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Rasmussen gives McCain a 32.5% chance of winning the nomination while Intrade.com gives him 33%. Giuliani gets 28%, Huckabee 15.7%, and Romney 14.9% from Intrade. Hillary receives 51.7% and Obama 46.4% from Intrade.

1 posted on 01/04/2008 5:01:49 PM PST by Norman Bates

To: TitansAFC; meandog; therut; Laissez-faire capitalist; MARTIAL MONK; napscoordinator; sportutegrl; ..

The McCain List.

2 posted on 01/04/2008 5:02:26 PM PST by Norman Bates

To: Norman Bates

Momentum? McCain finished 4th in Iowa. What the heck are the pundits drinking? The only reason McCain will win New Hampshire is because the “Independents” can vote as Republicans.

3 posted on 01/04/2008 5:03:28 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Hillary Clinton has never done one thing right. She thinks that qualifies her to be President?)

4 posted on 01/04/2008 5:04:55 PM PST by TigersEye (In my heart is a wellspring of sorrow. My joy is in seeing the emptiness of it.)

To: Norman Bates

If McCain wins the nomination, I am done with the Republican Party. I can’t embrace a party that votes their Benedict Arnold into their highest office. I know the GOP is known as the “Stupid Party” but nominating McCain is beyond stupid. It’s suicidal.

7 posted on 01/04/2008 5:19:16 PM PST by Tall_Texan (No Third Term For Bill Clinton!)

To: Norman Bates

I’ll never support McCain (Even in the general election): He’s a RINO that supports legislation Ted Kennedy (Ted Kennedy) likes! and..is the Sponsor of Amnesty~!!!

8 posted on 01/04/2008 5:22:21 PM PST by JSDude1 (When a liberal represents the Presidential Nominee for the Republicans; THEY'RE TOAST)

To: Norman Bates

There are far too many Republicans who will stay home on election day if McCain is the nominee. I’m one. I will not an cannot vote for anyone who supports amnesty, or supports any restrictions on political speech. For me and for many others, those are non-negotiable points.

10 posted on 01/04/2008 5:27:38 PM PST by sourcery (The Branch Algorian cult believes in human sacrifice)

To: Norman Bates

Final 4 predictions:

GOP McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, Paul
Then Thompson will fold to McCain,
McCain will win over Huckabee
and the ticket will be McCain - Huckabee
Ron Paul won’t endorse.

Dems Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Richardson
Then Clinton will fold to Richardson,
Edwards folds to Obama,
and a Richardson - Obams ticket will emerge.

Anything else Bloomberg comes in.

We’ll see. You’re guess.

14 posted on 01/04/2008 5:39:31 PM PST by ex-snook ("Above all things, truth beareth away the victory.")

To: Norman Bates

Two caveats with this sort of thing:

a) Prices can and do change rather abruptly with events; at these times the prices tend to behave like lagging indicators.

b) These futures rely on the so-called wisdom of large crowds, so that as volume approaches zero, so does their predictive value (with the added warning that sufficiently ‘thin’ markets are susceptible to manipulation and abuse).

17 posted on 01/04/2008 5:44:16 PM PST by Petronski (Willard Myth Romney: 51% negatives)

To: Norman Bates

McCain is old. However, I would vote for him before I would vote for Huckabee.

29 posted on 01/04/2008 5:58:18 PM PST by popdonnelly (Get Reid. Salazar, and Harkin out of the Senate.)

To: Norman Bates

Futures Markets See McCain, Obama Wins

**In my best blonde voice and a flip of my hair**

Well! I guess I just won't visit those markets then!

38 posted on 01/04/2008 6:18:28 PM PST by Shelayne (...)

To: Norman Bates

It is very possible that McCain could win NH as in 2000, knocking out Romney. That does not mean that he will win the nomination.

47 posted on 01/04/2008 6:49:08 PM PST by iowamark

To: Norman Bates

McPain won NH in 2,000 when he was a much younger guy. Now at age 71 he doesn’t look so spry, his gait is slower, and winning NH will likely just result in a repeat of the loss he suffered in 2000 in South Carolina. Since he has no funds remaining, I give him a slim chance the NH bounce won’t have any legs. It's unlikely his AMNESTY plan will sell much outside of NH, which really doesn't have much of an illegal problem, nowhere near what exists in southern states.

It’s fun to write like the drive by media. No chance of anything positive will ever escape the drive bys until a Democrat is elected president. Then, if the media is still alive, and many are just barely kicking these days, they may be able to muster a celebration amongst the two remaining news reporters.

48 posted on 01/04/2008 6:49:13 PM PST by Tarpon (Ignorance, the most expensive commodity produced by mankind.)

To: Norman Bates

Thanks for posting this, I’m fascinated with Intrade.

Since yesterday’s Iowa caucus, his dropout contract has risen by ~40 points, currently at 75% and leading the pack.

DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 75.0

Huckabee has surged lately because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.

I do not know Duncan Hunter’s strategy. However, he may yet surprise us even before New Hampshire. Because he has campaigned in Wyoming, which has a race before New Hampshire, and no one else is campaigning there.

Wyoming to Hold Overlooked GOP Caucus Before New Hampshire
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1947693/posts

Then there’s New Hampshire. Hunter’s already there while everyone else wraps up in Iowa. It’s conceivable that he will have momentum.

Basically, it’s a wide open race, with the lead changing on a weekly basis. Might as well support the truest conservative, Hunter.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

53 posted on 01/04/2008 7:35:36 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)

To: Norman Bates

If these futures markets are gonna get press, it begs the question of how much money it would take to move the market?

That sort of thing happens in other markets but in big markets the move is always temporary. in a small market a candidate might get good return by influencing his “price.”

54 posted on 01/04/2008 7:37:33 PM PST by gondramB (Preach the Gospel at all times, and when necessary, use words.)

To: Norman Bates

58 posted on 01/04/2008 8:04:18 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Islam is a religion of peace, and Muslims reserve the right to kill anyone who says otherwise.)

To: Norman Bates

If McClown wins the nomination, Obama is the next president.

McClown is a nasty characture of EVERYTHING a RINO is.

59 posted on 01/04/2008 8:15:28 PM PST by ZULU (Non nobis, non nobis Domine, sed nomini tuo da gloriam. God, guts and guns made America great.)

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