Posted on 12/12/2007 11:31:53 PM PST by Kevmo
Here are the new Intrade results after the debate, as posted on the official discussion thread.
For the first time there has been a measurable change for DUNCAN HUNTER, doubling in price and showing a major jump embedded in Iowa.Field with a 3.3 point jump.
Duncan Hunter Won the debate. Huckabee Lost.
And, since this is going to be controversial, I will point out that Ive been logging onto several prior debate threads where I analyzed the changes in Intrade results from the debates -- and usually the analysis showed was Huckabee who won. This time it's Hunter.
Naturally, those with an axe to grind will go out of their way to belittle this analysis. Out of all the candidates, Hunter seems to have his own version of a peanut gallery. Notably, when I had pointed out in earlier debates that Huckabee had won, no one could fault the analysis -- they merely felt that Intrade was not a reliable source of information. The reason why I proceed from Intrade is that it is an aggregated form of information, its only bias is from whether or not someone can make money from the contracts, and predictive markets have proven to be more reliable than poll results. As an example, refer to this article on Free Republic:
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee Old Price New Price Change
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 41.1 41.1 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 20.2 21.4 +1.2 2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 17.8 18.0 +0.2 2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 9.2 9.2 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 5.0 6.0 +1.0 2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.1 5.0 -0.1 2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1 0.2 +0.1
Ron Paul's contracts saw a 20% rise, Thompson's saw a 2% fall, Huckabee's saw a 1% rise, Romney's saw a 6% rise and Hunter's saw a 100% rise in price.
Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
Old Price New Price Price Change REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to Win 72.5 70.8 -1.7 REP.IOWA.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to Win 25.1 25.1 No chg REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to Win 1.5 1.5 No chg REP.IOWA.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to Win 0.4 2.5 +2.1 REP.IOWA.MCCAIN John McCain to Win 0.5 1.7 +1.2 REP.IOWA.FIELD Field (any other individual) to Win 1.1 4.4 +3.3
The biggest changes were Giuliani and the Field. Hunter, Tancredo and Ron Paul are all embedded in the field. Interpolating from the fact that Tancredo's NOM contract saw no change and no volume, the two biggest elements would be Ron Paul's and Hunter's contracts. It's a real safe bet at this stage -- later on an Intrader would need to decide if he wanted to stick with Hunter or Paul when the contracts split out from the field. Further interpolating From Ron Paul's 20% rise and Hunter's 100% rise, that would leave about a half point rise due to Ron Paul's performance and maybe 2 & a half point rise for Hunter for Iowa.Win.
Rudy also seems to have done well in this debate for the Iowa results. Thompson and Huckabee lost ground.
The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
HELLOOOOOO DUNCAN HUNTER!
Saving for later.
Cool, with that I’ll keep it. :)
1. Fred is a GLOBALIST
2. Fred is for NAFTA, CAFTA.
3. Fred VOTED FOR the Chicoms to receive Most Favored Nation trading status
Fred buys in to the Free Trade crappola, while Duncan Hunter calls for FAIR trade. That's the difference!
Call Duncan Hunter a hawkish protectionist, if you must. But I personally can't find fault with a candidate who puts America first everytime. We will never be able to restore our fractured industrial-manufacturing base if we continue running up our trade deficits and submit to unfair practices of other nations, esp. China. Duncan Hunter is the only presidential candidate who understands this and is calling it to light.
I'll concede and must give credit where credit is due. Fred did great during the debate yesterday. Stellar! Magnifico! But until Fred abandons his GLOBALIST ways, I'll stick to Duncan Hunter.
Update
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.3 0.2 30386 +0.1
Hunter’s contracts continue to move, there was a large block at 0.2 that has been bought up, so now the ask price is tripled.
I think you hit it. This election is all about globalism and how it effects our safety and sovereignty. America should never be the last consideration for our own US President, even with globalization as a reality.
Excellent response. Note the reply, almost automated:
“but, but, name recognition”
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Yes, the MSM efforts to censor the authentic conservatives get a little too blatant sometimes.
there was a large block
and how do they compare to the other candidates? In other words what the interest level among them?
Arent they the ones that had Kerry at 80% chance of winning on election day?? Its pure emotion
***Read the efficacy article. It’s amazing to see someone with an axe to grind calling some other process “pure emotion”. Pot, meet kettle.
If anyone has it wrong, it’s Free Republic. In 2006 we showed 8% who believed we’d lose the house & senate, while the prediction markets had the reverse at 80%.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts?page=22#22
Fred is a good 2nd choice. But a CFR^2 candidate isn’t as good as a stalwart conservative. And the stalwart conservative won the debate yesterday, by an objective rather than subjective standard.
No one quibbled with my analyses when I was saying Huckabee was the winner in the pre-post snapshots of intrade. But if the stalwart conservative wins the debate, we see the naysayers coming out.
Of course it’s beyond you, because your standard is subjective. Intrade is an objective standard. The only bias is whether or not one can make money on the contracts, so it heavily favors liquidity. That means its bias is AGAINST the low end candidates who don’t move much.
In Poker, if you can’t beat the board, you fold. Yesterday, Hunter beat the board.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Fred-hater alert!
***Baloney. I will vote for Fred if he gets the nomination. But the way I see it, he stands in Hunter’s way, he’s a lousy candidate. He’s dropping in the polls, lost 30 points at Intrade, and now he’s All-In at Iowa and his debate performance yesterday was greeted by a 0.1 drop in the face of 100% climb for Hunter.
Hunter is the better conservative and the better candidate.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
“Call Duncan Hunter a hawkish protectionist, if you must.”
Duncan is my congressman, I never called him anything.
Someone ignorant of the candidates histories, posted that Fred had zero credentials for leading the U.S. in a foreign policy sense and I corrected that in post 19. Pointing out that until July when some people thought his only activity was acting, actually Fred was chairman of the International Security Advisory Board at the United States Department of State September 2005 July 2007 along with the rest of the long list of his extensive foreign affairs experiences. That is all.
Pay no attention to the troll.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Again I say Pay No Attention to the Troll.
Petronski had his say, overplayed his hand and he chose to call so many involved in the process liars that there is no reason to listen to him.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
That’s actually a good point about McCain, though I don’t like to admit it much. He suffered torture at the hands of the North Viet Namese. Unfortunately, I think he left some of his sanity in that prison camp.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Hunter’s a good guy. If he were the one with Huckabee’s traction I’d be singing from the rooftops. But he’s not, and doubling your support when you’re at a half-point doesn’t mean much.
“No one quibbled with my analyses when I was saying Huckabee was the winner in the pre-post snapshots of intrade. But if the stalwart conservative wins the debate, we see the naysayers coming out.”
The only thing on this thread that has interested me was correcting that silly post #18, the rest of it doesn’t matter to me.
And Hunter would make the best president. So show him your support.
Yesterday he won the debate by an objective standard, not necessarily a subjective one. Today his contracts continue to move.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
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