Posted on 01/01/2008 9:01:14 AM PST by RKB-AFG
Republican Blood Feud
The worst-case primary scenario.
By David Freddoso
Less than a week remains before Republicans begin the long and arduous road to choosing a nominee. It begins in Iowa on Jan. 3, and continues at least through Feb. 5, the day that more than 20 states will select delegates to the convention in Minnesotas Twin Cities next fall.
The possibility for idle speculation is endless. But there are a number of things we know for sure. First, the rise of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is more than a passing phenomenon. Polls show that his religious conservative voters are highly dedicated and motivated 65 percent of his backers will definitely vote for him in Iowa, better than any other candidate. They could even prove to be better organized than his shoestring campaign would suggest, thanks to churches and pastors in that state and several others.
Second, although former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is struggling and slipping badly in national and key state polls, he is almost certain to win hundreds of delegates by the time Super Tuesday is over, no matter how poorly he does before that date. New York alone guarantees him 101 delegates (about 1,190 are required to win). Throw in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Delaware (all of which have adopted winner-take-all), and he cannot do worse than 201 delegates not even if he fails to take Floridas 57.
These two certainties point to one possible outcome that should alarm Republicans of all ideological stripes the religious and the irreligious, the right-to-lifers, the gun-rights advocates, the supply-siders, and the neoconservatives alike. A two-way knock-down-drag-out fight between Huckabee and Giuliani could completely destroy the coalition that Ronald Reagan built by combining social and economic conservatives with anti-Communists.
In one corner stands Mike Huckabee, whose campaign speaks freely of destroying the conservative movement. Its gone, said Ed Rollins, his national campaign chairman. The breakup of what was the Reagan coalition social conservatives, defense conservatives, antitax conservatives it doesnt mean a whole lot to people anymore. Naturally, Rollins points to Huckabee as the figure to form the new coalition.
Huckabee, a Baptist minister, has an appeal that doubles as his most unattractive quality. Far from merely appealing to Christians or engaging in normal expressions of faith, he is consciously making himself the Jesus candidate in order to win the Republican nomination. It is a strategy exploitative of faith, yet it has worked so far because so many Republicans are Christians and so many are also unhappy with the rest of the Republican field.
Lost in the so-called floating cross controversy over Huckabees Christmas ad was the ads overt use of Christianity to win an election. When Huckabee reminded Iowans in the ad that what really matters is the celebration of the birth of Christ, it obviously had a lot less to do with glorifying the Lord on Dec. 25 than it did with convincing a certain kind of Iowan to caucus for Huckabee on Jan. 3. Huckabees campaign has been replete with such uses of faith, including other ads touting his Christian leadership and gratuitous quotations from Isaiah. Asked about his surge in the polls, Huckabee said earlier this month, Theres only one explanation for it, and its not a human one. Its the same power that helped a little boy with two fish and five loaves feed a crowd of five thousand people.
As he flashes his cross for all to see, Huckabee and his campaign routinely launch populist tirades against economic conservatives, denouncing the Club for Greed and the Washington-Wall Street Axis. He is denouncing people whose support he will need if he wins the nomination and considering his record of raising taxes, one might expect a more conciliatory approach. He has adopted the language of President Bushs compassionate conservatism, also known as bigger government. He prefers talks with Iran to further confrontation, but beyond that has been far from articulate on foreign policy.
In the opposite corner stands former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the fading frontrunner and Huckabees polar opposite. Giulianis personal life is the dream of every opposition researcher. Any dip into the New York Post archives on the twice-divorced Catholic Giuliani who his Church may come to criticize along the way gives credence to Hillary Clinton as a champion of family values.
Giuliani is pro legal abortion, and this alone will cost him many votes, both in the primary and in a general election against a pro-abortion Democrat. Unlike Huckabee, Giuliani looks to be trying to attract Republicans who disagree with him on key issues, yet his nomination would nonetheless create the greatest demand for a third-party candidate since 1996, or even 1992.
Giulianis record on taxes and his understanding of complex economic issues such as health insurance are his main selling points for the average conservative. But on just about everything else including gun rights he is a Republican apostate. While distancing himself from Bushs failure of compassionate conservatism, Rudy advocates an even more aggressive foreign policy that may include war with Iran. For those already firmly in his camp, this is terrific for many others on the Right, it is terrifying.
A Huck-Rudy showdown would be a primary fight between two candidates with almost nothing in common. It would polarize and tear apart the Republican party just as the national electorate is currently polarized.
Such a disaster is a very distinct possibility. If Huckabee takes out Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, or else heads off a resurgent McCain in South Carolina (or even Michigan), everything could come down to the close race developing between Huckabee and Giuliani in Florida. By the time Feb. 5 is over, Huckabee and Giuliani could be the clear frontrunners with their delegate counts, and more than half the convention delegates will have already been awarded.
For the late contests, Republicans of one stripe would decide that Rudy is the only man who can stop Huckabee. And Republicans of a different stripe would fall in behind Huckabee as the only man who can stop Rudy. This bitter fight would also leave many Republican voters with a paralyzing choice between two poor general election candidates. From there, it becomes a Republican blood feud unless a third candidate can force a brokered convention.
