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On Poll Results and the End of Conservatism (Vanity)
Kevmo ^ | January 9, 2008 | Kevmo

Posted on 01/10/2008 1:11:53 AM PST by Kevmo

What value were polls other than anti-democratic?



The polls had it wrong over New Hampshire. And it was polls that were used to exclude Hunter from the New Hampshire debates, the same debates which proved that polls were wrong. But poll results are still valid for EXCLUDING candidates like Hunter, who actually had a DELEGATE that REAL VOTERs voted for, while Rudy had NONE, but look at his polls! Now the same travesty is happening in South Carolina.

For the Republican side, half right is more than half wrong when you’re relying on the data to exclude someone from the process of democracy. And if they were wrong, how do we know they were right on the republican side? The prevailing assumption should be that they need to PROVE their data is reliable, but by excluding a candidate that could have done well in that state if he had access to the media, they AFFECTED THE OUTCOME.

CONSERVATISM vs. REPUBLICANISM
I don’t see how anyone can defend this action when it affects a conservative. This is a conservative forum, not a GOP one. It’s not just the GOP that’s jumping the shark, they’re taking Free Republic with them. On the latest poll, "I’ll vote R regardless" is leading the pack. I call people who vote this way UIN republicans, because they’ll vote for anything with an R in front of it, regardless of what it means.

Free Republic’s (1/9) poll on Republican candidates’ liberal positions that would be deal killers
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=210;results=1

thread discussion
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1951136/posts



Free Republic used to be a gathering place for conservatives. Now it’s becoming a gathering place of republicans. Putting republicanism ahead of conservatism is the opposition to the aims of this website.

JimRob says, “We are conservative activists dedicated to defending our rights, defending our constitution, defending our republic and defending our traditional American way of life.” Freepers who are defending the fact that Hunter was excluded from the debates are in direct opposition to this tenet.



From the front page of Free Republic:

Statement by the founder of Free Republic As a conservative site, Free Republic is pro-God, pro-life, pro-family, pro-Constitution, pro-Bill of Rights, pro-gun, pro-limited government, pro-private property rights, pro-limited taxes, pro-capitalism, pro-national defense, pro-freedom, and-pro America. We oppose all forms of liberalism, socialism, fascism, pacifism, totalitarianism, anarchism, government enforced atheism, abortionism, feminism, homosexualism, racism, wacko environmentalism, judicial activism, etc. .... We are not connected to or funded by any political party, news agency, or any other entity. .... We aggressively defend our God-given and first amendment guaranteed rights to free speech, free press, free religion, and freedom of association, as well as our constitutional right to control the use and content of our own personal private property. Despite the wailing of the liberal trolls and other doom & gloom naysayers, we feel no compelling need to allow them a platform to promote their repugnant and obnoxious propaganda from our forum. Free Republic is not a liberal debating society. We are conservative activists dedicated to defending our rights, defending our constitution, defending our republic and defending our traditional American way of life.

This is NOT a GOP website, it says so right there, we have no affiliation with any party... That often catches republicans by surprise.

CHANCES OF WINNING

For those who don’t think we defend the country by voting for people who have next to zero chance of winning , they need to realize that THIS IS COMPLETE BALONEY. Right NOW, on Intrade, the folks who make it their business to deal in “chance of winning” and make money helping others trade on those chances have Hunter and Thompson EQUAL in chance to win the president race.

chances on intrade -- snapshot http://www.intrade.com

2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.4 0.2 41936 -0.1

2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.3 0.2 18051 +0.0

USING INTRADE RESULTS I know that many freepers do not view futures markets with as much confidence as I do. But many of those same freepers view Polls with confidence. The article below is but one example of how futures markets are more reliable than poll results.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Whenever I post results from Intrade, there’s often a back & forth about how this data isn’t reliable, it’s subject to manipulation, all that stuff. All of these items are discussed and explained on this thread.

Futures market data that has proven to be more reliable than polling data, which is why Rasmussen started using Intrade results on their website. Rasmussen is the first polling organization to start using and referencing futures market data. In particular, once you look at the data and the interface, you’ll realize that it’s just a frontpiece for Intrade.

“Our prediction market for Iowa turned out to be very accurate,” Rasmussen said.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1948537/posts?page=53#53

Rasmussen started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts

THE PRACTICAL RESULT

The practical result was a failure in our democracy and it DIRECTLY affected the most conservative man in the race for the GOP presidency. By defending the practice, such freepers are betraying that they are a republican first, conservative second. Usually, it’s because this travesty did not affect their candidate. That is not how conservatism is forwarded. But it IS how republicanism is forwarded.

