The Death of Conservatism? - 43 Mistakes and the GOP's Dobson's Choice

There have been more than a few recent articles and editorials attempting to affix blame for the demise of the Republican Party. Peggy Noonan blames President Bush. Rush Limbaugh believes a McCain nomination will kill the party. However, even in a worse case scenario, the Republican Party will probably stagger along for several years much like the last decade of the Whigs. Conservative Republicans should probably be more concerned about the impending demise of the conservative movement within the party. Some individuals can be blamed more than others, but this folly has many fathers. The latest blow to conservatives has come from within – thanks to Dr. James Dobson and other egotistical evangelicals. Political doomsayers may be correct and it is likely too late to save the conservative movement in 2008. Conservatives can correct their path to destruction for 2010 and beyond, but only if they look back at recent history, recognize the actions and actors that have brought the party and movement to this point, and to learn from a long series of missteps and mistakes.

Ronald Reagan built a winning coalition of conservatives, independents and establishment moderate Republicans in 1980. A coalition of social, economic and security conservatives had come together to form a plurality within the GOP and wrest leadership of the party from the establishment, moderate GOP. The Iran-Contra scandal (Mistake #1) weakened the coalition and the moderate wing of the party regained control of the GOP (Mistake #2), which led to the election of President George H.W. Bush (Mistake #3).

While the elder Bush had adopted – albeit reluctantly – many conservative ideals, he and the moderate GOP leaders advocated a “kinder, gentler” approach (Mistake #4). Conservatives might have been content to take a back seat to moderate GOP leadership, but they read Bush’s lips and their support and enthusiasm for the Republican Party evaporated after the Bush tax increase (Mistake #5). In 1992 some conservatives were taken in by Ross Perot and his anti-establishment, anti-Washington message (Mistake #6). Others just stayed home (Mistake #7) and helped Democrats elect the Dope from Hope, Bill Clinton, with just 43% of the popular vote (Mistake #8).

The only positive to come out of 1992 was that it helped create an opening for an obscure, but brilliant Congressman from Georgia to lead conservatives to regain control of the Republican Party. Newt Gingrich reformed the three-legged conservative coalition and took an upstart innovative approach of leading the GOP from the House with a 1994 national congressional campaign platform – the Contract with America.

It is important to note that prior to the ’94 elections, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole and other establishment, moderate GOP leaders scoffed at and were dismissive of Gingrich and the Contract. Dole and Senate moderates rode the Contract’s election coattails, but made it plain that the GOP Senate did NOT sign on to the program, was not obligated to it, reluctantly followed Gingrich's lead, and worked to water down each and every one of the Contract's provisions (Mistake #9).

By January 1996, Dole was the presumptive Republican presidential nominee (Mistake #10). Dole sought to convince Speaker Gingrich to fold up the federal government shutdown stalemate with President Clinton and allow Dole to lead the GOP via his presidential campaign.

Dole gave Gingrich the choice of single-handedly continuing the shutdown and fight with Clinton and the media with Candidate Dole seeking a different path from the House GOP or deferring to Dole's presidential campaign and resuming the conservative battle together with Gingrich’s friend Trent Lott to keep President Dole honest after the ’96 elections. Gingrich made the wrong choice (Mistake #11). Gingrich probably should have run for President himself in 1996 (Mistake #12).

We all remember what happened. By caving in and compromising on the shutdown, the conservative House leadership lost some of their ability to control their more moderate members (Mistake #13). Bob Dole lost (Mistake #14). Trent Lott built his own voice separate from the House (Mistake #15). And with no help from Lott & the GOP Senate and a Clinton veto looming on all conservative issues, Gingrich, Armey & DeLay focused too much of their efforts on the growing Clinton scandals (Mistake #16).

Gingrich was able to maintain order within the House even during the Clinton impeachment. But after the Senate RINOs failed to do their duty and convict Clinton (Mistake #17), the House moderates began feeling their oats (Mistake #18).

Then, the impact of the missing FBI files took effect. Allegations of marital affairs Gingrich and Hyde took their toll (Mistake #19). Seeing his conservative House coalition slowly diminish and Lott's desire to set on a different path, Gingrich stepped down as Speaker (Mistake #20). Then his presumed successor, Bob Livingston from Louisiana, was also taken out by a marital affair (Mistake #21).

