Posted on 02/04/2008 10:45:28 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 234 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 304 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 236.26 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
The bid price is 35.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 45.0.
Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.
It’s a little early to call Missouri and Colorado for the dems.
A lot also depends on who the actual nominees are.
I’m just shocked that there’s a 3.7% chance the Republican wins Washington DC. I thought that would be zero. A Romney candidacy gets Michigan and maybe Massachusetts?
Methinks that if Hillary is the Dem nominee, you'll have a lot of broken-glass Republicans appear out of nowhere to vote against her.
Well, no, it couldn't be zero...she could be caught red-handed on film buying cocaine and that would...
Oh, nevermind!
You should be just as shocked that Utah only ranks 92.3% chance of winning Republican. I can guarantee 100% that Utah will go Republican.
Anyone want to take my bet.
BTW D.C. got its vote quid pro quo for the additional Utah vote. The two extremes cancel each other out.
Thanks for posting this. A 70 point differential is hard to make up when the “base” has become the BINO — Base In Name Only.
Of course, a lot will happen between now and November, but none of us think that the dark blue states are going to turn dark red in that time.
I’ve looked at this carefully and there are four states that could be in play. They would be Iowa, Missouri, Colorado and Wisconsin. That comes to 37 votes which would give 271 votes, enough to put the Republicans over the top. Based on my analysis, the other states are out of play and in the Democratic column.
Yep, Utah will go Republican. We can all identify certain states that will go one party or the other.
Dems. have virtually no chance in states such as Idaho, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and a few others. Reps. have virtually no chance in D.C., Maryland, California, Delaware, New York, all of New England, etc. It will come down to the same battleground states as there were in 2000 and 2004.
Michigan could be the gops big pick up
Are you sure you want to go that far out on a limb?
{sarc}
You’d think if McCain was considered our nominee, and he so easily beats the democrats, that you’d see some movement in this chart, but it’s saying the same thing it’s said for months.
We need to find away to compete in the upper midwest. I like the idea of a veep from minnesota, perhaps Tim Pawlenty?
Any thoughts?
Pawlenty barely squeeked back into office in 2006. I doubt he’d add a lot to the ticket. Better off finding someone who might swing Iowa and Missouri.
Our best chance to win is holding Colorado and Missouri and taking Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa.
That would give us 281 and leave the dems sputtering with 257.
I’d be concerned if he won Minnesota in a landslide?
He is well liked a good orator and has a youthful appearance.
Plus he doesn’t have a contentious voting record that is easy to tear apart.
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