Posted on 01/25/2008 2:20:10 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Clock ticking for Kim's Korea
24 January 2008
Kim Jong-Il's regime could collapse within six months, bringing chaos to North Korea, observers and intelligence sources in Asia have told Jane's.
A joint United States report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the US Institute for Peace has also revealed that China has "contingency plans" in the event of North Korea's implosion. The report, entitled 'Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor', said that China was prepared to "take the initiative" and had a military strategy for securing North Korea's "loose nukes" should Kim Jong-Il's rule fail.
(Excerpt) Read more at janes.com ...
If true, this is a significant development. At the least, he activiated his contingency plan. So I suspect things are not going Kim's way.
There are some troubling signs reported in S. Korean media.
They are hunkering down and keep population on real short leash. I think they could go for one last shot. A engineered provocation which they hope spook S. Korea, U.S., and China back to appeasement on the previous level.
If that fails, Kim Jong-il may figure that he has to prepare for the worst.
Ping!
Ummmmm...
CSIS and US Institute For Peace — don’t think I’m ready to bet the rent on this one.....
CSIS report is basically the old info recycled. I am curious about its timing, though.
” report on N. Korea’s possible collapse could be part of an orchestrated campaign to rattle Kim’s cage, “
We’ve been seeing premature reports of Kimmie’s demise for quite a while, now, and given the NCIS penchant for including large dollops of wishful thinking in its analyses, I think I’ll remain in ‘waitfully watching’ mode... ;~)
I do, however, find the reference to ‘loose nukes’ intriguing — with its implication that there actually may be operational weapons in NK, putting the lie to the characterization of Kimmie as a toothless tiger after the infamous ‘fizzle’ test....
“The Central Intelligence Agency predicted the collapse of North Korea within five years.”
The C.I.A. couldn’t predict the demise of the Soviet Union.
The same C.I.A. that tried to do in the Iraqi war?
So much money goes to this agency for so few good results.
” given the NCIS “
Make that “CSIS” ...
(That’s what I get for having the TV going in the background...)
What happens with a power vacuum in North Korea; do we see a war among the generals of the Army? Do the Chinese come in and effectively make North Korea a colonial possession?
What is your opinion, please?
China blocked shipping of food and grain into N. Korea since the beginning of this year. Usually, when this kind of report comes out, there used to be another report disputing it. This time there is no such report now. The shipping must have been indeed blocked. This includes China’s food export and international food aids procured in China.
Perhaps this is due to the food shortage in China? The reason is that the Chinese have added more items for their price control in order to reduce inflation.
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=191991
But price control => shortage of food as more is going to the black market.
The poor in the interior of China have problem in paying for food.
According to various source, the WMD entities were moved to Syria. They had plenty of time to do so.
Factions will vie for power. A faction will include party officials, generals, and security agents. If a faction feel that it is about to lose out, it may reach out to outside player for help. That would be different from any N. Korean power struggles in the past. It will drag in outside players, one way or another.
Without sufficient objection from S. Korea or U.S., China will try to install a puppet regime in N. Korea and may well succeed.
I don't think that's China's real motive. They can't stand the possibility of a reunited democratic Korea right on their border. That would be worse for them than having a free Taiwan or Hong Kong.
Kim falls, China steps in to assure order, grabs all nukes for themselves. China does not want to run Korea, too many headaches, but can use this to eliminate a threat.
They agree to reunify Korea under the south’s government, on condition unified Korea becomes neutral and U.S. troops leave. South Korea is nominally independent and neutral, but becomes economically a Chinese vassal.
The Chinese only have to wait for Hillary to take the White House and it becomes possible for a few suitcases full of cash.
The poor in America are fat and own DVD players and color TV's they bought from Walmart, shipped in from China! Take that, Chairman Mao!
They are hunkering down and keep population on real short leash
Poor choice of words: http://www.kimsoft.com/1997/eat-dog.htm
Didn’t know his background.....how ‘bout this guy:
or am I barking up the wrong tree?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.