House Moderates became emboldened and championed the lackluster Dennis Hastert as Speaker to muzzle Armey & DeLay and appear less confrontational (Mistake #22). This effort also helped to clear the agenda of party leadership for the 2000 GOP presidential candidates (Mistake #23). And in 2000, conservatives settled for the "compassionate conservatism" of George W. Bush (Mistake #24). Many conservatives stayed home, nearly costing Bush the presidency and actually losing GOP control of the Senate in 2000 (Mistake #25).

To be fair, conservatives should thank God everyday for W's leadership in dealing with 9-11. But Bush also squandered the opportunity to push the party and country to the right following that horrible event (Mistake #26). The GOP regained control of the Senate in 2002, but based solely on the country’s fears of Democrats’ inability to deal with national security concerns and not on conservative social and economic principles. Meanwhile, the House drifted further to the center (Mistake #27).

Conservative fears of repeating Florida 2000 helped Bush win reelection in 2004, despite the party's overall drift to the center. By now, any conservative elements in the House and Senate were in complete retreat. The moderates ruled the roost in both houses. RINO defections on the Iraq war (Mistake #28), wasteful earmarks (Mistake #29) and ethics scandals (Mistake #29) were now front and center for the GOP. The only conservative victories of 2005-06 were the confirmations of Roberts and Alito to the Supreme Court. And it took a battle to defeat Bush on his nomination of Harriet Miers to do it.

By Fall 2006 conservatives had become utterly disheartened. Attempts to make the Bush tax cuts permanent stalled (Mistake #30), the continued treachery of Arlen Spector, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and the Gang of 14 (Mistake #31), increased dissatisfaction with George Bush and the Miers nomination debacle all caused conservatives to stay home in November 2006 (Mistake #32). And the GOP lost both the House and Senate.

Occasionally, the conservative movement can still rise up. The reaction to the Amnesty bill was encouraging. But other than that, conservatives have again been wandering in the wilderness. GOP moderates and RINO's have been resistant to allowing a conservative to assume leadership in Congress. And any potential conservative congressional leader has held back (Mistake #33), in part due to the extremely early start of the 2008 presidential race (Mistake #34).

And what did conservatives get for 2008 GOP candidates? Were there any Reagan conservatives who possessed all three legs of the coalition stool - strong national defense, social conservatism, economic conservatism?

Instead, we got Rudy Giuliani. An autocrat who has little affection for social conservatives, but pledged to nominate strict construction judges. Whoopee!

Instead, we got John McCain. An angry RINO maverick who enjoys flouting social and economic conservatives AND even the GOP establishment to gain favor and positive reviews from the liberal media.

Instead, we got Mitt Romney, an uber-wealthy GOP establishment moderate. At least Romney panders to social and economic conservatives with recently discovered flip-flopped positions on issues of importance to those two factions.

Instead, we got Mike Huckabee – the Dope from Hope, part II. While he is just as slick and manipulative as Bill Clinton, Huckabee is nowhere near as smart.

Instead, we got Ron Paul, a true blue, libertarian nutbag. Paul has a few economic bona fides that have pulled away a few non-nut job libertarians. But I'm sorry, Dr. Paul is a kook.

Instead, we got the Obscure Four - Tom Tancredo, Alan Keyes, Tommy Thompson & Duncan Hunter. Tancredo & Keyes are single issue candidates. Tommy & Dunc are well-rounded politicians (especially Hunter), but they lacked the ability to have broad nationwide appeal.

Seeing this morass of blech, Fred Thompson entered the fray expecting to be the savior of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. Fred should have been that candidate.

Unfortunately, Dr. James Dobson and a few evangelical leaders decided to cut off their nose to spite their face (Mistake #35). You see, Fred's not a Bible thumper. Neither was Ronald Reagan. And like Reagan, Fred is a bona fide, all-around, federalist conservative. That wasn’t good enough for Dobson. And when Fred refused to kiss Dobson's ring of evangelical purity, Dobson went shopping for a candidate he thought he could control.

Flim Flam Huckabee seized on that opportunity. Huckabee played Dobson into thinking that Dobson could be a GOP kingmaker (Mistake #36). A handful of evangelical leaders blindly pushed Huckabee as a viable conservative (Mistake #37). The media, who knows a GOP loser when they see one, helped fan the flames of Huckabee's support. For a time, the scheme worked. Huckabee won Iowa (Mistake #38), but eventually the truth of Huckabee's Christian Socialism became evident to most conservatives.

