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(Vanity) According to Intrade, the winner of today's GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
Vanity ^ | 12/12/07 | Kevmo

Posted on 12/12/2007 11:31:53 PM PST by Kevmo

Here are the new Intrade results after the debate, as posted on the official discussion thread.

For the first time there has been a measurable change for DUNCAN HUNTER, doubling in price and showing a major jump embedded in Iowa.Field with a 3.3 point jump.

Duncan Hunter Won the debate. Huckabee Lost.

And, since this is going to be controversial, I will point out that I’ve been logging onto several prior debate threads where I analyzed the changes in Intrade results from the debates -- and usually the analysis showed was Huckabee who won. This time it's Hunter.

Naturally, those with an axe to grind will go out of their way to belittle this analysis. Out of all the candidates, Hunter seems to have his own version of a peanut gallery. Notably, when I had pointed out in earlier debates that Huckabee had won, no one could fault the analysis -- they merely felt that Intrade was not a reliable source of information. The reason why I proceed from Intrade is that it is an aggregated form of information, its only bias is from whether or not someone can make money from the contracts, and predictive markets have proven to be more reliable than poll results. As an example, refer to this article on Free Republic:

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

2008 Republican Presidential Nominee Old Price … New Price… Change

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 41.1 41.1 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 20.2 21.4 +1.2 2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 17.8 18.0 +0.2 2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 9.2 9.2 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 5.0 6.0 +1.0 2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.1 5.0 -0.1 2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1 0.2 +0.1

Ron Paul's contracts saw a 20% rise, Thompson's saw a 2% fall, Huckabee's saw a 1% rise, Romney's saw a 6% rise and Hunter's saw a 100% rise in price.

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus

Old Price … New Price … Price Change REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to Win 72.5 70.8 -1.7 REP.IOWA.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to Win 25.1 25.1 No chg REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to Win 1.5 1.5 No chg REP.IOWA.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to Win 0.4 2.5 +2.1 REP.IOWA.MCCAIN John McCain to Win 0.5 1.7 +1.2 REP.IOWA.FIELD Field (any other individual) to Win 1.1 4.4 +3.3

The biggest changes were Giuliani and the Field. Hunter, Tancredo and Ron Paul are all embedded in the field. Interpolating from the fact that Tancredo's NOM contract saw no change and no volume, the two biggest elements would be Ron Paul's and Hunter's contracts. It's a real safe bet at this stage -- later on an Intrader would need to decide if he wanted to stick with Hunter or Paul when the contracts split out from the field. Further interpolating From Ron Paul's 20% rise and Hunter's 100% rise, that would leave about a half point rise due to Ron Paul's performance and maybe 2 & a half point rise for Hunter for Iowa.Win.

Rudy also seems to have done well in this debate for the Iowa results. Thompson and Huckabee lost ground.

The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter.

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: duncanhunter; gopdebates; ia2008
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To: ishabibble
I agree! I'm so sick of hearing all the radio & TV talk show anchors saying, "there aren't any solid Conservatives in the race" or "I'd love to find a candidate that stands up for his beliefs and doesn't change positions" or "stands firm on illegal immigration."

HELLOOOOOO DUNCAN HUNTER!

41 posted on 12/13/2007 8:04:13 AM PST by NordP (Such tough choices ahead, I'm now a "middle of the road" voter--somewhere between RUSH & Savage ;-))
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To: Antoninus
Thank you for the ping!!!

Saving for later.

42 posted on 12/13/2007 8:06:49 AM PST by Just A Nobody (PISSANT for President '08 - NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! Beware the ENEMEDIA)
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To: Earthdweller

Cool, with that I’ll keep it. :)


43 posted on 12/13/2007 8:12:23 AM PST by wastedyears (Duncan Hunter is like a cheeseburger and fries. Simple presentation with no frills.)
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To: ansel12
I'm not a Fred hater, I like Fred. But here's why he's NOT my first choice and Duncan Hunter is:

1. Fred is a GLOBALIST

2. Fred is for NAFTA, CAFTA.

3. Fred VOTED FOR the Chicoms to receive Most Favored Nation trading status

Fred buys in to the Free Trade crappola, while Duncan Hunter calls for FAIR trade. That's the difference!

Call Duncan Hunter a hawkish protectionist, if you must. But I personally can't find fault with a candidate who puts America first everytime. We will never be able to restore our fractured industrial-manufacturing base if we continue running up our trade deficits and submit to unfair practices of other nations, esp. China. Duncan Hunter is the only presidential candidate who understands this and is calling it to light.

I'll concede and must give credit where credit is due. Fred did great during the debate yesterday. Stellar! Magnifico! But until Fred abandons his GLOBALIST ways, I'll stick to Duncan Hunter.

44 posted on 12/13/2007 8:15:43 AM PST by dit_xi (Duncan Hunter: No nose holding necessary come election day. Right on every issue, right every time)
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To: Kevmo

Update

2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.3 0.2 30386 +0.1

Hunter’s contracts continue to move, there was a large block at 0.2 that has been bought up, so now the ask price is tripled.


