Posted on 01/20/2008 6:57:25 AM PST by skully
Fred Thompson's distant third in last night's South Carolina primary, has me re-thinking my support. I say this with disappointment, " I don't think Fred can win the nomination". Part of me wants to support him to the bitter end. Another part feels that in doing so I may only be helping McCain or Huckabee; my least 2 favorite candidates. I live in a Super Tuesday state, and my vote may actually matter this cycle, so I want to use it wisely. The only other candidates who seems like they can stop McCain or Huckabee is Romney or Rudy. If McCain wins in Florida, then he's in good shape to be the nominee. Polling analysis, done before Nevada and South Carolina primary; has him in the lead in Florida at around 23% about a 2 point lead over Rudy whose at 21-22%. Romney is around 18%, Hucakabee 15%, Fred 7%, and Paul 5%. Florida is a winner take all state, so whoever wins will have solid delegate count. Romney has the most delegate at this point, counts vary from source to source, but I put him at 72 to McCain's 38. So a win from Romney in Florida would give him a solid lead going into Super Tuesday. A win by Rudy would knock McCain into 3rd in the delegate count. So my quandry is do I continue to support Fred, or put my support behind a candidate who has a better chance of stopping McCain. In the end I will vote for the GOP nominee regardless. This is only because the troops are deployed, and they don't deserve a Commander-In-Chief from the party that tried to lose the war for them. So the primary is where my vote counts the most, and I want to put the "best man possible" for the job on the ticket. Unfortunately it dosen't look like the "best man" for the job will be at the top of that ticket, but there's is another spot on that ticket. Hey it might be wishful thinking, but what's a Fredhead to do??
Yeah. The manb has changed on every darned issue. And he can't expand Gitmo without a war.
JimRob published an analysis of FReeper polls about where the candidates stand on various issues.
Candidate | Abortion/ Gay Rights | Open Borders/ Amnesty | Gun Control | Tax and Spend | Nanny Stater | Untrustworthy Spinner Flip flopper |
Campaign Finance Reform |
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Giuliani | X | X | X | - | - | X | X |
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Huckabee | - | X | - | X | X | X | W |
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Hunter | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
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McCain | W | X | W | W | W | X | X |
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Romney | X | X | W | W | X | X | X |
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Thompson | - | - | - | - | - | - | X |
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X = Candidate holds or has record of non-conservative position. W = Weak or mixed positions.
I modified Jim's summary, replacing space with 0, W with 1, and X with 2. The higher the number, the more left-wing lib the candidate. I added a total column to his table.
Candidate | Abortion/ Gay Rights | Open Borders/ Amnesty | Gun Control | Tax and Spend | Nanny Stater | Untrustworthy Spinner Flip flopper |
Campaign Finance Reform | TOTAL |
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Giuliani | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
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Huckabee | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
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Hunter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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McCain | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
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Romney | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
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Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
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Romney comes out the most lib of the group. Hunter is (was) the most Conservative. Ron Paul wasn't included in the analysis.
MacCain will not be easy to stop. He has vast name recognition and the war hero thing going for him. That’s enough for many of the uninvolved ones that start paying attention the week of the primary.
Levin was promoting the idea that Huckabee is actually staying in at this point to split the vote, thus promoting McCain’s candidacy and Huckabee’s chances for the VP slot. At a convention their combined delegates would put them in charge.
Another thing that may or may not be happening is that much of the early vote in Florida might have already gone to Rudy! Florida has been voting for some time now.
We need to mobilize behind the best viable candidate, Mitt Romney, as soon as possible to stave off a looming disaster.
That's like saying, "We must jump into this volcano, as soon as possible, because there are tornado warnings."
You've answered your own question. They're Republicans, not conservatives.
LOL!
I think you are right to wait. Over at Blogs for Fred Thompson, they have discussed the historical facts that Reagan lost several primaries before he started winning, and what came to me last night, and I left at Fred08 was the trouble that Abraham Lincoln had in 1860.
Somebody over at “Blogs” echoed that same thing this morning.
Just don’t think you have to decide yet. I have never seen such coercion by the media. It is unreal and demonic, especially the Mocking that comes from Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough,(I don’t watch those creeps) and even Fred Barnes who makes me puke.
It is not too late for Fred, and it is too early to panic.
I know Fred said he had to do well in SC.
I don’t know what he is going to do.
It is just too early to throw in the towel.
I have been supporting him since before he ran, too.
Good to talk to you.
I knows she has bought into the whole “we must do something about global warming” thing.
>It should be clear to all here that we are just a small minority within the Republican party. You have a so called conservative state of South Carolina where two thirds of the primary vote went to McCain or the Huckster.<
Political junkies, aka Freepers, are a definite minority, sad to say. People are drawn to McCain, because he’s pushing the right buttons as far as the war on terrorism is concerned. The republican majority, those who lean conservative, but who don’t live and breathe politics is unaware of his liberal underbelly. They do not do research, and so are unaware of the danger of electing him. They listen to the mainstream media, and to soundbites.
I don’t know that much about Romney, but if Fred or Hunter are not viable alternatives, I am going to look long and hard at Mitt.
God help us all if we elect a man who was raised by radical muslims.
I’ve wondered that myself. If he does, I will respectfully decline his advice, and go with another candidate.
I greatly and yet sadly agree with your conclusion and if I don’t show up or write in Fred’s name anyway it will also be the first election in 40 years that I haven’t voted.
Truer words have not been spoken on this site. Most people on here speak as if they will only vote for a candidate who will build a wall across the border, overturn Roe v. Wade, and banish homosexual marriage in his first 100 days. There is no such candidate. There was a GOP pres and congress for 6 years and they couldn't get any of these done. Now you expect a gop pres with a dem congress to?
But, for now I just want to paraphrase what I posted yesterday about Fred's showing:
He was off the radar and written off, then had 3% then about 5, by Friday he was allowed 11% and he scored 17....it may not be a surge and I'd hoped for more from South Carolina but it's a steady climb and the big states are yet to come.
Third place isn't a finish you quit from - this should be where he retools his campaign and where he should start to force his message out to where people actually see it.
PS: I note this morning that even Fox finds it impossible to include Fred in their 'analysis', a third place didn't earn him listing on their poll graphics..but right now they are talking about Rudy's slip into fourth.
It was a GOP President and GOP houses....not Conservative.
Golly gee, I guess we're stuck with Romney now. /sarc
I am guessing it is the illegal voting block that is pushing this RINO through. I can’t decided to vote against Hillary or stay home that day now. Apparently word is saying it is the ‘independent vote’ he is sweeping up. I am guessing It is probably the illegal vote wanting to get that McKennedy shamenesty bill passed. He is probably their hero now. Too bad more states don’t require ID to vote. But fake ID’s are easy to get - but at least it would make it a little harder for them to vote more than 5 times each.
The tracer rounds have gone by and some people want to yell we've lost.
I think you are on to something. I just can’t believe, in my heart of hearts, that the republican party is coming out and voting for the screwballs in any appreciable numbers. It could be we are victims of the media, but I hope we are smarter and what we are seeing is a concerted effort to throw the republican primaries.
I am really disappointed to see the threads on FR trying to destroy the Fred supporters. Amazing the aggressiveness going on.
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