Misreading the Iran Report: Why Spying and Policymaking Don't Mix (Kissinger)

Washington Post ^ | 13 December 2007 | Henry Kissinger

[shrinkermd]

Some brief exerpts:

• The extraordinary spectacle of the president's national security adviser obliged to defend the president's Iran policy against a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) raises two core issues: How are we now to judge the nuclear threat posed by Iran? How are we to judge the intelligence community's relationship with the White House and the rest of the government?

• Every permanent member of the U.N. Security Council has supported the request that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment program; the various countries differ on the urgency with which their recommendations should be pressed and in their willingness to impose penalties.

• The NIE holds that Iran may be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon by the end of 2009 and, with increasing confidence, more warheads by the period 2010 to 2015. That is virtually the same timeline as was suggested in the 2005 National Intelligence Estimate. The new estimate does not assess how long it would take to build a warhead, though it treats the availability of fissile material as the principal limiting factor.

• It is therefore doubtful that the evidence supports the dramatic language of the summary and, even less so, the broad conclusions drawn in much of the public commentary

• Hence the emphasis on renewing the enrichment program in the guise of a civilian energy program. In short, if my analysis is correct, we could be witnessing not a halt of the Iranian weapons program -- as the NIE asserts -- but a subtle, ultimately more dangerous, version of it that will phase in the warhead when fissile material production has matured.

[shrinkermd]

Definitely, an important article and one that Congress and the antiwar types should include in their judgement.

[mojito]

More and more, I see important articles like this one posted on FR with no or minimal comments. Disheartening, to say the least.

[Dark Wing]

Kissenger does not buy the NIE either.

[mtntop3]

Perceptive and cogent - and probably influential - summary by someone who has gravitas if anyone has gravitas. Thanks for the post.

[TheThinker]

Some Freepers just hate Kissinger. It may be that he has some moral shortcomings but he has a political mind like the western world has rarely seen. When he analyzes a point, he takes you through a logical process that runs through the contigencies of each possibility. He then adds his own vast experience to the analysis.

[roaddog727]

HEnry might be old and crusty, but he’s still sharp as a needle and still get’s it.

[Kenny Bunk]

....minimal comments. Disheartening, to say the least...

Kissinger's thoughts certainly speak for themselves. Why do you think comments are necessary?

Are you looking for a "Bush's Fault" type comment? Perhaps the online community is just taking in this info preparatory to making a more informed "comment" on it later.

The poster has done us all a service by calling Kissinger's thoughts to our attention. Good post.

[nuconvert]

” In short, if my analysis is correct, we could be witnessing not a halt of the Iranian weapons program — as the NIE asserts — but a subtle, ultimately more dangerous, version of it that will phase in the warhead when fissile material production has matured.”

[mojito]

Did it sound like I was looking to solicit attacks on the President? I didn’t allege anything of the sort. I made an entirely different observation: That articles of real substance receive minimal notice and comment.

What Kissinger’s article concludes is that an unelected and irresponsible bureaucracy now determines the course of US foreign policy on the most vital issues, according to its own whims and dictates, the elected leadership of the country be damned. If that’s not worthy of comment, I don’t know what is.

[Kenny Bunk]

I made an entirely different observation: That articles of real substance receive minimal notice and comment.

Be realistic, Mojo! Of course, the sad demise on a foreign island of a great big beautiful blonde with 45" of silicone enhanced mammary tissue is worth 11,000 X 4 of FREEP posts!

At the same time, the World-Wide War against Islamic Fascist Terror, sworn to the destruction of our republic and the conversion or death of all infidels, rates 10 or 12 learned comments.

The uneniable fact that you noticed this phenomenon escaped my notice. As you say "What Kissinger’s article concludes is that an unelected and irresponsible bureaucracy now determines the course of US foreign policy on the most vital issues, according to its own whims and dictates, the elected leadership of the country be damned. If that’s not worthy of comment, I don’t know what is." I do sincerely apologize ... and actually agree. Not only is it worthy of comment, but your comment is quite worthy, IMO.

OTOH,Mr. Kissinger gave us what is in essence a blinding glimpse of the obvious, while you totally ignore world-shaking (or something shaking) events back on that silicone-enhanced tropical isle......

[mojito]

I’m just a sourpuss. The same day as the Kissinger article posted, there was another outstanding, thought-provoking piece by Robert Kaplan posted here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1851488/posts

It garnered six comments.

[coinsedge]

The NIE does not so much reject this theory; it does not even examine it. It concludes that "Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon." But a cost-benefit analysis does not exclude a rush to weapons on a systematic basis. It depends on the criteria by which costs and benefits are determined. Similarly, in pursuing the cost-benefit rationale, the estimate concludes that a combination of international scrutiny along with security guarantees might "prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program." That is a policy, not an intelligence, judgment.

Kissenger is a master of duplicitous diplomacy, but his thoughts on this NIE are sharp. I wonder if he would have crafted it any differently...