Posted on 01/01/2008 9:01:14 AM PST by RKB-AFG
Republican Blood Feud
The worst-case primary scenario.
By David Freddoso
Less than a week remains before Republicans begin the long and arduous road to choosing a nominee. It begins in Iowa on Jan. 3, and continues at least through Feb. 5, the day that more than 20 states will select delegates to the convention in Minnesota’s Twin Cities next fall.
The possibility for idle speculation is endless. But there are a number of things we know for sure. First, the rise of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is more than a passing phenomenon. Polls show that his religious conservative voters are highly dedicated and motivated — 65 percent of his backers will “definitely” vote for him in Iowa, better than any other candidate. They could even prove to be better organized than his shoestring campaign would suggest, thanks to churches and pastors in that state and several others.
Second, although former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is struggling and slipping badly in national and key state polls, he is almost certain to win hundreds of delegates by the time Super Tuesday is over, no matter how poorly he does before that date. New York alone guarantees him 101 delegates (about 1,190 are required to win). Throw in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Delaware (all of which have adopted winner-take-all), and he cannot do worse than 201 delegates — not even if he fails to take Florida’s 57.
These two certainties point to one possible outcome that should alarm Republicans of all ideological stripes — the religious and the irreligious, the right-to-lifers, the gun-rights advocates, the supply-siders, and the neoconservatives alike. A two-way knock-down-drag-out fight between Huckabee and Giuliani could completely destroy the coalition that Ronald Reagan built by combining social and economic conservatives with anti-Communists.
In one corner stands Mike Huckabee, whose campaign speaks freely of destroying the conservative movement. “It’s gone,” said Ed Rollins, his national campaign chairman. “The breakup of what was the Reagan coalition — social conservatives, defense conservatives, antitax conservatives — it doesn’t mean a whole lot to people anymore.” Naturally, Rollins points to Huckabee as the figure to form the new coalition.
Huckabee, a Baptist minister, has an appeal that doubles as his most unattractive quality. Far from merely appealing to Christians or engaging in normal expressions of faith, he is consciously making himself the “Jesus candidate” in order to win the Republican nomination. It is a strategy exploitative of faith, yet it has worked so far because so many Republicans are Christians and so many are also unhappy with the rest of the Republican field.
Lost in the so-called “floating cross” controversy over Huckabee’s Christmas ad was the ad’s overt use of Christianity to win an election. When Huckabee reminded Iowans in the ad that “what really matters is the celebration of the birth of Christ,” it obviously had a lot less to do with glorifying the Lord on Dec. 25 than it did with convincing a certain kind of Iowan to caucus for Huckabee on Jan. 3. Huckabee’s campaign has been replete with such uses of faith, including other ads touting his Christian leadership and gratuitous quotations from Isaiah. Asked about his surge in the polls, Huckabee said earlier this month, “There’s only one explanation for it, and it’s not a human one. It’s the same power that helped a little boy with two fish and five loaves feed a crowd of five thousand people.”
As he flashes his cross for all to see, Huckabee and his campaign routinely launch populist tirades against economic conservatives, denouncing “the Club for Greed” and the “Washington-Wall Street Axis.” He is denouncing people whose support he will need if he wins the nomination — and considering his record of raising taxes, one might expect a more conciliatory approach. He has adopted the language of President Bush’s “compassionate conservatism,” also known as “bigger government.” He prefers talks with Iran to further confrontation, but beyond that has been far from articulate on foreign policy.
In the opposite corner stands former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the fading frontrunner and Huckabee’s polar opposite. Giuliani’s personal life is the dream of every opposition researcher. Any dip into the New York Post archives on the twice-divorced Catholic Giuliani — who his Church may come to criticize along the way — gives credence to Hillary Clinton as a champion of family values.
Giuliani is pro legal abortion, and this alone will cost him many votes, both in the primary and in a general election against a pro-abortion Democrat. Unlike Huckabee, Giuliani looks to be trying to attract Republicans who disagree with him on key issues, yet his nomination would nonetheless create the greatest demand for a third-party candidate since 1996, or even 1992.
Giuliani’s record on taxes and his understanding of complex economic issues such as health insurance are his main selling points for the average conservative. But on just about everything else — including gun rights — he is a Republican apostate. While distancing himself from Bush’s failure of “compassionate conservatism,” Rudy advocates an even more aggressive foreign policy that may include war with Iran. For those already firmly in his camp, this is terrific — for many others on the Right, it is terrifying.
