Iowa Predictions

01/02/08 | ASB

[mommya]

Dems-
1 Obama
2 Clinton
3 Edwards

Rep.-
1 Huck.
2 Romney
3 Paul
4 Thompson
5 McCain
6 Guiliani
7 Hunter

[rhombus]

I agree Edwards may sweep in there because the caucus rooms will be stuffed with big fierce looking guys from the AFL-CIO. Obama’s students and college professors may wet themselves.

[bill1952]

Just so that we can see the history of the Iowa caucus
(whatever the Iowa caucus even IS)

Democrats:
1972 - Iowa Caucus winner: Edmund Muskie. He neither became the party candidate nor the President.
*
1976 - Iowa Caucus winner: No Winner, the largest vote went to “Uncommitted” (the eventual President, Democrat Jimmy Carter, only got 28% of the vote)
*
1980 - Iowa Caucus winner: Jimmy Carter - lost in general election to Ronald Reagan
*
1984 - Iowa Caucus winner: Walter Mondale - lost in general election as Ronald Reagan re-elected.
*
1988 - Iowa Caucus winner: Richard Gephart was not the Party’s eventual nominee.
*
1992 - Iowa Caucus winner: Tom Harkin in a landslide victory -eventual party nominee and next President, Bill Clinton only got 3% of the vote
*
1996 - Iowa Caucus winner: Since Bill Clinton ran unopposed in the caucus, Iowa caucus-goers couldn’t help but vote for the eventual winner.
*
2000 - Iowa Caucus winner: Al Gore - did not become the next President of the U.S.
*
2004 - Iowa Caucus winner: John Kerry - did not become the next President.

---

Republican:
2004- George W. Bush* (unopposed)

2000- George W. Bush* (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)

1996- Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Morry Taylor (1%)

1992- George H. W. Bush (unopposed)

1988- Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush* (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)

1984- Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)

1980- George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)

1976- Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan

Apparently, the good people of Iowa don’t even vote for the candidates and the caucus is little more than a straw poll of sorts with no legal binding to have that candidate selected by the state convention members.

[NeoCaveman]

I agree Edwards may sweep in there because the caucus rooms will be stuffed with big fierce looking guys from the AFL-CIO.

Well Edwards has had almost 4 years to figure out how to win this thing, if he can't even do that then he's pretty darn worthless.

[Antoninus]

GOP:

Huckabee: 23%
Thompson: 21%
Romney: 17%
McCain: 12%
Hunter: 10%
Paul: 8%
Abortiani: 7%
Keyes: 2%

Dems:

Obama: 33%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 24%

You heard it here first.

[rhombus]

Oh Edwards is useless all right... I’m just remembering 4 years ago when the equally useless labor candidate came out of no where to win Iowa.

[Star Traveler]

LOL..., I think you put that list upside down, from the other predictions I’ve seen... :-)

[AppyPappy]

Huck for the Repubs
Hillary for the Dems

[Osage Orange]

I predict the American people will lose.......

[bluebeak]

Save the party! Real Iowan Conservative get your butts out and caucus for Fred!

We will get slaughtered by Hillary in November with Flip Flop Romney, Fly by the seat of his pants Huckabee, 529/Keating 5 McCain, or Liberal Rudy.

[Pappy Smear]

I made this prediction (feel free to search) on the 27th, one week prior to the caucus, and I will stick to it. I live in Iowa, and it is based on ad buys, yard signs, and just gut feel.

Ds Edwards, Hillary, Obama, 1-2-3 with 6% between top and bottom. Edwards picks up the people that went with unviable candidates to get the somewhat surprising win. I am not so certain all of the Obama hubbub carries over into votes.

Rs
Romney 25%, Huckleberry 22, Thompson 16, Paul 15, McCain 9, Guliani 8, and the rest-the rest.

I think I may be a little long on the Paul percentage, but I’ll stick with it-what the hey.

[MHT]

If Obama and Hillary are too close, Edwards could win it on a second-ballot. Apparently, everyone is trying to get their candidate pushed in the second round.

[Battle Axe]

When I lived in Iowa, I went to the caucus. I expected something really whoop-tee-doo.

I was disappointed. It was not the local leaders, it was a collection of weirdos, each with their own agenda.

I voted, they sent in the votes and I left. I was even afraid to eat the food. I did not recognize anyone, but they all supposedly lived nearby. I had only lived there about a year, but I still shake my head.

My predictions:

Dems: Three way statistical tie.

GOP: Huckabee then McCain

[oust the louse]

I predict the grass the Hildabeast walked on thru this caucus will never grow again.

[bluebeak]

isn’t the turnout pitiful ... considering all the time and money spent by candidates ... what excuse do people have? There are plenty of candidates running on both sides.

[NYC Republican]

Here's my picks, FWIW

Romney 32%

Huckabee 28%

Thompson 14%

McCain 13%

Giuliani 7%

Paul 3%

Hunter 2%

[Battle Axe]

It was not that the people of Iowa didn’t know about it, nothing but that on the news. My husband refused to go. The neighbors said they weren’t going to something that didn’t matter.

After reading the previous posts, I think they were right.

[Route66]

Okay. I'll give it a try.

Republicans:

Romney 26%
Thompson 22%
Huckabee 22%
McCain 16%
Paul 8%
Giuliani 5%
Hunter 1%

Democrats:

I don't care. Let them sort out their own mess and we'll take care of the last loser standing next November.

[HAL9000]

The weather forecast is clear for tomorrow, so the rural turnout should be good.

Just for fun, I'll go with these predictions -

Huckabee	28%
Romney	27%
Thompson	18%
McCain	12%
Paul	9%
Giuliani	7%

The Democratic procedure is so convoluted, I can't make any estimates.

[ejonesie22]

Republican Party:

Mitt 23%
Huck 20%
Fred 18%
McCain 15%
Rudy 10%

Asylum/Surrender party

Ron Paul 2345% via cell phone...

Democraps

Osama 40%
Her Thighness 35%
The Hair 25%