With Thompson Out, Who Benefits Most?

Washington Post ^ | 1/21/08 | Chris Cilizza

[freespirited]

...What's clear is that with Thompson out, the crowd on the ideological right grows less crowded.

The exit polls from the Palmetto State underscore Thompson's appeal to the most conservative GOP voters. Among the voters who described themselves as "very conservative" Huckabee led the way with 41%, but Thompson claimed 22% percent (McCain placed third with 19% followed by Romney with 16%).

"Based on South Carolina, a state that Thompson worked pretty hard, his departure would seem to help Huckabee and Romney probably more so than McCain," said Neil Newhouse, an [unaffiliated] Republican pollster..

Given Thompson's strengths with very conservative voters and evangelicals, it seems as though Huckabee should be the obvious beneficiary. But Huckabee hasn't won a contest since Iowa, and his dearth of cash raises real questions about whether he will be able to capitalize on Thompson's departure in Florida.

Enter Romney who is campaigning hard for the votes of conservatives in Florida and [who] will almost certainly spend the most money on reaching voters in the Sunshine State. ... Thompson's departure coupled with Huckabee's uncertain commitment to the state give the former Massachusetts governor the best chance he's had yet.

While Thompson's exit could well help Romney or Huckabee in the short run, his departure could accrue to McCain's benefit in the long-term battle for the nomination. ..

... The Post's last national poll suggests that McCain may gain a very slight boost from Thompson's departure. If Thompson is eliminated and his supporters' second choices are re-allocated, that poll showed McCain leading the Republican field with 30% -- 2% higher than he received with Thompson included in the ballot test. The only other candidate to make gains with the reallocation of Thompson supporters was Giuliani, who went from 15% with Thompson in to 18% with him out.

[ejonesie22]

The democrats.

[Always Right]

My guess....Fred voters;

1. Romney......35%
2. Stay at Home....30%
3. Huckabee....18%
4. McCain....12%
5. Rudy.....5%

[CharlesWayneCT]

The Post's last national poll suggests that McCain may gain a very slight boost from Thompson's departure. If Thompson is eliminated and his supporters' second choices are re-allocated, that poll showed McCain leading the Republican field with 30% -- 2% higher than he received with Thompson included in the ballot test. The only other candidate to make gains with the reallocation of Thompson supporters was Giuliani, who went from 15% with Thompson in to 18% with him out.

This doesn't make sense to me. Thompson was at better than 10% in the poll. Unless most of his supporters said they had NO 2nd place, it seems all the other candidates should have gone up by a total of 10% or more.

But they only showed a total of 5% boost in other candidates.

[skinkinthegrass]

C'mon WaPO!...You know, who benefits.....that Stalinist/Socailist-Marxist *itch, $hrillary!

[Always Right]

I like Fred - but his supporters/voters were not a significant number - despite how it would appear to someone who spends a lot of time on this site!

9-12% in a close race is a lot.

[EscapedDutch]

And should Huckabee win the nomination, the media will tear him to shreads so hard and fast, his head will spin. The man has a snowball’s chance in hell and the reasons have nothing to do with his politics per se:

- Funny name (Letterman et al will take that task)
- Not just a Christian, but an ordained Southern Baptist minister, oh boy. Aren’t they the ones that speak in tongues and fondle snakes? By November many of the voting sheeple will think so!
- Dorky looking (Again, Letterman et al)
- Southerner from Arkansas (Do you really think lighting will strike twice?)

I could go on, but you get my point. The reality is that the majority of voters don’t care about issues, because they rarely understand them. The people on this forum are the exception, not the rule.

Do you think George W. won because of his clear communication of his understanding of the issues? Or maybe because enough people thought both Gore and Kerry were boring, smartest kid in the class snobs? Who gave the impression they were better than anybody? The question that I think will best predict the next president is “Who would you rather invite to a BBQ?” George W. won that hands down, but by the time the media has unloaded on Huckabee full force, people would be willing to BBQ him.

I’m just rambling, P.O.ed about this field of candidates....

