[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 234 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 304 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 236.26 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[Momaw Nadon]

Colorado is at 50.0% today.

The bid price is 35.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 45.0.

Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.

[Azzurri]

I’m just shocked that there’s a 3.7% chance the Republican wins Washington DC. I thought that would be zero. A Romney candidacy gets Michigan and maybe Massachusetts?

[RichardW]

I’ve looked at this carefully and there are four states that could be in play. They would be Iowa, Missouri, Colorado and Wisconsin. That comes to 37 votes which would give 271 votes, enough to put the Republicans over the top. Based on my analysis, the other states are out of play and in the Democratic column.

[CharlesWayneCT]

You’d think if McCain was considered our nominee, and he so easily beats the democrats, that you’d see some movement in this chart, but it’s saying the same thing it’s said for months.

[proudpapa]

We need to find away to compete in the upper midwest. I like the idea of a veep from minnesota, perhaps Tim Pawlenty?

Any thoughts?

[proudpapa]

Our best chance to win is holding Colorado and Missouri and taking Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa.

That would give us 281 and leave the dems sputtering with 257.

[Drago]

I think this map drifts toward blue if McCain is the GOP nominee.

[OPS4]

Republican Presidential Nomination
Republican Delegate Count

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain Romney Huckabee Paul Spread
RCP Average 01/30 - 02/03 - 42.8 24.5 17.9 6.0 McCain +18.3
CNN 02/01 - 02/03 412 RV 44 29 18 6 McCain +15.0
Cook/RT Strategies 01/31 - 02/02 308 RV 39 24 18 6 McCain +15.0
Pew Research 01/30 - 02/02 513 RV 42 22 20 5 McCain +20.0
USA Today/Gallup 01/30 - 02/02 867 LV 42 24 18 5 McCain +18.0
CBS News 01/30 - 02/02 325 LV 46 23 12 9 McCain +23.0
ABC/Wash Post 01/30 - 02/01 LV 48 24 16 7 McCain +24.0
FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 297 RV 48 20 19 5 McCain +28.0
Rasmussen (Mon) 4 Day Tracking 800 LV 33 30 22 5 McCain +3.0

Intrade Political ‘Securities’ Percentage US$ Traded

John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 87.2% $2.3M
Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 9.1% $1.6M
Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 1.0% $1.6M
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 1.0% $1.1M

[wolfcreek]

Fantasy politics

[devere]

Colorado and Missouri are winnable.
Then The GOP needs to add either Ohio, or Michigan, or Minnesota+Iowa to make an electoral vote majority.
Michigan should be in play if native son Mitt Romney heads the ticket.