Posted on 01/04/2008 5:01:47 PM PST by Norman Bates
Bets in the political futures markets strongly suggest the momentum Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain gained in the Iowa caucuses will carry them both to strong victories in the upcoming New Hampshire primary.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen, who relied on the markets to predict accurately Iowa wins for Obama and Gov. Mike Huckabee, told WND McCain gained the most nationally after a virtual tie for third in the Hawkeye state. Anticipating a New Hampshire victory, the markets now project the Arizona senator as the favorite to win the GOP nomination.
The Rasmussen market predictions now give Obama a 65 percent chance of winning the Democratic primary in New Hampshire and McCain a 74 percent chance in the state's Republican contest.
Intrade.com, a predictions market run out of Ireland, shows almost exactly the same results, giving Obama a 67 percent chance of winning New Hampshire and McCain a 74.9 percent chance.
"Our prediction market for Iowa turned out to be very accurate," Rasmussen said.
(Excerpt) Read more at wnd.com ...
McCain and Stem Cell Research Round-up
SEN. JOHN McCAIN: THE ULTIMATE "RHINESTONE HERO"
SEN. JOHN McCAIN: THE ULTIMATE "RHINESTONE HERO" Part II
U.S. Sen. John McCain is no War Hero
John McCain: The Manchurian Candidat
McCain Is Booed by Labor Activists
McCain Rides to Kerry's Rescue: "John Kerry is Not Weak on Defense" (Today Show alert)
John McCain SCREAMS AT 9/11 FSA MEMBERS FOR OPPOSING HIS BILL TO GIVE AMNESTY FOR ILLEGALS
A number of articles on McCain. (some the same as above)
McCain Seeks to Change California Primary
McCain/Soros by Rabbi Areyh Spero
Soros' "Reform" (an article about Soros‘ instrumental hand in McCain/Feingold)
Not Child‘s Play [McCain/Schumer bill could effect FR?]
McCain's Letter (McCain aligns with Global Enviro activists)
The Turning Point on Global Warming (McCain and Lieberman Op-Ed Alert)
Climate bill sets stage for debate (Sens. McCain, Obama, and Lieberman join forces)
McCain: Global warming is fact, must be addressed [hurl alert]
McCain Looked into Caucusing with Democrats
McCain Still Disliked by Fiscal Conservatives (Club For Growth)
John McCain Goes Left for Money
McCain, Obama Make Deal on Financing
Sens. Snowe, Collins to head Maine exploratory committee for McCain
Double Talk Express. McCain in his own words. VIDEO
More YOUTUBE - McCain On Abortion (UH OH! YouTube Has a Video of Him in 1999)
The following links posted by raving utter and lifted by me…
How Cindy McCain was outed for drug addiction(stole drugs from the American Voluntary Medical Team)
John McCain: Hypocrite by Mark R. Levin
John McCain and the Kemper Marley organised crime network
McCain and his Chicom Connections: Posts #17 and #18 by Calpernia
More links I found...
TEN REASONS NOT TO SUPPORT MCCAIN (Free Republic thread from 2000)
It depends on the meaning of “never” (McCain's Convenient Memory) **NEW**
McCain could win New Hampshire, as if anyone actually lives there, but his “close Guantanamo” mantra is not likely to play well with normal GOP voters.
Yes, McCain finished fourth just a few hundred votes behind Fred of well over 100,000 cast on the GOP side - in a place where he had been polling in single digits just a few weeks ago for months, having run zero commericals, having campaigned very little there, and having opposed the number one sop in the state, farm subsidies.
If McCain wins the nomination, I am done with the Republican Party. I can’t embrace a party that votes their Benedict Arnold into their highest office. I know the GOP is known as the “Stupid Party” but nominating McCain is beyond stupid. It’s suicidal.
I’ll never support McCain (Even in the general election): He’s a RINO that supports legislation Ted Kennedy (Ted Kennedy) likes! and..is the Sponsor of Amnesty~!!!
There are far too many Republicans who will stay home on election day if McCain is the nominee. I’m one. I will not an cannot vote for anyone who supports amnesty, or supports any restrictions on political speech. For me and for many others, those are non-negotiable points.
Sweet! Thanks dude!
I seriously think we could end up with a McCain/Huck ticket. They are quite buddy buddy and avoiding direct assaults on eachother. Match Independent/Evangelical appeal up against Obama the Black Kennedy/Mark Warner. I’ll have to remember this post if I turn out to be right
Please. You think McCain would be worse on immigration than Hillary and Obama who will be overtly working to pack the country with enough po’ folks to keep the socialist in power for eternity? McCain has his good qualities and they make him a better fallback choice than a true blue liberal Democrat in any situation.
Final 4 predictions:
GOP McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, Paul
Then Thompson will fold to McCain,
McCain will win over Huckabee
and the ticket will be McCain - Huckabee
Ron Paul won’t endorse.
Dems Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Richardson
Then Clinton will fold to Richardson,
Edwards folds to Obama,
and a Richardson - Obams ticket will emerge.
Anything else Bloomberg comes in.
We’ll see. You’re guess.
I guess we’ll be stuck with Him, If He wins. (big if) But He’s not my choice.
But NO rat will ever get my vote...
And I'm another.
McCain-Feingold, Amnesty, Gang of 14, etc?
No thanks.
Two caveats with this sort of thing:
a) Prices can and do change rather abruptly with events; at these times the prices tend to behave like lagging indicators.
b) These futures rely on the so-called wisdom of large crowds, so that as volume approaches zero, so does their predictive value (with the added warning that sufficiently ‘thin’ markets are susceptible to manipulation and abuse).
I actually was thinking the same thing earlier, although without Warner in the equation. Huckabee makes an appealing VP as a sop to fundamentalists in order to keep them from abandoning the party like I will be if McCain is the nominee.
Make that - your guess?
Sure... thats exactly what Obama wants to hear
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