Hunter, as a result of this cascaded failure of democratic process, is excluced from the South Carolina debate. Recall that Hunter had a statistical tie with Giuliani for the lead in the Spartanburg straw poll. But for the media, that doesn’t mean anything, poll results that they decide are important are the ones being used. Is this what the primary process was designed to do, this early in the game? NO!



Six candidates to participate in historic 2008 S.C. GOP Presidential Candidates Debate (No Hunter)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1950953/posts

Everyone on FR, anyone that calls themselves a conservative or an American should be outraged. But Free Republic has changed. It looks more each day like a de facto branch of the GOP. There will not be this outrage that once characterized Freepers, because this travesty favors their guy. One more nail in the coffin for conservatism, delivered and gift wrapped by the GOP.

If Thompson drops out, will he most likely endorse his friend McCain? If he does endorse McCain, how will Thompson followers feel? Do most freepers feel that such an endorsement would be a good thing or a bad thing? If such a thing as the exclusion from debates happened to your candidate, what would you expect from the GOP, as well as from Freepers? When you see that not taking place, would that change the way you view Free Republic, as a bastion of conservatism? If Hunter drops out, he’ll most likely endorse Fred. If Hunter drops, then Fred drops, we will all be pissed if the first scenario comes true, and there is no conservative in the race.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2008; duncanhunter; elections; hunter; politics
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To: ThePythonicCow
In any case, let's do what we can now to see that we have a better choice this November.

On that we can agree, I assure you.

221 posted on 01/10/2008 10:32:28 PM PST by roamer_1 (Vote for Frudy McRomsonbee -Turn red states purple in 08!)
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To: Vanbasten

ANY RIGHT MINDED CONSERVATIVE SHOULD UNDERSTAND THIS AND RESIST ACCORDINGLY!
***You’re an idiot. You’re posting directly in opposition to what the conservative founder of this website says, trying to redefine conservatism in your compromising, RINO image. That makes you someone with bad manners as well.

Accordingly doesn’t mean sitting out any election.
***Straw argument. Who’s talking about sitting it out? We’re talking about a straight 100% Republican ticket, so you should be happy. But on the top spot, the republican will be a writein if a RINO is nominated. In the battle of lost support, who wins? RINOs trying to browbeat socons into betraying their principles, or Socons trying to point out to RINOs that they said they’d vote for the guy anyways.


222 posted on 01/10/2008 10:35:20 PM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter won't "let some arrogant corporate media executive decide whether this campaign's over)
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To: ThePythonicCow

And may you find your own path as well. On your own thread.


223 posted on 01/10/2008 10:36:21 PM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter won't "let some arrogant corporate media executive decide whether this campaign's over)
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To: ThePythonicCow

if I wasn’t a bleeping coward, then I’d choose that too.
***There’s the problem right there.


224 posted on 01/10/2008 10:37:52 PM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter won't "let some arrogant corporate media executive decide whether this campaign's over)
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To: ThePythonicCow

On that, I absolutely agree. If we defeat the Left in this nation, then the Islamo-Fascists are a walk in the park. If the Left defeats us, the Left will then surrender to the ragheads, without even token resistance.
***You don’t get it. The enemies of conservatism are right here in our own party, the RINOs.


225 posted on 01/10/2008 10:41:23 PM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter won't "let some arrogant corporate media executive decide whether this campaign's over)
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To: Kevmo
The way I see it, Duncan Hunter gave $10,000.00 of his limited resources to help HIS party exclude him. ***Holy Shiite, Batman. That’s another reason not to vote for “whoever has an R in front of his name”.

It certainly is! Do you think Congressman Hunter could ask the GOP for his $10k to be returned, using the false advertising/lost leader rules?

226 posted on 01/10/2008 11:01:09 PM PST by Just A Nobody (PISSANT for President '08 - NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! Beware the ENEMEDIA)
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To: Kevmo
“All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”





Just a reminder for any late readers!

227 posted on 01/10/2008 11:04:11 PM PST by Just A Nobody (PISSANT for President '08 - NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! Beware the ENEMEDIA)
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To: Just A Nobody

Do you think Congressman Hunter could ask the GOP for his $10k to be returned, using the false advertising/lost leader rules?
***Maybe he’d pick up some press from it. But it has trouble written all over it.


