Huckabee sees Texas as potentially pivotal in GOP contest

Houston Chronicle ^ | Jan. 20, 2008 | By R.G. RATCLIFFE

[jdm]

NAVASOTA — Freshly bruised from a second-place finish in the South Carolina Republican primary, presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee told a gathering of Texas financial supporters Sunday that the GOP nomination may come down to the Lone Star State on March 4.

"By the time we get through Feb. 5, there still will not be a decisive winner," said Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. "I'm having to reach down deep and swallow my Arkansas pride, and it is taking everything in me to be able to say this, but, folks, Texas may just have to save this Arkansas boy and put us over the top in March of this year."

With the odds increasing that neither political party will have a clear nominee after Feb. 5, Texas could end up a major player in the contest, despite the Legislature's decision not to move up the primaries to join the multi-state contest.

Huckabee's Sunday fundraiser and rally at the Lone Wolf Ranch of martial arts action star Chuck Norris was the first major presidential event for either party in the state since Jan. 1.

There has been very little political activity in Texas so far because so many delegates are at stake in other early primary states.

Huckabee had been counting on a first-place finish in South Carolina on Saturday because the state has a large social conservative community that forms his base. U.S. Sen. John McCain came in first.

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney carried the Republican caucuses in Nevada, and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton prevailed in the state's Democratic caucuses. But supporters of candidates in both parties are beginning to believe no one will clinch the nomination before Texas.

Former Texas Land Commissioner Garry Mauro, a longtime friend and supporter of the Clintons, said the national news media might declare a winner before Texas, or some candidates will concede. But no candidate, he said, will have a lock on the nomination by the Texas primary.

"It's mathematically impossible," Mauro said. "Every candidate is going to have to contest Texas to squeeze every delegate out of it."

At present, Romney has 59 delegates; Huckabee, 38; and McCain, 33, according to The Associated Press. The Republican nominee needs 1,191 to win. On the Democratic side, Clinton has 236 delegates; U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, 136; and former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, 50, with 2,025 needed to win.

At stake in Texas are 228 Democratic delegates apportioned on the election breakdown in their state senatorial districts. The Republicans will award 140 delegates with most of those based on results by congressional district.

Houston lawyer Patrick Oxford, a national co-chairman for Republican Rudy Giuliani, said the mixed results of the early primaries have helped Giuliani because the campaign always downplayed the early contests to focus on the Jan. 29 Florida winner-take-all primary and the Feb. 5 primaries, which have 1,462 delegates at stake.

"I don't think it is any secret that chaos is our friend," Oxford said.

At the same time, the bouncing victories make it unlikely the other candidates will drop out, even if Giuliani emerges as the clear front-runner, he said.

None of the campaigns have much in the way of paid staff in Texas.

"Clearly, the Clinton campaign has an advantage in creating an infrastructure overnight," said state Rep. Mark Strama, D-Austin, an Obama supporter. "They've done this before and they've got a network of past supporters."

Strama said dedicated volunteers with Texans for Obama have been working since 2006. He said many of them have worked on political campaigns in the past.

Ian Davis, one of the organizers, said part of the effort has been dedicated to having 20 percent of all students on college campuses pledged to Obama by election day. He said the San Antonio operation has 400 volunteers, some of whom went to Iowa to campaign.

"If this nomination comes down to Texas, then we're ready to go," Davis said. "We can mobilize the entire state at a moment's notice."

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Lake Jackson, also has a small army of volunteers. Hundreds tried to vote in a state Republican straw poll last summer, but were turned away because they had not previously voted in a GOP primary.

Oxford said Giuliani can organize Texas quickly by tapping into the campaigns of his top Texas political supporters: Gov. Rick Perry, Comptroller Susan Combs and Railroad Commission Chairman Michael Williams.

"You have to take advantage of their organization quickly to have a ground game," Oxford said. "Texas is a big state. Any type of media campaign even by then probably will be too expensive for everybody."

Kelly Shackelford of the Liberty Legal Institute said having Perry's endorsement will not help Giuliani because Huckabee will have the support of social conservatives who oppose abortion and support home schooling.

Shackelford said that even if Perry were to give his political supporter lists to Giuliani, "if you get them out to vote they will just vote for Huckabee." He added the "establishment doesn't have campaign structure. Let's see if they can crush one grass-roots guy."

Social conservatives make up an estimated 35 percent to 40 percent of the Texas Republican primary vote. And they have an extensive e-mail network through church leaders and conservative organizations.

Oxford said he believes that enthusiasm will dampen after Feb. 5 if Republican voters see Giuliani as the candidate who can defeat the Democratic nominee in the November general election.

"I wouldn't be dismissive at all of the social conservative network, but we'll see if they will be kamikazes for Huckabee," Oxford said. "I don't know that they will be."

[Richard Kimball]

Oxford said Giuliani can organize Texas quickly by tapping into the campaigns of his top Texas political supporters: Gov. Rick Perry, Comptroller Susan Combs and Railroad Commission Chairman Michael Williams.

