I have no way of knowing which scenario will play out, but I don't think you can say "I must come in 2nd" and then turn around less than a week later and say, "Oh, I was wrong, sorry".
“He actually changed the “I must come in 3rd” to “I must come in 2nd in Iowa”. He said this two days ago. So Fred either has internal polls that say this is a possibility, or he is trying to prepare his followers to the fact that he is dropping out.”
I think he would have to place at least 2nd in Iowa just to hope to remain alive till SC. Isn’t he way down in both MI & NH. I don’t remember the latest polls from SC, but didn’t he also fall off there a little bit as well. IMO he has to be running 2nd...or maybe 3rd if he were real close going into Super Tuesday. I’m not saying it can’t be done, but it does in fact look daunting.