But the damage had been done. Social conservatives were now spilt. Some had been taken in by Huckabee's class warfare (Mistake #39). Some had been taken in by the media's false depiction of Fred as a lazy campaigner (Mistake #40) and settled for Romney, Rudy or, worse, McCain (Mistake #41).

Added into this deceptive mix was the ability of independents and Democrats to participate in and distort the Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina Republican primaries (Mistake #42). Media darling McCain was back! McCain – the new Comeback Kid – was ready to lead....the GOP down to defeat. Meanwhile, Fred's race and the ability for the GOP to unify behind a Reaganesque conservative died (Mistake #43).

At best, the GOP could still end up with a George W. Bush-lite nominee like Mitt Romney. He will at least pretend to care about conservative ideals from his Country Club wing of the party.

At worst, the GOP could end up with John McCain. McCain, the perennial thorn in the GOP's side who was once touted as a possible VP running mate for John Kerry!

Who knows? It’s still remotely possible that none of the moderates and RINO’s still in the presidential race will win a majority of the primary delegates. Maybe a conservative nominee could still rise up in a brokered GOP convention. Maybe a conservative national congressional campaign like the Contract with America could still arise in time for the 2008 elections. But really, that’s a fantasy.

The reality is that conservatives will have to wait until 2010 or 2012 to reassert itself as the true and legitimate leaders of the Republican Party. The reality is that conservatives have allowed numerous people to make numerous mistakes which have led the movement to this precarious point. The reality is that conservatives and the GOP are now left with this Dobson's Choice of Romney or McCain. Pass the nose clips and prepare for the worst.

What you don’t understand, is that when Fred said he was baptized into the church of Christ that is just exactly what that means. He believed in Jesus and was baptized.

Dobson didn’t understand that either. Not every church has the same way of expressing that they believe.

It is a false accusation to say Fred did not say he believed in Jesus, because he did say he believed in Jesus in the manner of his personal faith.

The church of Christ that Fred grew up in does not do “testimony” statements like some churches do and there are theological reasons for it.

I have listened to Dobson. I have received his magazine for many years. I own many of his books.

What he did was OUTRAGEOUS. Even my father, the most Godly man I know, who HATES to criticize others was horrified by Dobson’s actions, and he actually wrote him a letter about it.

Dobson has no more “wisdom” that I am interested in hearing.

In the first place, being non-practicing (non-church-going) and divorced are two big, big hurdles.

That wasn't a problem with Reagan. Dobson spoke glowingly of Gingrich, hoping he'd enter the race. In other words, this is only a problem when the evangelicals are told it's supposed to be a problem. That's what Dobson did.

Add in his history with McCain-Feingold, which castrated the political speech of Christian organizations, dissing the Value Voters Debate as nearly his first official act, and coming out against the two Christian sponsored amendments.

I take it you're a Huckabee supporter. The "two Christian sponsored amendments" are just red flags to wave at the base to get them riled up. Nothing more. Nothing less. I almost hoped that Huckabee would get elected so that we could hear his explanation as to why he didn't even get those to a vote in Congress (to say nothing of having the individual states ratify). But y'all would have a "really good reason" as to why he couldn't. Anyone who believes his crap about RLA and DOMA is susceptible to all sorts of trickery.

Finally, Huckabee is an inveterate liar, a practiced prevaricator of the first order. It bothers the evangelicals not at all. Which makes me think that the person just has to "be one of the group" and that excuses any bad behavior that they have.

"I fail to see how Fred's appearance at a sparsely attended non-event watched by 37 people on EWTN would have seriously impacted the race, other than to stroke the egos and kissing the...er...um...rings of certain, so-called evangelical Christian leaders."

It's not hard to see, you're looking at it right now.

Let me be more precise. I don't see how Fred's attendance would have changed the attitudes of the alleged evangelical Christian leaders opposed to Fred. The alleged slight was pretense only.

My take: Anyone who crafted or bought into this Dobson/Values Voters attack on Fred is a phoney baloney Christian, a phoney baloney conservative or both.