JP

[Hang'emAll]

I really don't think anyone can say with confidence where Fred's voters will go.....

Here at FR we had 2 polls that sort of point out where we as a group went without Fred.

Prior to the drop out. (1/19) After all the shifting polls, the debates, the campaigning, the media propaganda blitz, the early primaries, candidates dropping out, etc, are you staying with your first choice or going to another? Staying with Romney 11.7%

After the drop out. (1/22) With FRed dropping out, who do you now support for the Republican nomination? Mitt Romney 51.6%

[skinkinthegrass]

*sick/ $hrillary /sick*

YULP! ...thats' the one!
btw, good tagline.

[wbill]

I don't like any of the candidates left. However, if forced to hold my nose and choose...

1. Romney/Guiliani (They're about the same, IMHO)

2. McCain

3. Obama

4. Ron Paul

5. Cut off my arm so that I can't pull the lever

6. Hillary! Clinton

Having said that, should Hillary! get the nomination, I'll be voting Republican. Period.

[Scarchin]

Perhaps - but I see them spreading out or staying home.

[Billthedrill]

Bingo. I was gonna gen up a one-word reply but yours is better.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Your plan will fail.

Voting to send more liberals to the convention will not improve the chances of the convention picking a conservative.

The convention will be run by the party. The party has the delegates, who are committed to the various winners only for a few votes, and then can vote as the party sees fit.

SO unless you think the party is likely to pick a more conservative candidate than the guy you are voting for, the outcome will be bad.

And the more votes people give to the people they hate, the more the party will look at those people and say “hey, he had a lot of votes, let’s pick him”.

I’m not sure who the party would pick, but I’m guessing someone like Tom Ridge, or Bill Owens. Not those people particulary, but that kind of candidate, a good establishment candidate, someone unlikely to have rocked the boat.

Go ahead and make your plans and vote however you want. But don’t think it’s going to work.

[ClearCase_guy]

My optimism would not be high — but I really see no other option. I would be very, very surprised to find myself voting in November.

[nckerr]

Southern Baptist minister, oh boy. Aren’t they the ones that speak in tongues and fondle snakes?

Besides the Catholics, Southern Baptist are the largest denomination in the United States. THey are the largest protestant denomination. And no they do not fondle snakes and "speak in tongues". The apostle Paul spoke in tongues and the fastest growing religion (Pentecostalism) is the one that speaks in tongues. Pentecostalism went from a group of about 100 in the hills of Tennessee to Asuza Street in Los Angeles in 1906 and now has 500 Million worldwide in just over 100 years. Huckabee is electable. He is a great man who is not a Flip Flopper and liberal like McAmnesty and Flip Romney.

[Codeflier]

I want some of what you are smoking...

[o_zarkman44]

Why vote just to exercise that right when one has to compromise 100% just for a rubber stamp RINO?

Our country is being forced to settle for lower and lower expectations with every national election.
It is obvious that a vote will never bring about the changes we need in Washington. What we need is a revolution. When over 50% of eligible voters feel completely disenfranchised, the national election is worthless and will never effect the real change we need.

[Diogenesis]

[McGruff]

now I am so confused with where to put my support. I do not like any of the candidates remaining.

I've looked at the rest and believe Romney would be the best of the worst. He's no Fred but, I feel he'd run the country like a business. Hopefully a successful one.

I'll vote whoever is the republican nominee this time because it's Satan or Osama if we don't.

[RasterMaster]

1st, 2nd and 3rd choice have all dropped leaving only UNACCEPTABLE RINOs.

FLIP Romney = mandated healthcare (Hillarycare), no thanks!

RINO Rudy = Pro-gay, anti-gun, cross-dressing...hell no!

NACHOS McCain = Anti-free speech CFR, Pro-shAmnesty...nope!

Huckaboob = Nanny state, pro-tax & spend LIEberal from one of the worst states in the nation....no way!

Ron Paul = Anti-troop NUTJOB....welcome to Kooksville!

Out of the pack of RINOs, probably helps John McLame the most as that’s who FRed will endorse....but overall it helps the JACKASS party the most.