Rick Perry is one of the most hated people in Texas right now. He might single-handedly turn the state blue.

[coramdeo]

The Huckabee campaign appears to be in meltdown, and with good reason. If Huckabee can’t win South Carolina, he probably can’t win anywhere. This idea that Fred split his vote is ridiculous - no Thompson supporter is going to switch to Huckabee. Fact is, there is now no possible scenario for Huckabee to win, and for a man with his ego this is heartbreaking.

If Huckabee was a gentlemen, he would announce tomorrow that he is dropping out so that a Republican can be the Republican candidate.

[nhoward14]

My vote in Texas is going to Fred Thompson whether he still wants it by then or not. I PAID for this vote, Mr. Huckabee!

[PAR35]

The Texas country club republicans bet on Rudy early. Sessions needs to be added to the list given in the story of Perry, Combs, and Williams. Rudy’s firm has been involved in Perry’s Nafta corridor plan, so money has been flowing in all directions.

At this point, however, I’m not sure anyone should want Perry’s endorsement.

[PAR35]

My vote in Texas is going to Fred Thompson whether he still wants it by then or not.

I'm not throwing my vote away when Rudy still needs to be stopped. If Fred is gone, and at this point I expect him to be, I'll vote for whoever looks the strongest against Rudy. If Fred's still running a serious campaign, I'll vote for him.

[manic4organic]

Go pound sand, Huck. The three Texan voters in my house will never for for your libtard self.

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

Rudolph William Louis Giuliani
Michael Dale Huckabee
John Sidney McCain III
Willard Mitt Romney

The four above are all liars and frauds!
They will say or do anything to get power!

[Sola Veritas]

“This idea that Fred split his vote is ridiculous - no Thompson supporter is going to switch to Huckabee.”

Out there, outside of FR Thompson supporters, Huckabee is correct about Thompson splitting the vote among evangelicals - I guess as a prebs you don’t like Baptists and don’t understand most evangelicals.

Thompson is the one that said S.C. was a “line in the sand.” If anyone should be a “gentleman” and exit it is Thompson. He cannot win now. Huckabee does indeed still have a chance, but Fred is just acting as a spoiler now.

[Cicero]

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More at: http://www.ediets.com/news/article.cfm/cmi_518465/cid_7

[nckerr]

Fred will drop out soon and Huck will gain at least half of his support. That will put him ahaed of McAmnesty and Flip Romney.

[matthew fuller]

The Huckmobile will be out of gas way before it comes close to TX.

[COgamer]

“Texans for Obama have been working since 2006”

But how is this possible? Obama swore - *swore* - that he decided to run for president right before New Years 2007.

[seekthetruth]

I am sure Fred needs funds to get ads out in Florida. The donations for the past two hours (9:00-11:00PM) was $620. Not bad considering the play-off game and the red truck donation link not on the home page of Fred’s site. We will know more tomorrow but Fred is still in this race and will do well in Florida following the debate Thursday! GO FRED!
https://www.fred08.com/Contribute.aspx?CampaignID=redpickup

[coramdeo]

Out there, outside of FR Thompson supporters, Huckabee is correct about Thompson splitting the vote among evangelicals - I guess as a prebs you don’t like Baptists and don’t understand most evangelicals.

Let me get this straight - because I don't support Huckabee and give you an honest explanation of why I don't think evangelical Fred supporters will support Huckabee, you accuse me of not liking Baptists and not understanding evangelicals? Keep this up and it will get harder for you to convince people that you Huckabee supporters are the super-Christians.

I know Huckabee supporters don't have a sense of humor, and its too bad because anyone who knows me would be rolling on the floor laughing at your post.

[CowboyJay]

"I'm having to reach down deep and swallow my Arkansas pride, and it is taking everything in me to be able to say this, but, folks, Texas may just have to save this Arkansas boy and put us over the top in March of this year."

Reminds me more of Clinton every day.

[coramdeo]

Fred will drop out soon and Huck will gain at least half of his support. That will put him ahaed of McAmnesty and Flip Romney.

I salute anyone who is serving our country, sir, but I am very involved with the evangelical community supporting Fred and the truth is almost none will support Huckabee. The things that attract evangelicals to Thompson are polar opposites to Huckabee's campaign. We are all very well aware of Huckabee's extreme dirty campaigning in South Carolina and that merely cements the conviction that anyone or no one is vastly preferable to Huckabee.

[patch789]

I despise one-issue candidates like Huckabee.
They are going to destroy the GOP.

[nckerr]

I salute anyone who is serving our country, sir, but I am very involved with the evangelical community supporting Fred and the truth is almost none will support Huckabee.

Thanks for your polite response. Not too much of civil debate on FR anymore. I too am a Jesus Freak and everyone in my circle is supporting Huck or Fred. Most have indicated that they will support Huck if Fred were to drop out. I do consider you a brother in Christ. GOd Bless!