Posted on 01/07/2008 12:12:29 PM PST by SmithL
Fred is not dead. But his campaign is hanging by a thread.
That pretty much sums up where Fred Thompson's bid for the White House stands.
Heading into last week's Iowa caucuses, many political observers were saying the former U.S. senator from Tennessee needed to at least finish third to remain in the hunt for the Republican nomination.
Thompson got that, narrowly beating out Sen. John McCain for the third-place spot by less than one percentage point.
That's the good news, such as it was. But the bad news is that attention has now shifted to Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where Thompson isn't expected to do particularly well.
According to data released Friday by the Zogby International polling firm, Thompson was running in sixth place there, behind the other four major Republican contenders and long-shot hopeful Ron Paul.
Thompson's not polling well in Michigan, either, which will be the next event on the primary calendar. That leaves him in a situation where he'll almost have to win the Jan. 19 South Carolina primary in order to last until Feb. 5, when more than 20 states, including Tennessee, will hold their primaries.
Winning South Carolina may be an even tougher task for Thompson than it seemed a week ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at commercialappeal.com ...
John Zogby, president and chief executive officer of Zogby International, noted that Huckabee was already leading the polls in South Carolina, before picking up momentum with his Iowa win.
Zogby said he has a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Thompson can get himself back into contention.
"What can he do?" Zogby asked. "Short of praying for a room full of candidates to get struck by lightning, it's very hard."
Thompson was running in fifth place nationally last week, according to an average of the polls compiled on the Real Clear Politics Web site.
Of course, no candidate is mathematically eliminated from a presidential race after one or two or even five primaries.
However, money is the lifeblood of political campaigns.
Candidates can't be effective if they aren't able to raise enough money to run campaign organizations in the competitive primary states.
And the big money donors who finance those statewide campaign organizations tend to stop writing checks to candidates who can't get any traction early in the race.
U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp, a Chattanooga Republican, is hopeful Thompson's campaign will have at least enough financial resources to keep fighting through the Feb. 5 primaries.
Thompson might have to drop out sooner than that if he can't quickly reverse his fortunes.
Which would be a rather surprising turn of events for Thompson, who last summer was being hailed by some Republicans as the second coming of Ronald Reagan.
John Ryder, a local Republican activist, believes those lofty early expectations are part of what has hurt Thompson so far.
When Thompson got into the race, some Republicans were expecting him to blow away the rest of the field with a commanding media presence.
"These (other challengers) are strong men in their own right," Ryder said. "They didn't just melt away."
Also, Thompson waited until fall to get into the race, while most of his opponents began campaigning months earlier.
Consequently, although many Republicans might warm to Thompson's limited-government philosophy, he hasn't really had enough time to explain his beliefs, Ryder said.
Wamp said Thompson, unlike the other candidates, was drafted to run. And, he said, Thompson hasn't yet demonstrated the kind of fire in his belly many people expect from a presidential candidate.
"The one thing that hasn't happened is that he hasn't really convinced people he wants to be president," Wamp said. "That's very important. That's the only thing that's been missing from his campaign."
Ryder believes Thompson could have one advantage if he can avoid being eliminated during the early primary contests and fight to the end: If the Republicans go to their convention without any candidate winning the majority of the delegates, Ryder said Thompson might emerge as a consensus choice because he has fewer perceived negatives than the other top contenders.
The Republican National Convention won't begin until Sept. 1, though, which is an eternity away in politics. If Thompson has any hopes of prevailing under that type of scenario, he'll first have to figure out how to survive the month of January.
Politics Today aims to provide depth and perspective on political happenings in Memphis and the Mid-South. It runs on the Comment page every Monday.
Zzzzzz...
We’ll see in March when it actually counts. Iowa and NH mean very little other than tv time.
Winning every debate and propounding solid Conservative principles will pay off. This primary is going to Conference anyway.
People other than us politics junkies are just now starting to pay attention.
Winning every debate and propounding solid Conservative principles will pay off. This primary is going to Conference anyway.
LOL.
It’s amazing the amount of ink they spill about Fred not being competitive...
A brokered convention....
Hum....
Heh heh, always have a plan B...
Third place in Iowa is competitive, 4th or 5th place in New Hampshire will not be.
No mention that Fred came in second in Wyoming. Or that Duncan Hunter came in third. What a goofy reporting process there is. The reporters see only what other reporters tell them they should be seeing.
Okay. But only when it suits the audience he's pandering toward. I heard Huckabee on Hannity the other day...talking about the tenth amendment, lower taxes, limited government, reducing spending, being tough regarding what our foreign policy should be...I thought I was hearing things. This is the same guy who railed against CEO pay, called the CFG the Club for Greed, thinks it's a good idea to implement smoking bans in restaurants and bars, would give children of illegals tuition rates at public subsidized higher education institutions that are on par with a legal resident, and has a record of supporting the raising taxes during a period of time where he governed a state. But that's not all, he bad-mouthed our current foreign policy in an interview.
I'm not trusting this guy! If he happens to get the Party's nomination -- I hope that his campaign and support are decimated before then -- I will hold my nose very tightly from around August onward.
Thompson needs to take Huck OUT, NOW. Huck’s voters are closest to Thompson’s on positions. That’s his short term goal. Romney can wait, especially with McCain beating him in NH at the moment.
Thompson needs to dig deep on Huck and have a dossier on all the crap from his governorship down to the last detail, then start shouting it from the mountaintops.
“espouses many of the same conservative principles that Thompson does” False premise. Not even close in fact.
Anyone who insults the Club for Growth has their head up their orifice. The M$M would love for Fred to be over with. No such luck for them.
If that scenario pans out and Obama is the Democrat nominee, I will be really concerned. With this electorate and the ongoing MSM Obasm, that skinny bag of socialist helium will get himself elected.
Bill Clinton got 3% in Iowa in 1992.
Fred Thompson got 13%. ‘Nuff said.
You hit the nail on the head. I do NOT trust Huckabee for some reason. I don’t know why, but I don’t. One of those things you can’t “quite put your finger on”.
I heard the Huckster mention limited government and local control over things like schools as well. Either he is not understanding that limited and decentralized government are the oposite from the centralized federal social, health and educational programs he touts or he is playing the public as a sucker. I think he knows that these are fiscal conservative stands and he mouths the words but his record shows he does not walk the walk.
Fred Thompson got 13%. ‘Nuff said.
Bill Clinton finished a strong second in NH. If Fred does that, then "nuff said."
Huck is RUNNING straight out as an economic populist using liberal parlance.
He is RUNNING a campaign on CHANGING the Republican Party.
FT must REPEAT Huff's platform where ever he goes, not get in the weeds about numbers.
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