Election 2008: Florida Republican Primary-Romney 25% McCain 20% Giuliani 19% (Rasmussen)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | Monday, January 21, 2008 | Scott Rasmussen

[2ndDivisionVet]

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Mitt Romney with a slight lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are close behind in what may develop into a three-man race. It’s Romney at 25%, McCain at 20%, and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up seven points over the past week while McCain and Giuliani each inched up a point.

Last week, before the Michigan and South Carolina Primaries, Rasmussen Reports polling found essentially a four-way tie for the lead in Florida. However, Mike Huckabee has slipped to 13% in the current poll. A week ago, he was the top choice for 17%.

One major wild card in the race may be Fred Thompson. The former Senator from Tennessee is considering dropping out of the race after a disappointing showing in South Carolina last Saturday. Twelve percent (12%) of Florida’s Likely Republican Primary Voters still support the actor turned politician.

Even though early voting has already begun, the race remains incredibly fluid. Just 54% of likely voters say they are “certain” of how they will vote. Six percent (6%) have not yet made up their mind and 12% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.

Giuliani and Huckabee have the most solid support at this time. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Giuliani’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him along with 65% of those who favor Huckabee. For Romney, just 55% are that certain. For McCain, just 48% are that certain. In fact, 22% of McCain’s supporters still say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.

Among those who are “certain” how they will vote, Romney is the pick for 25%, Giuliani 24%, and McCain 17%.

Florida represents both a major challenge and a major opportunity for McCain. Both result from the fact that Independent voters are not allowed to participate in Florida’s Republican Primary. In McCain’s earlier victories, he has been competitive among Republican voters but won with the votes of Independents. If he is to win the GOP nomination, McCain must sooner or later show that he can win among Republicans. On the other hand, if McCain can win a Republican-only Primary in Florida, he will have a major advantage heading into Super Tuesday a week later.

In Florida, Romney leads among conservative voters, attracting 28% of them. Giuliani is second with 18%.

Among moderates, McCain dominates with 34% support. Giuliani is second with 23%.

Huckabee leads among the state’s Evangelical Christian voters, but his lead is not as substantial as in earlier states. Huckabee currently attracts 25% of the Evangelical vote, Romney 20%, and Thompson 17%.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 74% of Likely Primary Voters. Romney’s favorables are at 70%, Thompson at 66%, McCain at 64%, Huckabee at 54% and Paul at 28%.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely Primary Voters view Thompson as politically conservative, 45% say the same about Huckabee and 43% view Romney as a conservative. Just 21% see McCain in that way while 14% see Giuliani as a conservative.

Eighty-three percent (83%) see Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal and 76% say the same about McCain. Fifty percent (50%) see Huckabee as moderate or liberal and 49% hold that view of Romney.

Last week’s survey found that Giuliani and McCain were seen as the most electable Republican candidates.

McCain and Romney lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Before the caucuses and primaries began, Huckabee led the Florida Primary in December. Giuliani held the lead in November. A victory in Florida is crucial for Giuliani who has chosen to stay out of earlier contests in Election 2008. The high risk strategy calls for Giuliani to accept defeats in the early states, win Florida, and translate that momentum into victory on Super Tuesday, February 5.

[Kellis91789]

Rudy’s supporters will go to McCain.

Huckabee’s will split Fred and McCain.

[jwalsh07]

Huck's done as is Fred, the difference is that Fred knows it. Such is life in politics.

Giuliani can still fill the inside straight but the odds are deep.

The nomination is between Romney and McCain. That's it. Which forces me to vote for Romney on Super Tuesday.

[Kellis91789]

All I know is my mom saw some documentary about Mormonism and afterward she vowed to vote for anybody BUT Romney.

They won’t attack Romney for being Mormon, but they’ll make Mormonism look so crackpot that he’ll be smeared by association. There are no campaign finance laws to stop the amount of money Soros and others could pump into sponsoring broadcasts of such “educational” documentaries.

[Kellis91789]

That’s a thought. I was hoping SC would do that for us by dealing McCain and Huckabee body blows with a Fred win.

Didn’t happen. I think people are caught up in the ‘horserace’ and are trying to guess the ‘winner’ instead of voting for the best candiate.

It seems amazingly stupid, but there is psychological urge to be able to say “Yeah, I was a xxxx supporter from the beginning !”

[gpapa]

Various sources, including Mark Levin on his radio show and the American Spectator, are reporting that Fred’s mother is gravely ill. I suggest everyone take a break and do not make any rash decisions on your vote until we hear from Fred. This is a time to offer our prayers for Fred’s mother and his family.

[Doofer]

There a 250 post thread on this very board. Look for it.

Thanks I found it and it appears to be a rumor, but we shall see.

[Signalman]

Former FRedheads! Join us Mittbots, and we will stop McCain next week... and we will stop the Hildabeast next November.

[mbraynard]

I'm pretty tight with the campaign, and I don't need to tell you that as much as they want to continue to ride the gravy train, the candidate is done and even if he decided to keep going, his voters have already left him.

But no, no... he is getting out.

[mbraynard]

Wager you $1.

[mbraynard]

You win the thread! Nicely done.

[mbraynard]

I’d like to see them on the ticket together.

[TennTuxedo]

I have voted for Fred here in Tennessee and have supported him thus far. The unfortunate reality is that Fred is not going to turn it around and win at this point. To continue to hold out hope and wait for Fred is not enough to win and it will only allow John McCain to pull away with the nomination.

Sorry, but I can't stand for that and neither can fellow conservatives. I am now putting my support behind Mitt Romney. You have to do that which is right for the nation at this point in time.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Among terrorists Paul is all alone on top with 99.99% support.

"You really are a funny guy!"

[mbraynard]

A mother is to be left.

If he was seriously still running, I think his mom would understand he is trying to save the free world and that he needs to be in the fight.

[mbraynard]

Maybe you can give this article to your mum.

[Salvation]

My predictions for Florida:

McCain
Giuliani
Romney
Huckabee
Thompson

[rep-always]

I feel the same way. I was with Thompson all the way. It appears he is done. Therefore, I will be voting Romney.

[rep-always]

I agree with. How the heck can any conservative vote for McCain is beyond me. My candidate has always been Fred Thompson but I do not believe he will get anywhere close to the nomination at this point. Therefore, I will be voting Romney.

[rep-always]

You are right on the money.

[billmor]

‘As for Huckabee, I predict he will be in it until the convention. He’s going after the VP slot, I suspect. The question is whether he will throw his delegates to McCain in order to get the VP slot. I would not be surprised.’

Amazing..if Rudy loses Fla he becomes a non-factor; ditto for poor Fred if he loses or drops out; if Huckabee drops out and throws his support to McCain, they both become losers...that leaves Romney in the drivers seat and he will pick his own VP. He will also pummel the dimRATS to pieces because he is one sharp pro...and a proven winner and executive...