Fred's Final Days

Reason Magazine ^ | January 18, 2008 | John Tabin

[SubGeniusX]

Barring a miracle, South Carolina will bury the last libertarian-leaning candidate of '08

COLUMBIA, SC—One by one, the great libertarian hopes of the 2008 presidential cycle have been dashed.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson was touted—some might say over-hyped—as an example of a Western "libertarian Democrat" for his friendliness to gun rights, for signing a medical marijuana law, and for a tax-cutting record that earned him a B on the Cato Institute's Fiscal Policy Report Card. He dropped out of the race after failing to break the six percent mark in Iowa or New Hampshire. At his final debate appearance in New Hampshire, the Clinton-Obama-Edwards triumvirate hardly seemed to notice him.

While few thought Congressman Ron Paul, the one-time Libertarian Party candidate and anti-war Republican, would be a viable contender for the presidency, lots of people thought that he might at least raise the profile of libertarian ideas. Now his history of associating with the uglier side of the paleolibertarian movement has come back to haunt him, and many once-sympathetic observers are wondering if his campaign might actually be bad for libertarianism.

That leaves former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson. For a while, during his endless flirtation with the GOP race, Thompson looked to some people like the Great Libertarian Hope. The Cato Institute's Michael Tanner praised Thompson last May for "a solid record as a fiscal conservative," adding that in the Senate he was "a consistent supporter of entitlement reform" and a reliable vote for free trade. "On federalism," Tanner wrote, "there may be no better candidate."

Indeed, Thompson is the only major candidate who talks about the importance of federalism, which has helped earn him endorsements from an impressive roster of libertarian-leaning law professors, including Volokh Conspiracy blogger-profs Eugene Volokh, Jonathan Adler, Todd Zywicki, and Orin Kerr.

On the stump, Thompson likes to say that "a government big enough and powerful enough to give you anything is big enough and powerful enough to take anything away from you." He waxes on about how the principles this country was founded on include "respect for a market economy, and what can be done in a free country with free people doing free things in healthy competition with one another and trading with their neighbors."

Alas, Thompson has hardly taken the race by storm. Glenn Reynolds wrote last month that he might have joined Volokh et al. in endorsing Thompson if he hadn't observed how poorly Thompson's campaign is run behind the scenes. That poorly run campaign has yielded poor results. Thompson's low-key affect and introverted personality made him ill-suited to the hands-on retail politicking that Iowans expect, and he edged out John McCain for third place in the Iowa caucuses by just three tenths of a percentage point despite spending much more time than McCain stumping in the Hawkeye State (McCain focused on New Hampshire, where he won). He made almost no effort in the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries, where he got less than 2 percent and less than 4 percent of the vote, respectively.

Now Thompson is putting all of his hopes on a strong finish in South Carolina. "We have to be very successful [here]," Thompson spokesman Jeff Sadosky told me Wednesday. "He would say he has drawn his line in the sand in South Carolina. We've been down here for the last couple of weeks while everybody else was up in Michigan. We're campaigning heavily throughout the state. It's his neck of the woods." Does he have to finish second or better? "I'm not going to get into that," says Sadosky. "We're working hard, we're going to be successful. I'll let the pundits figure out where we need to be."

Very well, then: Thompson needs to finish second or better in South Carolina, or his campaign is over. There are signs that he's gaining steam; polls show a small uptick in support for Thompson over the past week, coming at Mike Huckabee's expense. But it's not at all clear that it'll be enough. In Orangeburg on Wednesday, at 6:30 in the evening, Thompson attracted a good-sized crowd. At 12:45 the next day, Mike Huckabee attracted an even bigger crowd in Florence.

Huckabee's mixture of nanny-statism, populist economic rhetoric, and social conservatism makes him a libertarian's nightmare, and anything that trips him up is to be welcomed. But if Thompson really is dragging down Huckabee, the biggest beneficiary is McCain, who is either leading or tied with Huckabee in every poll this week. A libertarian journalist could fill a book with things that are troubling about John McCain, and reason editor Matt Welch has done so.

