Posted on 01/10/2008 12:35:30 PM PST by neverdem
THE failure of the New Hampshire pre-election surveys to mirror the outcome of the Democratic race is one of the most significant miscues in modern polling history. All the published polls, including...
--snip--
To my mind all these factors deserve further study. But another possible explanation cannot be ignored the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.
In exploring this factor, it is useful to look closely at the nature of the constituencies for the two candidates in New Hampshire, which were divided along socio-economic lines.
Mrs. Clinton beat Mr. Obama by 12 points (47 percent to 35 percent) among those with family incomes below $50,000. By contrast, Mr. Obama beat Mrs. Clinton by five points (40 percent to 35 percent) among those earning more than $50,000.
There was an education gap, too. College graduates voted for Mr. Obama 39 percent to 34 percent; Mrs. Clinton won among those who had never attended college, 43 percent to 35 percent.
Of course these are not the only patterns in Mrs. Clintons support in New Hampshire. Women rallied to her (something they did not do in Iowa), while men leaned to Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton also got stronger support from older voters, while Mr. Obama pulled in more support among younger voters. But gender and age patterns tend not to be as confounding to pollsters as race, which to my mind was a key reason the polls got New Hampshire so wrong.
Poorer, less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent, better-educated whites. Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency. But heres the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Probably a huge number of postal employees in NY, MA, VT and ME called in sick on NH’s primary election day.
Anyone who has ever followed Democratic primaries in any city will tell you the voters almost always break along racial lines...
Thanks Kenny. Donna getting beaten... oh to the punch. You had me going for a minute there. LOL
I like how you tied Brazil to a competition between her and the Clintons. That’s kinda funny.
It doesn't take a lot to tip a primary. As Donna Brazile, former Clinton fanatic says, "Just get me close baby, I'll do the rest."
It doesn't take a lot to tip a primary. As Donna Brazile, former Clinton fanatic says, "Just get me close baby, I'll do the rest."
What are the Kos kooks saying about this? Maybe I’ll visit and see. I remember when Leiberman was being kicked out of the Dem party—
Yeah, all those cars with Mass plates were just “observing” in Portsmouth and Hampton.../sarc
We really need to get rid of same-day registration.
It will be interesting to watch.
Exactly right. Independent crossovers are also irrational and moter voter is another area of conern.
Democrat Dennis Kucinich, who won less than 2 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, said Thursday he wants a recount to ensure that all ballots in his party's contest were counted. The Ohio congressman cited "serious and credible reports, allegations and rumors" about the integrity of Tuesday results.
Deputy Secretary of State David Scanlan said Kucinich is entitled to a statewide recount. But, under New Hampshire law, Kucinich will have to pay for it. Scanlan said he had "every confidence" the results are accurate.
In a letter dated Thursday, Kucinich said he does not expect significant changes in his vote total, but wants assurance that "100 percent of the voters had 100 percent of their votes counted."
Kucinich alluded to online reports alleging disparities around the state between hand-counted ballots, which tended to favor Sen. Barack Obama, and machine-counted ones that tended to favor Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. He also noted the difference between pre-election polls, which indicated Obama would win, and Clinton's triumph by a 39 percent to 37 percent margin.
Candidates who lose by 3 percentage or less are entitled to a recount for a $2,000 fee. Candidates who lose by more must pay for the full cost. Kucinich's campaign said it was sending the $2,000 fee to start the recount.
Scanlon said his office had received several phone calls since Tuesday, mostly from outside the state, questioning the results. New Hampshire's voting machines are not linked in any way, which Scanlon says reduce the likelihood of tampering with results on a statewide level. Also, the results can be checked against paper ballots.
"I think people from out of state don't completely understand how our process works and they compare it to the system that might exist in Florida or Ohio, where they have had serious problems," he said. "Perhaps the best thing that could happen for us is to have a recount to show the people that ... the votes that were cast on election day were accurately reflected in the results. And I have every confidence that will be the case."
So happy to see we aren't the only suspicious folks around here.
Me too.
While this does sound somewhat good, what about the same day registrations? There’s your problem IMO.
They should verify the addresses of about five precincts’ same day registrations. See if they are valid. If not, expand the verification of all the same day registrations. Document who those votes went to. Track who drove that effort.
If this is done, I’ll be content. If it isn’t done, the vote will always be a question in my mind.
This is exactly what makes the flying squad concept work. Remember, it's a primary. 500 votes can swing it either way. With same day registration legal, the state authorities can say "Move on, no fraud here."
In regard to the voters themselves, a candidate like Mrs. Clinton will show up with at least 100 paid workers, who tap into pre-palced state organizations: few hundred fake votes.... no problem.
Hope Kucinich protest lives on ... as former mayor of Cleveland, if anyone knows vote fraud it is surely he.
Thanks Kenny. Dennis may accidently do something positive for the nation. That would be nice.
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