Posted on 01/18/2008 7:21:07 AM PST by Rumierules
Romney's win in Michigan keeps his candidacy alive - but what are the odds that he will win the nomination? I'm not sure, but they are much reduced from what they were six months ago.
Early last year, the Romney campaign put together a plan that - if it panned out - would probably have won him the nomination. The idea was for Romney to build a huge war chest that would enable him to compete everywhere. He would then win Iowa and New Hampshire, emerge as the consensus Republican candidate, and overwhelm the rest of the field.
But the plan backfired. Romney lost Iowa, and then he lost New Hampshire. Accordingly, he is not the consensus candidate of the party. Far from it. While he has a toehold in the GOP electorate, that's all he has. The recent Pew poll offers cross-tabs that tell the story in vivid detail. Even though the poll was completed before the Michigan primary, there is still a good bit to learn from it:
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Romney has the highest negative ratings after his lies and attacks and sleazy campaign alienated the other candidates and many of their supporters.
They forgot one thing when devising their foolproof plan - a candidate trustworthy enough to earn votes.
Depressing article.
I’m amused daily by these columns.
From ‘Romney will withdraw!’ to ‘Romney’s in trouble!’ to ‘Can Romney catch on?” its one laugher after another, in context.
The guy is leading in delegates. He’s leading in total number of votes cast overall compared to his competitors. He’s flush with cash, and competitive in every state where a GOP primary is scheduled.
He’s ‘caught on’ already, in short.
Can he win the nomination? We’ll see, but if everybody running was honest, they’d admit he’s in a very good position today.
I hope not...Fred or nobody!
Can Mitt catch on?
Let’s hope not.
He's probably some what better than McCain, a lot better than the Huckster, and Judy is on his way out. But that said I will not vote for either one.
See tagline. Romney’s got real negatives and nothing can make them go away.
BTTT — like your tagline!
‘He’s probably some what better than McCain, a lot better than the Huckster, and Judy is on his way out. But that said I will not vote for either one.’
Somewhat better than McCain?
Republicans won’t vote for McCain in significant numbers, as we’ve seen previously, and saw in the few primaries that were ‘GOP only’.
McCain’s Waterloo is South Carolina, just as it was in 2000.
Romney has double the delegates, of his closest rival.
The question is, should the other candidates drop out?
Romney has double the delegates, of his closest rival.
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The percentage of total delegates Mitt has at this point compared to what is needed to win the nomination is tiny. Also, McCain has the national polling advantage which becomes far more important now that retail compaigning is giving way to wholesale campaigning.
I think Mitt would far and away, be the most formidable candidate against any of the Democrats. In fact, I sense some of the same deliberate avoidance of his candidacy, Duncan Hunter is receiving. Probably for the same reasons.
That said, I want Duncan Hunter to win.
Perhaps we can somehow, get the two to work together.
The big problem politically that Romney has in winning the general is high negatives. I dislike Romney, for disclosures sake, but analytically and being as objective as I can be, Romney has proven himself stellar in terms of fundraising and organizing his campaign. The flip side of that is that with the most money in the field and the best organized campaign, he has been rejected by the voters in states even where he outspent and out-organized his rivals.
This guy is saying a poll based on Mitt only losing (before Michigan) is worth considering? How do people this dumb get a job anywhere writing about politics?
Not a chance. In a time before YouTube, perhaps. But his radical liberals support of planned parenthood and gay scoutmasters wont play with the Christian right.
There is no way for him to keep video of his past radical left pandering out of the public eye, and the Christian right, and the hard conservative right (including me) will not vote for him no mater what conversions he now claims to have made. He has already defeated himself, and the nasty "Fred is dropping out" thing hasn't worked in his favor either.
I didn’t say, against any of the Republicans.
Fact is however, Mitt is the John Kennedy running against the Richard Nixon in “the debate”.
He’s going to generate a lot of support, simply by being photogenic and I’ve seen a number of Republican women right here on FR, say they’d like to vote for him just for that reason.
He’ll take Hillery’s women’s vote, if she’s the dem nominee. If Osama-bama is the nominee, his own religious ambiguity is certainly far, far more “unusual” to voters, than Romney’s faith.
I think Mitt is the dem-slayer. I really do.
Now, if we can just get him, and Duncan Hunter working together somehow...
Sometimes I wonder if choosing Rudy McRomnabee over Breck Rodham Obama will not only prolong but also deepen the agony before we finally see a conservative revolt.
I know, "they" are conspiring against Fred.
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