't vote for Myth, is their business and their reasoning. The 'bigotry mantra' has become old, stale and is reminiscent of some liberals poster board scratchings.
I am not sure how you could possibly know a voters reasoning for not voting for a candidate. Perhaps a psychoanalysis of Romney would be more productive than that of the electorate? I would suggest to Mr. Romney that there are just some things money can't buy. It was a good run, prove you are a conservative by remaining so and better luck next time.
LOL. I said the same thing! We missed our calling we should have been political analysts. :)
hillary will be lucky to be in office for 4 years. Tough times and disaters policies do not result in 8 year presidencies. She will be the best friend republicans have had since her husband distroyed the democratic party in the great election of 94.
Hillary will make Jimmy Carter look like a "smooth operator". Her political moves will be the equivalent of a rabid jackass in a china store.
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