With McCain's victory in Florida tonight, the death of the GOP and the conservative has drawn even closer. Yet some mindless, but faithful evangelicals are more concerned about whether Fred slighted their narrow brand of evangelical purity and their blind devotion to 2 hypothetical and losing constitutional amendment arguments.

Isn't Thompson the candidate who is opposed to a Constitutional amendment to protect marriage, believes there should be 50 different definitions of marriage in the U.S., favors McCain-Feingold, won't talk at all about what he believes, and can't speak his way out of a paper bag on the campaign trail?" Dobson wrote.

"He has no passion, no zeal, and no apparent 'want to.' And yet he is apparently the Great Hope that burns in the breasts of many conservative Christians? Well, not for me, my brothers. Not for me!"

Gilgoff's reporting is not what Dobson said that hurt Thompson. I'm sure you didn't forget the email.

Dobson does not have a flock, which shows you know absolutely nothing about Dobson.

Dobson has a following who follow his ideas that he professes on the radio with the same diligence that they follow their Sunday Pastor's pronouncements. Oftentimes moreso. To deny that is to either distort the reality of evangelical thought processes or to be ignorant thereof.

"Answer this: have you ever met a bad or mean Mormon?

Yes, I've known several Mormons and I've worked with them. And they can be nice, but I've also known Mormons that lied. I knew a defense attorney here that was representing a Mormon father that raped his own daughter because she disobeyed him. That point system of yours for good works only influences surface behavior so far. But it's not about Mormon's behavior. It's about the truth of what they believe, and the impact of those beliefs, if you elect one as President.

Mormon's believe in contrast to scripture, that there are many Gods, that Jesus was a completely different God than the Father, that both the Father and Jesus started out as men who were promoted to Godhood. It's a false religion. You might as well send up a hindu, or a wiccan. None of them would get my vote.

Fortunately, McCain just took Florida. And reports are that Rudy's about to endorse McCain. At least I can vote for McCain over the Democrats. I don't suppose McCain-Feingold would be any worse on our rights than Clinton.

Anyone who crafted or bought into this Dobson/Values Voters attack on Fred is a phoney baloney Christian, a phoney baloney conservative or both.

All I can tell you is that you are deep in denial. You may clamp your hands over your ears and sing "la la la la" all you like. You can rant and rave and call anyone who didn't support Fred a "phoney baloney Christian, a phoney baloney conservative or both", content in your happy little world of "Frederalist" devotion- But the rubber has already hit the road.

It is easy to see- Fred cratered, and Huckabee rose up right out of the basement. Something about Fred didn't gel with those folks, nearly every one of them Evangelical Pro-Lifers according to the press.

You may continue to deny what faithful Christian FReepers (myself included) said right here on this board, when they expressed their extreme dismay at Fred's overt snubbing of the Christian political cause, denying now, like many did then, what is so evident and apparent to us.

You may even forget that Fred's own campaign manager actually admitted that they had a lot of work to try and strengthen Fred with the Christian Right...

No matter how you cry and moan and gnash your teeth, No matter how you blame and spin the truth, you cannot deny the numbers.

And no matter your caterwauling and blind idiocy and devotion to false prophets and evangelical purity, the conservative movement will continue to wither away and neither of us will achieve legislative or electoral victory.

Which was the actual point of my vanity post.

None of Huckabee's supporters-to-be on the ground thought this until they were told that's what they were to think. You can cover your ears and sing la-la-la all you want. All Huckabee has done is give McCain a shot at the nomination. And 3 or 4 subsequent RINO-living-breathing-Constitutional Justices. So long overturning Roe v. Wade. Good show. Really well done.

Perhaps you'd be the one Huckabee supporter to show us how a DOMA or RLA would be enacted by President Huckabee. Flowcharts, power point presentations, graphs and music videos are acceptable entries (I'd even accept simply a list of states which would make up the 75% of ratifying states). Seeing as no one will do that, I'll take that as tacit admission that those are just red meat to convince the proletariat to do as they're told.

Wrong again.

The Republicans will wither away, and Baker's Big Tent may lie empty, torn and tattered like Republican "principles", but you need not worry about Reagan Conservatives. They and their cause will outlive it all, long after the Republicans have gone the way of the Whigs.

Well, McCain has a better temperment than Hillary.

NOT

And I think McCain actually voted with the Republicans a couple of times more than Hillary.

Other than the WOT, not on anything that matters.

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