David Freddoso is an NRO staff reporter.
Watching Giuliani navigate the political process is like watching a horror film festival.....he’s got more sequels than Bela Lugosi.
He’s been outed for porking his mistress on the taxpayers’ dime then hiding the theft of servces in obscure city agencies.
His driver, bodyguard and Police Commissioner and former business paerner (in that order) is an admitted felon and is under federal charges of tax evasion and lying to the WH.
Giuliani’s secrecy about his multiple global businesses and his clients also served to sink his candidacy.
But Giuliani is the lapdog of the Endless War Hopefuls-—the neopukes got trillion dollar US war budgets dancing in their fool heads....you’d think the nitwits would be happy with the trillions they forced taxpayers to sink into Iraq.
No matter how many stakes are driven into Rooty’s presidential aspirations, the Rudester comes back from the dead, climbs out of his coffin with the same evil smirk, to wreak havoc on our political process again and again.
Rooty’s got the resilience of Count Dracula and the resume of a calculating conman......not exactly star material for the White House.
that's a rather snobbish generalization and quite different from what I have observed at least amongst the Pentecost and Fundamentalists
I have no way of knowing which scenario will play out, but I don't think you can say "I must come in 2nd" and then turn around less than a week later and say, "Oh, I was wrong, sorry".
It has reached the point that I’m getting excited about 2012...when we win the WH back and take Congress as well!
‘Cuz right now, I’m unenthused about most, and will not vote for Huckabee or McCain. It really looks to me like at least 1/3 of the base is likely to sit out the election - unless Fred really picks up some steam!
Yes it would but I see this as a highly unlikely scenario. Both of these candidates have had relative volatility in their polling. One will be 'up' and the other 'out' by super Tuesday. Or they may both be 'out.' What won't happen is both of them staying 'up'.
His conversion would end the moment he had the nomination won. I think we could hold MItt's feet to the fire, but McCain wouldn't care - he considers us all to be contemptible racist science-denying greedy slobs.
Discernment has been in very short supply lately.
Yep. Dat Br'er Rabbit, he lay low.
The good news, if you can call it that, is that a Clinton presidency will guarantee both houses to the Pubbies by ‘10 and a good 12 years of Pubbie presidents from ‘12 on.
But I think it won’t come to that. I’d like to see Fred in the ‘final two’, but I think either Mitt or McCain is likely to be an alternative ahead of Rudy.
“He actually changed the “I must come in 3rd” to “I must come in 2nd in Iowa”. He said this two days ago. So Fred either has internal polls that say this is a possibility, or he is trying to prepare his followers to the fact that he is dropping out.”
I think he would have to place at least 2nd in Iowa just to hope to remain alive till SC. Isn’t he way down in both MI & NH. I don’t remember the latest polls from SC, but didn’t he also fall off there a little bit as well. IMO he has to be running 2nd...or maybe 3rd if he were real close going into Super Tuesday. I’m not saying it can’t be done, but it does in fact look daunting.
It's only gone because there is no credible leader to take the helm. All the parts are still there and still valid. Too bad Hunter didn't try for the Senate years ago instead of languishing in backbench obscurity his whole career. He has the pieces/parts but neither the credibility nor charisma.
You think a Rudy-Huck battle complicates things? Consider a Huck-Romney battle... with Rudy taking 200+ delegates.
“Huckabee is not my preferred candidate but if he gets the nod I will support him in the general election.”
And what if Rudy gets the nod? Will you also vote for him?
It mentioned only Huck and Rudy. If it was an article about McCain vs. Romney, what would you say?
(PS: National Review may be lots of things, but biased fans of Huck and Rudy, it is NOT!)
My folks are Born Again Christians, but even they no longer drink Huck aide. They have seen through him.
He would lose because he has tried to USE religion to get the nomination.
He has hurt the Christian right more than he has spoken for them.
America is about freedom of religion, if the religion of the candidate is a plus for conservatism and the freedom of all US citizens it is a plus.
The idea is to promote that freedom without pushing any one religion, if the POTUS happens to be Christian, that is great, but it should not have an effect on being POTUS.
He could be Jewish, Baptist or whatever, as long as he promotes and protects the rights of all US citizens to practice their faith while protecting the Constitution.
Huck has used faith to get in the door, he is insincere and has a very liberal background except for abortion.
He is personable, but would literally be creamed in a general election. The Dems will obliterate him by using the baloney he is peddling in the primaries to make it look like he will impose his religion on the masses. Formula for GOP disaster.
I think people expected far more charisma from Fred, and not this low-key approach. I know I did. Plus, he gets short shrift from the media coverage. A "beat expectations" showing in Iowa would help alleviate the situation a lot.
Its “I am ready for Fred and Duncan time”!
I need something other than what we have been pelted with daily.
Most of us are sick of most of these people and then we are supposed to to go out and vote for them.
I vote most of them “OFF” my island. Then....I want to get on with life.
You know, many people probably would go along with that!
As I said, I will support and vote for whomever wins the nomination.
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