Chip-Shrinking May Be Nearing Its Limits

Excite news ^ | 15 December 2007 | JORDAN ROBERTSON

[ShadowAce]

to my thread!!!

[tlj18]

I’ve been expecting this. The next leap will be quantum computing, but it’s still quite a few years down the road before it is used in practical applications.

[martin_fierro]

Once chip makers can't squeeze any more into the same-sized slice of silicon, the dramatic performance gains and cost reductions in computing over the years could suddenly slow. And the engine that's driven the digital revolution - and modern economy - could grind to a halt.

*sigh* Or not.

Master Jordan needs to take a breath.

[BfloGuy]

Yeah, I hear we’re gonna run out of oil and food, too.

[Parley Baer]

“The transistor was invented by scientists William Shockley, John Bardeen and Walter Brattain to amplify voices in telephones for a Bell Labs project, an effort for which they later shared the Nobel Prize in physics.”

Back when the Nobel Prize meant something. Today the libs have taken it over and use it as a political tool.

[expatpat]

"The only thing that's been predicted more frequently than Moore's Law has been its demise - everybody's been wrong,"

That is true. Don't write the transistor off so easily.

[Blood of Tyrants]

My thoughts exactly. They may not make them smaller, but they will make them more efficient and more powerful with multiple processors, better memory, elimination of the hard drive, etc.

[NormsRevenge]

500th thread!!!

Congrats!

How much lower than submicron can they go or have they?

I remember when core memory and magnetic tapes ruled, what an invention. boy, did things change since then. ;-)

[tlj18]

I don’t know, the transistors have been getting pretty small - like less than 100 atoms thick. It’s those pesky laws of physics. Plus, it has to be affordable, too. There’s reasons why people don’t own supercomputers.

[doc1019]

I remember this being said about the Vacuum tube, the transistor and the first microchips.

[Moonman62]

And Microsoft keeps making software bigger and slower.

[OCC]

Happy Birthday little buddy!

[Army Air Corps]

My guess is that optical processors (or elctro-optical) will be next. TRW started toying with the idea in the early eventies and IBM is currently working in that direction.

[2111USMC]

Moore himself says that he expects the doubling to occur for another 10 years. Exponentially, that’s frigging huge!

(Besides, it seems like every year someone espouses this "end is near" stuff.)

[Army Air Corps]

eventies = seventies

[silentreignofheroes]

Started with Tubes,,they had their day,,transistors will have theirs’,,magnetics is next,,

[purpleraine]

10 years from now someone will refresh this thread and we’ll all have a good laugh

[Sherman Logan]

I remember the eventies! Those were the days.

[TOneocon]

You may have invented a new seperation of decades. LOL