228 posted on 01/10/2008 11:09:18 PM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter won't "let some arrogant corporate media executive decide whether this campaign's over)
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To: Kevmo
All of this is greeted by a yawn on Free Republic, the supposed bastion of conservatism and constitutionalism.

Yep! What is worse, IMHO, is the GOP appears to be doing the same.

Did I get that right?

Sounds right to me!

229 posted on 01/10/2008 11:34:37 PM PST by Just A Nobody (PISSANT for President '08 - NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! Beware the ENEMEDIA)
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To: Sun

Well.....if I have to be polite.....that could be a deal breaker. ;*)


230 posted on 01/10/2008 11:36:40 PM PST by Just A Nobody (PISSANT for President '08 - NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! Beware the ENEMEDIA)
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To: Kevmo
But it has trouble written all over it.

What do you mean? Trouble with the GOP? It seems like theft to me.

231 posted on 01/10/2008 11:38:16 PM PST by Just A Nobody (PISSANT for President '08 - NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! Beware the ENEMEDIA)
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To: Just A Nobody; Kevmo; Congressman Billybob; Duncan Hunter Ambassador; Calpernia; pissant

Sniff....sniff....smells almost like a RICO suit.

Smells like Gramsci and Alinsky.

It just smells.


232 posted on 01/10/2008 11:43:32 PM PST by The Spirit Of Allegiance (Public Employees: Honor Your Oaths! Defend the Constitution from Enemies--Foreign and Domestic!)
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To: The Spirit Of Allegiance
It just smells.

Stinkin' to high Heaven!

233 posted on 01/11/2008 12:20:29 AM PST by Just A Nobody (PISSANT for President '08 - NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! Beware the ENEMEDIA)
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To: Just A Nobody

“Well.....if I have to be polite.....that could be a deal breaker. ;*)”

I hear you.

I’m going to call the National Republican Party and tell them to please use their influence to get the state GOP to include ALL of the candidates in the debates.

I haven’t called them in a couple of years, but the number then was: 202-863-8500.


234 posted on 01/11/2008 7:57:30 AM PST by Sun (Duncan Hunter: pro-God/life/borders, understands Red China threat, NRA A+rating! www.gohunter08.com)
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To: Kevmo

No moron...simply calling something a ‘straw’ argument isn’t a mature response. But then again, I don’t think you really want to debate. Just bitch like 12 year old getting her first period.

You call me an idiot, and then say I have bad manners. Do you even know what manners are?

I never said anything about betraying principles. Preventing massive socialization of our economy betrays none of my principles.

If you want to live under the illusion that voting for a candidate that has no chance accomplishes something, feel free. Tell the smurphs I said, “hi”, over there in la la land.


235 posted on 01/11/2008 9:47:13 AM PST by Vanbasten
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To: Vanbasten

No moron...simply calling something a ‘straw’ argument isn’t a mature response.
***I called you an idiot because you’re posting directly in opposition to what the conservative founder of this website says, trying to redefine conservatism in your compromising, RINO image. Not because of the straw argument. Do you even know what a straw argument is? Maturity? That’s freeping PROOF that you don’t know what a straw argument is.

You call me an idiot, and then say I have bad manners. Do you even know what manners are?
***Yes. Do you know what it is when you go onto a website with a stated purpose of X and then argue against that stated purpose of X, directly in contradiction to the owner of the website, posting it ON HIS WEBSITE? That is the Freeping DEFINITION of bad manners.

I never said anything about betraying principles.
***You don’t have to. It’s plainly obvious by reading your posts.

Preventing massive socialization of our economy betrays none of my principles.
***That’s because you don’t have any principles.

If you want to live under the illusion that voting for a candidate that has no chance accomplishes something, feel free. Tell the smurphs I said, “hi”, over there in la la land.
***This is the PRIMARIES, not the ELECTIION. We are in the process of SELECTING the candidate, not VOTING for him. You can live with your own delusions all you want, but browbeating millions of conservatives into betraying their principles to vote for a RINO is going to lose the next election, guaranteed. You know this is true, but you still persist with your opinion that your approach is the right way, because you are a partisan, not a conservative. Tell that to the RINOs over in the GOP/RINOland.


