Posted on 01/08/2008 11:47:08 AM PST by jamese777
The latest USA Today/Gallup poll of national adults was conducted in the days immediately following the Iowa caucuses, from Jan. 4-6. According to that survey, both winners out of Iowa -- Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama -- now have pulled even or slightly ahead in their respective primary races among voters nationwide. Prior to Iowa, Obama was mired in second position behind Hillary Clinton and Huckabee was tied for second place with several Republicans behind then-front-runner Rudy Giuliani.
Obama Rising
The survey finds Obama tied with Clinton for first place, his best showing in months. Both candidates are now chosen by 33% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide as the preferred candidate for the nomination. This is a major shift from mid-December, when Clinton led Obama by 18 points, 45% to 27%.
The Republican Picture
Following Huckabee's Iowa win, 25% of Republicans nationwide now rate him as their top choice for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, up from 16% in mid-December. Sen. John McCain also saw his support increase during that time, from 14% to 19%. After losing the expectations game in Iowa by coming in second, Romney is now suffering a decline in national support, putting him well out of range for the lead. His current 9% of the vote is his worst showing in the race since early October.
Support for Giuliani, who chose not to compete in Iowa and has been shut out of the media spotlight, has also dropped, from 27% to 20%. Fred Thompson and Ron Paul are essentially holding steady at 12% and 4%, respectively.
Huckabee's five-point advantage over Giuliani and six-point edge over McCain still fall within the poll's margin of error, so from a strict statistical perspective, the three are essentially tied.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Potentially, it could be a Hukster vs Obama race in November, and that's what you are praying for? We have come a long way down bizarre road.
You need laser eye surgery.
“I would bet most of Rudy’s 20% is heavily concentrated in New York Metro, and that he’s in single digits elsewhere.”
I had posted to you a day or so ago that I didn’t think Huckabee could compete with Rudy on Super Tuesday. I have to hand it to you, while it remains to be seen whether Huckabee can make it to the end. He does seem to be gaining momentum.
I can see where Rudy gets damaged if he starts to look like he has chinks in his armor. I always wondered how deep Rudys Southern support was, but figured the pragmatic view that he was the most electable would win out. I’m not so sure about that now. Rudy is still in it, and Huckabee, and IMO McCain, at least for now. I’m not sure how this effects Romney yet. I do believe that if Huckabee continues to rise, and should he finish ahead of Fred in SC....Fred’s done. At that point my crystal ball gets foggy.
There, fixed it.
If Romney loses NH and Mi he will be out before SC and that changes everything!
I see Huck losing every single toss up state as he loses everyone BUT evangelicals, maybe a 40+ state loss for the GOP.
Doesn’t matter what the polls say now. In Nov, when crunch time comes and all the dirt has been thrown about, HUSSEIN Obama gets no more then 35% of the vote and that’s on a good day.
PC has people terrified of saying what they think but when the curtain in the booth closes, they will NOT vote for a black man whose name is coincidently similar to our mortal enemies.
“If Romney loses NH and Mi he will be out before SC and that changes everything!”
Well IMO it could boost McCain, not sure how it would effect Huckabee, and I don’t see how it can help Fred, unless Fred is already competitive, like running 1st or a close 2nd.
I’m not sure Romney will drop before SC though. No matter what happens in NH & MI
Not me.
He was, in my opinion, far and away the most comfortable, calm and likable of any of the candidates. While I like Fred and support Duncan, objectively Huck is just way more pleasant and a better speaker; I know the Fredheads will have conniption fits at my observation but I think the lack of objectivity is their problem, not mine. Again STRICTLY talking about how the candidate presents himself, nothing at all about policy or positions.
I think even some on DU are worried; huck *IS* likable, and likability counts for a LOT in modern America.
Double-fixed it.
Obviously things will change between now and Super Tuesday. Polls today give us a picture of where things are now nationally, and we can use our little gray cells to estimate where they'll be assuming X, Y, and Z happen.
Assuming Romney loses today --
I think he and Rudy are toast, but I don't think either will drop out before Super Tuesday, even though both will realize they can't win.
“National polls are a good overall look at where things stand for Super Tuesday today,...”
I absolutely believe that polls point out trends.
Huckabee is trending up, so in more limited way is McCain.
He would have no path to the nomination at that point because he polls poorly in the south and Ghouliani could beat him in the RAT states.
He also has another big problem. He is rich and few of his voters would donate much to his campaign at that point. They would expect him to fund it himself.
He will cut his losses and drop out.
The same thing happened to Dick DeVos running for Governor of Mi.
He is a mega rich business man that spent a ton to lose in a landslide to a unpopular RAT. He got almost no donations.
Unless Romney is short bus stupid he will drop out.
Yes, and horrors that the Republicans would finally present a candidate who speaks well and is likable!
Why are you here? This is a conservative site and I would never call Obama a conservative.
You vote as you choose of course. Me, I care about my freedoms, I care about my military, I care about having a man of wisdom and strength in the White House - not just the newest politician that speaks well and manages to cause hysteria in the crowds.
Hysteria and hero-worship are not indications of those seeking wisdom, strength and preservation of the country - those are the signs of children picking the latest pop star.
This is not American Idol.
Why are you here? I’ve been here 10 years.
If obama gets in and does badly he can be gotten rid of in four years. a sitting republican is harder to get out in 4.
And I will thank you to mind your own business.
With the large evangelical voting blocs in Ohio and Florida, I see the Huck carrying all the red states...too bad Obama :o)”
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Starting to look that way....I will vote for Huckabee if Hunter doesn’t make the cut.
The Internet will save us ... eventually.
The GOP doesn’t get it. They need to let this faction find a home. The amount of invective aimed at evangelicals is surprising, but then everyone wants their votes.
Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.
Prolife evangelicals will be very comfortable in Hunter’s camp, since he’s a prolife evangelical staunch conservative.
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