Posted on 01/23/2008 8:11:24 AM PST by freespirited
...What's clear is that with Thompson out, the crowd on the ideological right grows less crowded.
The exit polls from the Palmetto State underscore Thompson's appeal to the most conservative GOP voters. Among the voters who described themselves as "very conservative" Huckabee led the way with 41%, but Thompson claimed 22% percent (McCain placed third with 19% followed by Romney with 16%).
"Based on South Carolina, a state that Thompson worked pretty hard, his departure would seem to help Huckabee and Romney probably more so than McCain," said Neil Newhouse, an [unaffiliated] Republican pollster..
Given Thompson's strengths with very conservative voters and evangelicals, it seems as though Huckabee should be the obvious beneficiary. But Huckabee hasn't won a contest since Iowa, and his dearth of cash raises real questions about whether he will be able to capitalize on Thompson's departure in Florida.
Enter Romney who is campaigning hard for the votes of conservatives in Florida and [who] will almost certainly spend the most money on reaching voters in the Sunshine State. ... Thompson's departure coupled with Huckabee's uncertain commitment to the state give the former Massachusetts governor the best chance he's had yet.
While Thompson's exit could well help Romney or Huckabee in the short run, his departure could accrue to McCain's benefit in the long-term battle for the nomination. ..
... The Post's last national poll suggests that McCain may gain a very slight boost from Thompson's departure. If Thompson is eliminated and his supporters' second choices are re-allocated, that poll showed McCain leading the Republican field with 30% -- 2% higher than he received with Thompson included in the ballot test. The only other candidate to make gains with the reallocation of Thompson supporters was Giuliani, who went from 15% with Thompson in to 18% with him out.
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
Yes, I’m looking hard at Romney. I don’t like what I’m seeing in Huckabee (his smoking ban and gov’t insurance). McCain scares me (for what reason I don’t know...just instinct). And Ron Paul’s isolationist ideas, while I like some of them, won’t be good for our economy.
Our family has switched to Mitt.
ditto
I think you are missing the point. Rational people know that Southern baptists don’t handle snakes and speak in tongues. But if Huck get the nod, the MSM will find one quacky southern baptist church that does and try to represent it as “all” southern Baptist churches.
Sucks, but I can see that happening.
Tell it to the main stream media, not me. Read my post again.
JP
Hasn’t Romney flipped a bit though?
I don’t like his anti-gun stand.
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
I agree.
I don't think so. They might try, but it would cause an uproar if they did it in the context of a national election.
Plus there are too many of us. Most people know what Southern Baptists are really like. And don't forget that there are a lot of old school southern democrats identify with Baptists and might switch rather than put Hillary or Obama in office.
All I know is, I will be voting for anyone running against HRC.
I mean anyone.
Switch2Mitt
With Fred dropping, I’m left with Mitt as the best of what’s left.
Anyone that thinks Huckster is an authentic conservative needs to look up the term “limited government”.
Just because the guy prays doesn’t make him “conservative”.
Heck, I’ll even take McCain over Huckabee.... at least McCain understands what a conservative is SUPPOSED to SOUND like ( Now if his past votes only matched up with what his rhetoric in the debates has been).
Good point. Depending on when the poll was taken, maybe a couple percentage points went to Duncan Hunter and they didnt include him because he has now dropped out? But I cant imagine that would explain the entire 5 pct points. Something is not right, or a lot of Fred folks had no second choice.
I believe a vote for Giuliani would only help McCain in Florida. I was with Fred as long as he was in this race and at the same time I thought about whom my second choice would be if things didn’t go my way. I think those who are counting on voting in a certain way to make the nominee chosen at the convention are wrong. It would only help McCain to win the nomination. I have considered all of the options and have made what I believe to be a quality decision. I will be voting for Mitt Romney next Tuesday.
Switch to Mitt . . . see tagline. No way.
Nah, Mitt will blow with the wind and the wind created by the media and the establishment blows to the left. He’s not the man.
What do you think he should have done differently?
One of the problems I have with Mitt is he is always on defense. I believe that is what lost the election for George Allen. He allowed himself to be put on defense for the Macacah comment, and it made him look weak. Whoever runs against Hillary in the general will always be put on defense by her campaign. Look what she’s doing to Obama. Whoever is the Republican candidate had better stay on offense and keep her on defense, and I don’t see Romney doing that. I did see Fred doing that.
The big problem with a brokered convention is that the Dems will have a fortune to plaster the airwaves with negative ads once the choice is made to try to define the Republican nominee. We will need to have cash and organization at the ready to combat that.
Idealogical right is “less crowded”? How about “Nonexistent”?
Re-draft Duncan Hunter into the Presidential Race
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1958247/posts
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