Posted on 01/20/2008 5:16:22 PM PST by AmericanInTokyo
Republican gridlock rekindles talk of third-party candidate
WASHINGTON BUREAU
WASHINGTON – Talk of a protracted nomination race or a brokered convention may excite political junkies and horse race aficionados, but it masks a grim reality for the U.S. Republican party.
Three different winners in three presidential contests now provide evidence for what has been long suspected – the Republican coalition is fractured and there's no one to paste it back together.
GOP gridlock is already sparking talk of a search for a saviour and rekindling talk of a third party bid, talk that has been a mainstay of American political chatter for months but only gets louder as the Republicans dish out primary and caucus victories like they were party favours.
So, as the Gang of Five Republican presidential hopefuls heads to South Carolina for Saturday's primary, a lot of political observers are looking west, where New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the nation's most celebrated noncandidate is heading to delegate-rich states of Texas and California.
Texas is the earliest state to demand the requisite signatures to get a third-party candidate on the state ballot.
In California, Bloomberg meets with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who has remained above the presidential fray, but would be a coveted "get" for any Republican hopeful.
The billionaire mayor has issued a litany of nondenial denials over the past months, clearly enjoying the flirtation, but also, according to a number of published accounts, travelling the country and conducting polling to gauge his support.
A new draft-Bloomberg movement has been formed, even as Bloomberg said this week, "no matter how many times you ask the question, I am not the candidate."
Maybe it's just the silly season here because no Republican candidate has caught fire, and voters in successive states reject the previous state's winner, like children holding their nose and pushing away a plate of vegetables.
This clear lack of enthusiasm is leading to various movements to lure former House speaker Newt Gingrich into the GOP race or get CNN host Lou Dobbs to declare an independent candidacy.
As they head to South Carolina, a state proud of having picked the ultimate Republican nominee in every contest since 1980, it is easier to list the various liabilities of the candidates than it is to predict who will eventually emerge.
John McCain? The truth-telling, straight shooter may have told too many truths to a party base that refuses to warm to him and views his positions on immigration, interrogation methods and campaign financing with suspicion.
Mike Huckabee? There may not be enough churches in which to campaign in when the big Super Tuesday states weigh in Feb. 5 and the glass slipper should fall off a candidate who often appears to be running against party elders on foreign policy and economic issues.
Mitt Romney? He can only be a native son once and his victory in Michigan, where he pitched bromides about bringing a once-proud state back to its former glory, reinforces a perception that he will say anything to get elected.
Fred Thompson? He set the campaign alarm clock way too late in the day and snored through a phase in which he could have seized the moment.
Rudy Giuliani? While pundits start talking about his late-state strategy bearing fruit, it ignores the fact he never established any conservative bona fides, carries way too much personal and business baggage and is trying to win the Super Bowl without taking the field during the season.
Tony Perkins of the powerful Family Research Council told members yesterday the party has to find someone who will build the "three-legged stool" that supports the conservative coalition.
In Iowa, Perkins said, a Huckabee win represented a triumph for the coalition's "social leg," while McCain's New Hampshire win meant the "defence leg" carried the day.
When Romney won Michigan on a message of economic hope, the three legged-stool was complete with the win for the "economic leg," Perkins said.
Except the three-legged stool has been represented by three different candidates and, Perkins said, it is up to the candidates to now rally around all themes.
He offered this rather tortured metaphor as the race goes forward: "The GOP electorate is asking its leaders to reassemble the stool, plant it firmly in the cockpit of the party, and get the plane fast down the runway and off the ground."
And his message to Giuliani?
"The tailwinds have passed you by, and the party you want to lead is moving on. The race is not wide open."
But unless Republicans can coalesce around a winner, Democrats and the U.S. will be immersed in the story of the first female or first black presidential candidate while the GOP is still stuck in traffic.
John McCain? The truth-telling, straight shooter may have told too many truths to a party base that refuses to warm to him and views his positions on immigration, interrogation methods and campaign financing with suspicion.
Mike Huckabee? There may not be enough churches in which to campaign in when the big Super Tuesday states weigh in Feb. 5 and the glass slipper should fall off a candidate who often appears to be running against party elders on foreign policy and economic issues.
Mitt Romney? He can only be a native son once and his victory in Michigan, where he pitched bromides about bringing a once-proud state back to its former glory, reinforces a perception that he will say anything to get elected.
Fred Thompson? He set the campaign alarm clock way too late in the day and snored through a phase in which he could have seized the moment.
