Posted on 01/21/2008 5:06:48 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Mitt Romney with a slight lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are close behind in what may develop into a three-man race. It’s Romney at 25%, McCain at 20%, and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up seven points over the past week while McCain and Giuliani each inched up a point.
Last week, before the Michigan and South Carolina Primaries, Rasmussen Reports polling found essentially a four-way tie for the lead in Florida. However, Mike Huckabee has slipped to 13% in the current poll. A week ago, he was the top choice for 17%.
One major wild card in the race may be Fred Thompson. The former Senator from Tennessee is considering dropping out of the race after a disappointing showing in South Carolina last Saturday. Twelve percent (12%) of Florida’s Likely Republican Primary Voters still support the actor turned politician.
Even though early voting has already begun, the race remains incredibly fluid. Just 54% of likely voters say they are “certain” of how they will vote. Six percent (6%) have not yet made up their mind and 12% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Giuliani and Huckabee have the most solid support at this time. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Giuliani’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him along with 65% of those who favor Huckabee. For Romney, just 55% are that certain. For McCain, just 48% are that certain. In fact, 22% of McCain’s supporters still say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Among those who are “certain” how they will vote, Romney is the pick for 25%, Giuliani 24%, and McCain 17%.
Florida represents both a major challenge and a major opportunity for McCain. Both result from the fact that Independent voters are not allowed to participate in Florida’s Republican Primary. In McCain’s earlier victories, he has been competitive among Republican voters but won with the votes of Independents. If he is to win the GOP nomination, McCain must sooner or later show that he can win among Republicans. On the other hand, if McCain can win a Republican-only Primary in Florida, he will have a major advantage heading into Super Tuesday a week later.
In Florida, Romney leads among conservative voters, attracting 28% of them. Giuliani is second with 18%.
Among moderates, McCain dominates with 34% support. Giuliani is second with 23%.
Huckabee leads among the state’s Evangelical Christian voters, but his lead is not as substantial as in earlier states. Huckabee currently attracts 25% of the Evangelical vote, Romney 20%, and Thompson 17%.
Giuliani is viewed favorably by 74% of Likely Primary Voters. Romney’s favorables are at 70%, Thompson at 66%, McCain at 64%, Huckabee at 54% and Paul at 28%.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely Primary Voters view Thompson as politically conservative, 45% say the same about Huckabee and 43% view Romney as a conservative. Just 21% see McCain in that way while 14% see Giuliani as a conservative.
Eighty-three percent (83%) see Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal and 76% say the same about McCain. Fifty percent (50%) see Huckabee as moderate or liberal and 49% hold that view of Romney.
Last week’s survey found that Giuliani and McCain were seen as the most electable Republican candidates.
McCain and Romney lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Before the caucuses and primaries began, Huckabee led the Florida Primary in December. Giuliani held the lead in November. A victory in Florida is crucial for Giuliani who has chosen to stay out of earlier contests in Election 2008. The high risk strategy calls for Giuliani to accept defeats in the early states, win Florida, and translate that momentum into victory on Super Tuesday, February 5.
I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said.
I was a financial supporter (a $ small one) back in ‘94 when he first ran for the Senate.
But his campaign has never been able to get some serious traction. And I think I know why.
Earlier today on Dennis Prager’s show, a DC political analyst (was it Bill Sammon?) said that Thompson just doesn’t seem to have the fire in the belly. He cited several examples.
What I wish Thompson had done was have gotten in the race sooner. All the hemming and hawing he did last summer gave a n impression to many people that he wasn’t committed to the race.
Who served in the military
is Pro Life
against illegals and nafta?
Is that the same guy supported by both Birkenstocker hippies/anarchists and KKK/Neo-Nazi types? No thanks!
and what is remarkable is that Osama Obama is a Muslim.
That takes a lot of guts, doesn’t it?
I’m going to vote for the RINO cuz the polls say...and the media says...and I heard that...
I thought this was a conservative forum.
I’m silly enough to believe Rudy will win Florida.
All the Romney folks hope we’ll all rush to Mitt.
That’s why they’re bashing him so hard.
Of course, the supported a RINO from the beginning, so why should their opinions matter, any way?
He should with all the time and money he has spent there. Tied with 2 others in the polls cannot be good news for Rudy. He should be ahead in the polls at this point in time.
If all the people who say they were supporting Fred today actually did it, he’d win by 20 points.
Yes, and in that thread is a post from a Thompson campaigner who says Carl Cameron’s reporting is BS.
For all of you who are so anxious to get the last conservative out of the race, I ask: Are you just RINOs?
You supported Romney over Fred in the first place.
Your advice is suspect.
I’m not anxious at all. But Fred seems to be not connecting as he needs to. I’ll vote for him if he’s still in it on Super Tuesday.
In past post, you’ve accused the media of controlling the primaries. But you come on to FR today to post, repeatedly, that you’re a former FredHead now supporting Mitt.
Who is in control of your vote?
Fair enough. All Fred needs are votes.
Even if Fred doesn’t win your state, it will be harder to ignore the conservative voting block.
The media is already spinning the McCain “landslides” as the death knell for conservatives.
I will not participate in their plans.
If Fred does not win in my state (Tennessee), well .....fill in the blank
Fred is “done” because those who say they wanted to vote for him, did not.
Who is in control of your vote?
I am in control of my vote. Fred has not made the move that I expected him to make with voters in South Carolina and in other states. Now other FredHeads are faced with either wasting a vote and allowing John McCain to take over our party...or we get behind a candidate who can defeat John McCain.
I choose to make sure that my vote counts towards something and does not allow unwanted circumstances to arise from overlooking reality.
You mean John McCain from here in Arizona?? lol
Unfortunately, I am in Florida and we have not voted yet.
Maybe Fred will win in your state if you, and others like you, support him.
This has been a calculated process, state by state, to push voters away from Fred. Why? Do you think it’s personal?
It’s because he is conservative. Voting for the RINO gives the MSM the ammunition they need to call the conservative movement “dead.”
I’m sticking with him until he leaves the race. Tomorrow may be different and I’ll deal with it. But I’m voting my conservative conscience.
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