236 posted on 01/11/2008 11:04:38 AM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter won't "let some arrogant corporate media executive decide whether this campaign's over)
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To: Kevmo

“***This is the PRIMARIES, not the ELECTIION. We are in the process of SELECTING the candidate, not VOTING for him.”

Hey dumbass. You’ve been corrected over and over by others, but I’ll do it again since you are slow. This is what you said.....

“On the latest poll, “I’ll vote R regardless” is leading the pack. I call people who vote this way UIN republicans, because they’ll vote for anything with an R in front of it, regardless of what it means.”

The poll is about THE GENERAL ELECTION. DO YOU COMPREHEND?

You insult people like me who spend money and time on true conservatives like Fred Thompson by calling me a RINO among other things. I haven’t given up on ANY primary, moron. You made a point about a poll, and I responded....

Now, take your prozac, call a friend if you don’t get what I am talking about, because I am done.


237 posted on 01/11/2008 12:32:54 PM PST by Vanbasten
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To: Russ

“I am a conservative who is a registered member of the Republican Party. As long as I am a member of that party I will vote for the candidate the party chooses to represent us in the general election. If we refuse to vote for any candidate who does not meet our conservative litmus test then we should get out and either reregister as an Independent or form a “Conservative Party”.
The Republican Party has always been made up of conservative, moderate, populist and liberal factions. The struggle for control by one group or another has been ongoing since the 1800’s. In fact, I like the wide range of choices in candidates we have this year. Every faction of the party is represented which leads to healthy debate which is alot more than can be said for the cookie-cutter candidates put up by the Democrats.

If Fred Thompson, for instance, would be nominated would we conservatives appreciate it if the moderate and liberal wing would sit out the election because their candidate didn’t win? Would conservatives have been OK with the moderates snubbing Reagan in 1980 and voting for John Anderson? Hardly.

The primary objective in this election, I believe, is to keep the radical wing of the Democrat Party (is there any other?) from gaining control of the White House and doing harm to our country through their social and economic experimentation. To do this we must support and vote for the candidate chosen by our party no matter whether we are 100% behind them or 30%. It is dangerous and even fool-hardy to do otherwise.”

I noticed that first you referred to the General election. This is primary season.

Why focus on the General election when we do not even know who the players are? Why not focus on the primary and put the best conservative in? Do you think the liberal wing or moderate wing of this party has the best chance to win? If so, what is your rationale for this considering that the more conservative candidates are the ones who win the landslides?


238 posted on 01/11/2008 7:20:03 PM PST by mjaneangels@aolcom
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To: visualops

“You know it’s not just how debate participants are chosen. It’s that the news media is in a sense running our lives by deciding what’s important and what’s not, by placing undo importance on polls (always, not just during elections), by the use of “pundits” whose vanities can make or break a candidate.
Last night, when asked about Fred Thompson in SC, Krauthammer declared he was “dead”. A week and a half before the primary, and you’ve made the decision for the voters of SC? I mean really, how dare you be so presumptuous as to decide he’s out? He came in second in Wyoming, 3rd in Iowa, but he’s “dead”?? But Guiliani is somehow viable only because of their precious polling nationally. I guess it doesn’t occur to them how much that hurts a campaign.
And I am sorry for the Duncan Hunter supporters because the media decided he wasn’t worth covering before the race even started.”

You bring up some very good points about the media trying to make our decisions for us.

I do think there is good news though. There have been 3 elections and 3 different first place winners. I see this as a sign that, while people are buying into the media talk some, they are not buying into it enough. If they were, Romney would probably have won Iowa and Wyoming. I think McCain would have won NH either way. SC will tell us a lot about what the GOP voters are really doing. If a 4th candidate takes 1st in SC we will have different winners in each of the first 4 states. I am not sure that has happened before, but I would take that as an indication that the people are not automatically buying what the LSM is selling.


239 posted on 01/11/2008 7:39:05 PM PST by mjaneangels@aolcom
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To: Vanbasten

Then I’ll say it again, because you are so slow: This is the PRIMARIES, not the ELECTIION. We are in the process of SELECTING the candidate, not VOTING for him.”

Free Republic has been inundated by RINOs who look to compromise DURING the PRIMARIES. It used to be a conservative site. But now Free Republic has followed the GOP and is filled with UIN Republicans like yourself.

I’m glad to see you’re done, infesting this thread like a pest. Take your own Prozac.


240 posted on 01/11/2008 8:42:27 PM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter won't "let some arrogant corporate media executive decide whether this campaign's over)
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