Posted on 01/10/2008 9:01:27 AM PST by John Robie
January 10, 2008 2:59 AM EST Threat Assessment Regarding US Ships in the Persian Gulf
Last weekend’s incident involving Iranian fast boats and US naval ships underscores the volatile nature of the Persian Gulf. During the incident, a US naval convoy was approached by five fast boats operated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRG). The Iranian boats came within 200 meters of convoy and issued threats indicating that they were conducting a suicide attack of some sort. The Iranian boats then turned around and fled the area.
The incident occurred in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil supply is shipped. The strait is approximately 50 km wide, making it the narrowest point in the Persian Gulf. The strait functions as a choke point for one of the most important trade routes in the world. Previous intelligence reports indicate that Iran has plans to attack the US and allied naval ships along with private vessels in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran’s reason for doing so would be to prevent any US military action against their nuclear programs. The supposed attack plan would also possess an economic warfare component designed to cut off the regional oil trade, thus damaging America’s economy along with the global economy.
A plausible interpretation of last weekend’s incident is that it was some type of test run for the Iranian attack plan. The exact purposes of Iran’s actions remain unclear, but Strategic Intelligence Estimates.com believes the threatening maneuvers were possibly designed to accomplish some of these following purposes:
1) to conduct a dry run of a suicide bombing against US ships
2) to calibrate the reaction time and defensive techniques of the US Navy
3) to feint an attack in order to identify the specific maneuvers of the naval
(Excerpt) Read more at strategicintelligenceestimates.com ...
well heck you know the Navy had to contact Nancy and Harry to find out what to do!
Exactly what I find troublesome as well. What the heck? Nobody open fire on them - at all? Not even warning shots? Just stood there and took video of them? That's exactly how mass casualties happen!
Iran might close the strait?
We might close the strait. If we close it, or even merely slow up Iranian ship traffic through the strait, Iran’s economy will collapse in two weeks. They are completely dependent on exports through the strait for their national income, and completely dependent on imports for gasoline to run their trucks. Astonishingly, they do not produce gasoline sufficient to run their economy.
This is how the US Navy came into the Persian Gulf in the first place, during the Iran Iraq War they started harassing arab ship traffic, and we started escorting ships into and out of the Gulf. We did not close the strait to Iranian traffic, but if we did it the result would be catastrophic for Iran. We can close it to them, and maintain it open to everyone else.
I concur. I am curious as to who or what detected the speedboats. If it was visual as opposed to electronic then the Iranians might attempt this stunt at night.
Interesting in a "do these guys actually con people out of their money?" sort of way.
For example, this comment doesn't withstand even cursory scrutiny:
Previous intelligence reports indicate that Iran has plans to attack the US and allied naval ships along with private vessels in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran’s reason for doing so would be to prevent any US military action against their nuclear programs. The supposed attack plan would also possess an economic warfare component designed to cut off the regional oil trade, thus damaging America’s economy along with the global economy.
The obvious flaws being:
1. Attacking US and allied naval ships would not "prevent action" against any Iranian targets. Indeed, as an overt act of war it would provide the pretext for taking out all of Iran's capabilities, nuclear and otherwise. And anyway, the assets that would launch the attacks wouldn't be in the Straits of Hormuz in any case.
2. The threat of economic consequences would do nothing to halt a response to an overt act of war by Iran. And the economic consequences on Iran would be ruinous.
And so we come to this: "A plausible interpretation of last weekend’s incident is that it was some type of test run for the Iranian attack plan."
It's about as plausible as the previous assessment -- yeah, they could have been doing that, but there are much better explanations available, such as "sending a message to Bush while he's in Israel," or "hoping that the USN would provoke an incident by firing on the Iranians."
Their next move might even be a boat of innocents, rapidly approaching.
Nothing except win the confrontation. The USN's decision to hold their fire was the correct one. Iran now has no pretext for calling us irresponsible or trigger-happy, when and if they try this again and we do blast their boats.
They can deny using any weapons at all and teach the buggers a lesson at the same time.
Better still, since Iranian media says we fabricated the incident, they surely won’t object when we destroy some “file footage” next time.
Worse than doing nothing the Secretary of the Navy actually PRAISED them for the ineptitude. The commander of the group should have been reprimanded in order to dissuade further probes of our defenses.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to (have their citizens suffer and) repeat it."
George Santayana
Of course Iran is saying America is lying about the incident and is releasing their own video of what happened.
Here is the text of the audio portion of the new video:
“Hello American ships welcome to the fascinating Strait of Hormuz where 30 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. Welcome, welcome, welcome my friends. Can I trouble you to tell me your destination, so that our escort boats can lead your way safely through this narrow channel? May I offer you an itinerary of things to do during your stay in the beautiful Persian Gulf? We have a list of the most ideal luxury Persian Gulf hotels and 5 star resorts the Gulf has to offer, and this is all provided to you by Great Iran, the pearl of the Persian Gulf.”
How is it known that the guys were with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard?
Straight, Clarifying, Thinking
The best way to deal with a swarm is a little bug spray on the nest, at night, when they are all there.
They have taken over operations in the Gulf several years ago, and this is right up their playbook.
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