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With Thompson Out, Who Benefits Most?
Washington Post ^ | 1/21/08 | Chris Cilizza

Posted on 01/23/2008 8:11:24 AM PST by freespirited

...What's clear is that with Thompson out, the crowd on the ideological right grows less crowded.

The exit polls from the Palmetto State underscore Thompson's appeal to the most conservative GOP voters. Among the voters who described themselves as "very conservative" Huckabee led the way with 41%, but Thompson claimed 22% percent (McCain placed third with 19% followed by Romney with 16%).

"Based on South Carolina, a state that Thompson worked pretty hard, his departure would seem to help Huckabee and Romney probably more so than McCain," said Neil Newhouse, an [unaffiliated] Republican pollster..

Given Thompson's strengths with very conservative voters and evangelicals, it seems as though Huckabee should be the obvious beneficiary. But Huckabee hasn't won a contest since Iowa, and his dearth of cash raises real questions about whether he will be able to capitalize on Thompson's departure in Florida.

Enter Romney who is campaigning hard for the votes of conservatives in Florida and [who] will almost certainly spend the most money on reaching voters in the Sunshine State. ... Thompson's departure coupled with Huckabee's uncertain commitment to the state give the former Massachusetts governor the best chance he's had yet.

While Thompson's exit could well help Romney or Huckabee in the short run, his departure could accrue to McCain's benefit in the long-term battle for the nomination. ..

... The Post's last national poll suggests that McCain may gain a very slight boost from Thompson's departure. If Thompson is eliminated and his supporters' second choices are re-allocated, that poll showed McCain leading the Republican field with 30% -- 2% higher than he received with Thompson included in the ballot test. The only other candidate to make gains with the reallocation of Thompson supporters was Giuliani, who went from 15% with Thompson in to 18% with him out.

(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: fred; gopnomination
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I really don't think anyone can say with confidence where Fred's voters will go. I suspect they will divide up among multiple candidates. I also won't be surprised if a fair number just stay home.
1 posted on 01/23/2008 8:11:25 AM PST by freespirited
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To: freespirited

When Fred was running, the media completely ignored him.

Now that he quit, he’s suddenly a hot media topic.


2 posted on 01/23/2008 8:16:10 AM PST by samtheman
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To: freespirited

This Fred voter is going for Guilianni in Florida; I want confusion and no candidate at the convention so that we have an outside chance of choosing a conservative there.


3 posted on 01/23/2008 8:16:14 AM PST by Greg F (Romney supported the right of homosexuals to be Scout Masters in 1994.)
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To: Greg F

Basic idea is that if we have 4 candidates with a good number of delegates nobody wins, so vote Guilianni . . .!


4 posted on 01/23/2008 8:17:42 AM PST by Greg F (Romney supported the right of homosexuals to be Scout Masters in 1994.)
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To: freespirited

National reporter Jamie Dupree just stated that Thompson’s run for President was never taken very seriously by his own staffers or observers outside his campaign. During this interview, another participant in the discussion referred to Thompson as “chicken” when referring to his unwillingness to embrace fundamental change to the income tax laws.


5 posted on 01/23/2008 8:18:20 AM PST by Arcy
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To: freespirited
With Thompson Out, Who Benefits Most?


6 posted on 01/23/2008 8:18:35 AM PST by Old Sarge (CTHULHU '08 - I won't settle for a lesser evil any longer!)
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To: freespirited

While I was totally sure of my support for Fred, because I believed he was running for the good of the country, not for his own interests, now I am so confused with where to put my support. I do not like any of the candidates remaining.


7 posted on 01/23/2008 8:19:48 AM PST by hoe_cake
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To: freespirited

There is only one real conservative left. And it isn’t the one that has changed every issue to be elected (Flip Romney). Huckabee may not be perfect, but he is the only authentic conservative left.


8 posted on 01/23/2008 8:20:34 AM PST by nckerr (www.myspace.com/ArmyKerrFamily)
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To: samtheman

The media loves when candidates like FT dont get the votes or poll well


9 posted on 01/23/2008 8:22:30 AM PST by italianquaker (Is there anything Ron Paul doesn't blame the USA for?)
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To: nckerr

Yep.


10 posted on 01/23/2008 8:24:07 AM PST by FreedomProtector
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To: Greg F
There aren't a lot of good options, and your idea seems like one of the better ones. I'm in MA and we vote on Super Tuesday -- I may give my vote to Giuliani in order to send a crowd to the convention.

But I think Hillary will be president.

11 posted on 01/23/2008 8:24:52 AM PST by ClearCase_guy (Oh, am I hijacking your rant?)
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To: Old Sarge

You called it. Any Dem will be helped, since a very large bloc of “Stay-at-home-voters” just developed.


12 posted on 01/23/2008 8:24:58 AM PST by Cyber Liberty (Don't trust anyone who can’t take a joke. [Congressman BillyBob])
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To: freespirited

Huckabee.


13 posted on 01/23/2008 8:25:09 AM PST by FreedomProtector
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To: freespirited

Todays intersting HIllary news.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1958230/posts


14 posted on 01/23/2008 8:25:36 AM PST by OPS4 (Ops4 God Bless America!)
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To: freespirited

A wise man once said

...........................................

“When the enemies of this country are at the negotiating table, who do you want representing you? Whoever that guy is, that’s the guy you ought to vote for President.”

- Fred Thompson


15 posted on 01/23/2008 8:26:36 AM PST by IrishMike (Liberalism is Jihad from within)
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To: freespirited

I like Fred - but his supporters/voters were not a significant number - despite how it would appear to someone who spends a lot of time on this site!


16 posted on 01/23/2008 8:26:42 AM PST by Scarchin (Romney/Thompson 2008)
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To: freespirited

After listening to the Ron Paul interview on the Glenn Beck Show this moring, I am almost convinced that Dr Paul understand our economy, and how closely it is tied to taxing and spending than any other candidate. But his lack of support for my soldiers in Iraq is disturbing enough I have problems supporting Paul.

Had Fred jumped when everyone else jumped, he may have fared better, having time to polish his persona before the Primary season rather than playing catch up to the other practiced candidates.

Frankly, I really don’t know who I will support. My 1st choice is gone. Probably my 2nd and 3rd choices will not make it either. So why settle for a bottom feeder RINO who looks no different than the Democrat bottom feeders.

Why vote just for the sake of exercising that right?
Expect less, settle for less, vote for lowered expectations. No thanks.


17 posted on 01/23/2008 8:27:17 AM PST by o_zarkman44 (No Bull in 08!)
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To: samtheman

I disagree.

Fred had the media spotlight early on and he squandered it.


18 posted on 01/23/2008 8:28:38 AM PST by Scarchin (Romney/Thompson 2008)
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To: freespirited

I’ll go Huckabee. At least on the issues that he is conservative, he is authentically conservative. And despite all the hysterics, he is only a moderate on the others.

And he is the only authentic conservative on the issues that matter when it comes to appointing judges. And thats whats going to be important as probably 2 more SCOTUS seats will come open the next four years.


19 posted on 01/23/2008 8:30:17 AM PST by Dreagon
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To: Arcy

I disagree with DuPree.
Fred was very specific on changes to the tax system. But like everything else conservative about Fred, he was dissed and ignored by the MSM. Liberals are too threatened by a TRUE CONSERVATIVE to ever allow someone like Fred to gain momentum.
But Democrats could live with a RINO, so the RINO is passed off as “conservative”. Talk about deception!


20 posted on 01/23/2008 8:31:16 AM PST by o_zarkman44 (No Bull in 08!)
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