Rudy Giuliani? While pundits start talking about his late-state strategy bearing fruit, it ignores the fact he never established any conservative bona fides, carries way too much personal and business baggage and is trying to win the Super Bowl without taking the field during the season.
We have not had a Ronald Reagan conservative at the head of the GOP ticket since 1984, so that makes it coming up on 24 years.
If we can be that patient, we can wait another 24 years I figure. I know the RINOs will keep their promises since they keep asking for us to shut up and get with the program--and we have been fairly cooperative until now.
Look on the bright side, at least by 2024 we might be able to get a Conservative back on the top of the ticket. It's worth a shot.
MSM fantasy orgsams about socialists winning in 2008.
“he’s not able to win a primary in the South”
If you take all the Thompson voters, plus the McCain and Huckabee voters who like Thompson’s position best but didn’t vote for him only because they succumbed to media propaganda that Thompson “can’t win,” then you have a majority base of support for Thompson.
Thompson is the ONLY candidate that supports all 3 legs.
McCain - Defense and Social
Romney - Defense and Economic
Guiliani - Defense and Economic
Huckabee - Social
Explains why Thompson is the ONLY one I support, and why Huckabee is the ONLY one I will never vote for.
Buffoonery or at least foolishness or maybe better described as fatuousness is the entire system of analyzing these races at this point by the press. Too many people all across our land have not yet voted!
The Presidency of the United States is a big deal. Do these press people really think that the candidates hop in and spend great personal and financial capital just to hop out when one of them spouts they’re over!
Are we really not a grander nation than this not to take these candidates (the good ones) and the election more seriously? (Don’t answer that!)
In other words, it’s not that Fred didn’t win. The media stole victory from him.
So this was written on January 18th, last Friday. And Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul are not even mentioned. But I should consider a third party candidate, rich New Yorker Bloomberg? My choices are running to Bad, Worse and Ugly.
“That’s the thing. I love Fred to death, but if he’s not able to win a primary in the South,”
Fred did come in third in SC. McCain and Huckabee came in with the help of liberals and independents. Now they face just registered Republicans in Florida and they will be out soon. Did Rudy win anything yet? No, and he does not have Florida yet! This race will be between Fred, Mitt, and Rudy. The debate Thursday will only help Fred! I am still with Fred!
Thompson (everybody's second choice) as President.
Romney as VP or Secretary of Treasury of Commerce.
McCain as Secretary of Defense.
Guilani as Attorney General.
Huckabee as Surgeon General. If he's Secretary of HHS, he'll give away the store to illegal aliens.
Duncan Hunter or Tom Tancredo as Secretary of Homeland Security.
I know - it's insanely frustrating.
Good points. I thought it was an interesting article, from Canadian perspective.
Here we go! I was wondering when this crapola would start.
Yes, by all means, let’s take an already bad situation with a pile of candidates that we can’t support or weed out and do the absolute worst thing possible and split it up more with a 3rd party candidate.
Yes, I’m sure the MSM will be loving this idea and will be falling all over themsleves to push someone into the limelight. What could be better for the Democrats than to add yet ANOTHER contender into the mix to divide us even more? Great idea!!!
Please God, let this idea just die right now.
You can look at it half empty or half full. Clinton got it because just enough conservatives went the Perot route. Or Clinton got it because not enough conservatives went the Perot route.
Six of one, half dozen of the other.
Stopped Reading Here.
I say unto thee:
Amen
I too would like to see Bloomberg in the race. In fact, I would like to see a really good four way race. Conservative (I) vs. Rebublican (D) vs. Democrat (D) vs. Leftist/Quacks (I). I think the Conservatives could eek out a victory with this dynamic. The Conservatives for example would be the only ones solidly for US border security and that would resonate with tens of millions of voters.
I support Thompson until they stick a fork in him; if that happens I will vote with a clothes pin clamped to my nose.
I think the author made some good points about the situation in the republican Party, but he missed the boat thinking that Bloomers would draw any support from the party as a third Party candidate. I think Bloomy would draw more from the moderates in the Dem party that are fed up with the far left foodfight over there.
That is not to say that a lot of Republicans may go Third party or sit out, depending on who the nominee is. I think that is a distinct possibility. I have stated numerous times that Huckabee has destroyed any chance of getting my vote because of his idiotic foriegn policy statements and his underhanded dirty campaign.
I personally will NEVER vote for McCain. I could be talked into voting for Huck, but NEVER McCain. I’ll let the republicans lose as will MANY millions of other conservatives before we vote for McCain.
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