A Huck-Rudy showdown would be a primary fight between two candidates with almost nothing in common. It would polarize and tear apart the Republican party just as the national electorate is currently polarized.
Such a disaster is a very distinct possibility. If Huckabee takes out Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, or else heads off a resurgent McCain in South Carolina (or even Michigan), everything could come down to the close race developing between Huckabee and Giuliani in Florida. By the time Feb. 5 is over, Huckabee and Giuliani could be the clear frontrunners with their delegate counts, and more than half the convention delegates will have already been awarded.
For the late contests, Republicans of one stripe would decide that Rudy is the only man who can stop Huckabee. And Republicans of a different stripe would fall in behind Huckabee as the only man who can stop Rudy. This bitter fight would also leave many Republican voters with a paralyzing choice between two poor general election candidates. From there, it becomes a Republican blood feud unless a third candidate can force a brokered convention.
— David Freddoso is an NRO staff reporter.
Then so am I...
The mega-church members I've known have tended to be affluent middle to upper management business types. They're not particularly easily led. I always like to tease them and tell them that I've heard that their particular church is stock-piling assault weapons to take over the world.
Has your experience of these folks been different than mine?
Well put...
I wouldn’t vote for either, against anybody.
Huckleberry was invited to speak to the Council, of which Soros is a prominent member.
He’s been surging ever since.
Rooty and Romney are both anti gun, scratch them because Republicans can’t win without the gun voters.
McCain wants to give the country to Mexico and 70% of voters hate that idea, scratch him.
Huck, Keyes, Paul ? LMAO!...scratch them for various reasons.
That leaves Fred and Hunter. Which will the GOP business leaders support?
Well maybe smarts are missing in Iowa, I hope not.
But...I also remember after the 2006 elections Karl Rove was asked about starting the 2008 kickoff so early. He mentioned that it was too early, therefore making voters sick of these people by crunch time.
Maybe, just maybe, the Fred campaign is pulling off a very deft move.
I would love Hunter/Thompson, but based on what I see, I would be very comfortable and enthused with a Thompson/Hunter ticket.
The two guys we are not sick to death of.
If they want to win, they will go Thompson/Hunter or Hunter/Thompson.
A ticket I am choosing that I feel safe with!
Well, they did not mention Ron Paul either, who is doing better than 2 out of the 3 you mentioned, and I am glad about that.
My thought also that the Fred campaign may be more wise than we have given them credit for.
If forced to support Huck or Rudy, who would you pull for.
PLEASE, NO "I won't vote" answers, I just want to know how Freepers would come down between Huck and Rudy.
My answer, of course, is Rudy, what about you?
This piece is fatally narrow, as you point out. Fred would help avoid these difficulties, and so would McCain, in my humble opinion. I know the name “McCain” has been poison of late, but his recent conversion on taxes and immigration is, I believe, at least as sincere as Romney’s.
My main issue with Fred is desire and tenacity (or a noticeable lack thereof). He just doesn’t seem to want the nomination very much, evidenced by his late start, lackluster campaigning style and propensity to schedule few events or even cancel some of the ones already on his calendar. Sorry to all you Fred boosters out there, but he just doesn’t enthrall me. . .
Oh really? Then why is he polling so low (at par or even lower than Ron Paul) in poll after poll after poll? Are we waiting for Joementum?
Yep, that is why Rudy is tanking. Other than the obvious fact that there is nothing conservative about him, we all just got sick of him.
All the other guys, with an exception of Thompson and Hunter, have irritated the cr*p out of us. Huckster being up there as bad or even worse than Rudy.
Could be Thompson has been biding his time waiting for all the nutcases to come to their senses.
Then , he will step in.
Maybe it is wishful on my part. But...I keep hoping for that!
No, I don’t know any members of one of the mega-churches. I’ve tried going to various churches myself, but have come to the realization that I’m not much of a team player - more of a lone wolf. Churches just don’t do it much for me anymore.
Maybe instead of saying “easily led”, I should have said “team players” - which is fine if the goal is honorable. The problem usually happens when the leader of the team starts getting big-headed & loving power. Then, I don’t want to play on the team anymore - I do better on my own.
I wouldn’t pi$$ in Rooty’s ear if his head was on fire!
I would agree with that. I believe that people would support Hunter more. Marriage made in heaven.
Common sense.
Maybe, and I hope you are correct, but I think that is wishful thinking. If Fred comes in 5th in Iowa and 5th in NH (a distinct possibility), I expect him to drop out. He will be the first man sitting, and not the last man standing.
Must be bad in Clinton ‘ville. Not a word for days.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.