Perhaps something will change the dynamics of the race in the remaining hours before South Carolina Republicans go to the polls tomorrow, and Thompson will catch a break. But at the moment, his prospects don't appear to give fans of smaller government any reason to abandon the pessimism that has by now become all too familiar.

John Tabin is a writer and blogger for The American Spectator.

[SubGeniusX]

......

[Vigilanteman]

Fred doesn’t have to win South Carolina, he just has to make a respectable showing. He’s everybody’s second choice and could turn out to be their first choice if we have a brokered convention.

[SubGeniusX]

One by one, the great libertarian hopes of the 2008 presidential cycle have been dashed....

That leaves former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson. For a while, during his endless flirtation with the GOP race, Thompson looked to some people like the Great Libertarian Hope. The Cato Institute's Michael Tanner praised Thompson last May for "a solid record as a fiscal conservative," adding that in the Senate he was "a consistent supporter of entitlement reform" and a reliable vote for free trade. "On federalism," Tanner wrote, "there may be no better candidate."

Libertarian ping! To be added or removed from my ping list freepmail me or post a message here.

[Anti-Bubba182]

"..Now his history of associating with the uglier side of the paleolibertarian movement has come back to haunt him, and many once-sympathetic observers are wondering if his campaign might actually be bad for libertarianism..."

Duh! Why don't these screwballs/libertarians beam up to the mothership.

[RadioCirca1970]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1956004/posts

Heads Up Michael Reagan opens the phones for Fred Supporters..

[DesScorp]

I fear America’s choices in this election will be McCain and Clinton.....definitely a “lesser of two evils” election.

[tear gas]

Fred doesn’t have to win South Carolina, he just has to make a respectable showing. He’s everybody’s second choice and could turn out to be their first choice if we have a brokered convention.

Right on, brother! We're going all the way.

[Lucky9teen]

Some may write Fred off, but if it comes down to it, I’ll write him in.

[DoughtyOne]

The nomination is very much up for grabs at this point. Nobody is walking away with it. To state that this is the end of Fred is wishing thinking IMO.

Someone is trying to lower the bar on Fred getting out, and doing it before another election in the hopes of damaging him beyond recovery.

I also think it was interesting to use the term libertarian in this article, a word that some have grown to look upon with intrepidation.

Fred Thompson is running on the republican ticket, and that’s the only party that should be mentioned in relationship to him.

[DoughtyOne]

Oh that wouldn’t be a hard choice at all.

Neither of the above would be an easy choice.

[Tarpon]

Fred will still be in the race come super duper Tuesday.

BTW, when is McCain withdrawing? He doesn’t have a prayer, neither does the Huckster, of winning anything except the drive by stooge of the year award.

[Eric Blair 2084]

I find it funny that Bill Richardson is considered a “libertarian” candidate by Reason (not the first time I heard that from them) considering he signed the smoker ban preventing citizens from enjoying a legal product on private property.

Although I guess for a Democrat, he’s a libertarian....sort of like being the World’s Tallest Midget.

[Eric Blair 2084]

The sheeple have spoken, this freedom stuff requires too much work and individual responsibility. They would rather be wards of the state and have Gubmint take care of them from cradle to grave like babies and nursing home patients. They want CHANGE.

[Mr Rogers]

That either Huckabee or McCain could be polling above 10% is amazing - and dismaying. I’ll be thrilled if Fred pulls it out, but I’m very worried right now.

I really think that 4 of the top 5 will lose such a large part of the base that we will be history in the general.

[saganite]

That’s a pretty downbeat assesment. I’m hoping Fred can confound the polls but time is very short.

[DeusExMachina05]

Campaigns end when they run out of money. Unless Fred comes in first or second his campaign will not have the money to carry on. Thats a fact unfortunately.

[snippy_about_it]

This is not true, Fred has the money to continue and he will. Just you watch us!

[Theo]

It’s not over. Fred’s the best candidate, and as more people become aware of this, his ratings will go even higher. I’m voting for him, and encourage others to as well. Let’s not fall for this “losing hope” bit....

[ken21]

reason mag’s going bolshevik.

richardson is NOT a libertarian.

richardson vetoed the gas developments in new mexico.