45 posted on 12/13/2007 8:20:06 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: dit_xi

I think you hit it. This election is all about globalism and how it effects our safety and sovereignty. America should never be the last consideration for our own US President, even with globalization as a reality.


46 posted on 12/13/2007 8:20:19 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: rawcatslyentist

Excellent response. Note the reply, almost automated:

“but, but, name recognition”

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


47 posted on 12/13/2007 8:22:40 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: AmericanInTokyo
Any forward movement at this time is welcome, against the backdrop of being slickly kept out of news leads and cropped out of photos of debate participants on the stage.

Yes, the MSM efforts to censor the authentic conservatives get a little too blatant sometimes.

48 posted on 12/13/2007 8:24:05 AM PST by Paul Ross (Ronald Reagan-1987:"We are always willing to be trade partners but never trade patsies.")
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To: Kevmo

there was a large block


What’s a large block?......... 10, 100, 1000

and how do they compare to the other candidates? In other words what the interest level among them?


49 posted on 12/13/2007 8:24:58 AM PST by deport (---21 days Iowa Caucuses--- 26 days New Hampshire vote s--- [ Meanwhile:-- Cue Spooky Music--])
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To: bray

Aren’t they the ones that had Kerry at 80% chance of winning on election day?? It’s pure emotion
***Read the efficacy article. It’s amazing to see someone with an axe to grind calling some other process “pure emotion”. Pot, meet kettle.

If anyone has it wrong, it’s Free Republic. In 2006 we showed 8% who believed we’d lose the house & senate, while the prediction markets had the reverse at 80%.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts?page=22#22


50 posted on 12/13/2007 8:27:04 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: ansel12

Fred is a good 2nd choice. But a CFR^2 candidate isn’t as good as a stalwart conservative. And the stalwart conservative won the debate yesterday, by an objective rather than subjective standard.

No one quibbled with my analyses when I was saying Huckabee was the winner in the pre-post snapshots of intrade. But if the stalwart conservative wins the debate, we see the naysayers coming out.


51 posted on 12/13/2007 8:32:03 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: RockinRight

Of course it’s beyond you, because your standard is subjective. Intrade is an objective standard. The only bias is whether or not one can make money on the contracts, so it heavily favors liquidity. That means its bias is AGAINST the low end candidates who don’t move much.

In Poker, if you can’t beat the board, you fold. Yesterday, Hunter beat the board.

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


52 posted on 12/13/2007 8:34:48 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: RockinRight

Fred-hater alert!
***Baloney. I will vote for Fred if he gets the nomination. But the way I see it, he stands in Hunter’s way, he’s a lousy candidate. He’s dropping in the polls, lost 30 points at Intrade, and now he’s All-In at Iowa and his debate performance yesterday was greeted by a 0.1 drop in the face of 100% climb for Hunter.

Hunter is the better conservative and the better candidate.

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


53 posted on 12/13/2007 8:37:01 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: dit_xi; conservativecajun

“Call Duncan Hunter a hawkish protectionist, if you must.”

Duncan is my congressman, I never called him anything.

Someone ignorant of the candidates histories, posted that Fred had zero credentials for leading the U.S. in a foreign policy sense and I corrected that in post 19. Pointing out that until July when some people thought his only activity was acting, actually Fred was chairman of the International Security Advisory Board at the United States Department of State September 2005 — July 2007 along with the rest of the long list of his extensive foreign affairs experiences. That is all.


54 posted on 12/13/2007 8:38:38 AM PST by ansel12 (“Sanctuary Mansion? The savings help me to become leader of the anti-illegal worker war. Romney 08)
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To: Petronski; All

Pay no attention to the troll.

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


55 posted on 12/13/2007 8:38:42 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski

Again I say Pay No Attention to the Troll.

Petronski had his say, overplayed his hand and he chose to call so many involved in the process liars that there is no reason to listen to him.

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


56 posted on 12/13/2007 8:40:10 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: conservativecajun

That’s actually a good point about McCain, though I don’t like to admit it much. He suffered torture at the hands of the North Viet Namese. Unfortunately, I think he left some of his sanity in that prison camp.

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


57 posted on 12/13/2007 8:42:13 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Hunter’s a good guy. If he were the one with Huckabee’s traction I’d be singing from the rooftops. But he’s not, and doubling your support when you’re at a half-point doesn’t mean much.


58 posted on 12/13/2007 8:42:46 AM PST by RockinRight (Fred Thompson spells gravitas B-A-L-L-S-O-F-S-T-E-E-L.)
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To: Kevmo

“No one quibbled with my analyses when I was saying Huckabee was the winner in the pre-post snapshots of intrade. But if the stalwart conservative wins the debate, we see the naysayers coming out.”


The only thing on this thread that has interested me was correcting that silly post #18, the rest of it doesn’t matter to me.


59 posted on 12/13/2007 8:43:01 AM PST by ansel12 (“Sanctuary Mansion? The savings help me to become leader of the anti-illegal worker war. Romney 08)
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To: ansel12

And Hunter would make the best president. So show him your support.

Yesterday he won the debate by an objective standard, not necessarily a subjective one. Today his contracts continue to move.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


60 posted on 12/13/2007 8:44:30 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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