Posted on 12/12/2007 11:31:53 PM PST by Kevmo
Here are the new Intrade results after the debate, as posted on the official discussion thread.
For the first time there has been a measurable change for DUNCAN HUNTER, doubling in price and showing a major jump embedded in Iowa.Field with a 3.3 point jump.
Duncan Hunter Won the debate. Huckabee Lost.
And, since this is going to be controversial, I will point out that I’ve been logging onto several prior debate threads where I analyzed the changes in Intrade results from the debates -- and usually the analysis showed was Huckabee who won. This time it's Hunter.
Naturally, those with an axe to grind will go out of their way to belittle this analysis. Out of all the candidates, Hunter seems to have his own version of a peanut gallery. Notably, when I had pointed out in earlier debates that Huckabee had won, no one could fault the analysis -- they merely felt that Intrade was not a reliable source of information. The reason why I proceed from Intrade is that it is an aggregated form of information, its only bias is from whether or not someone can make money from the contracts, and predictive markets have proven to be more reliable than poll results. As an example, refer to this article on Free Republic:
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee Old Price … New Price… Change
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 41.1 41.1 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 20.2 21.4 +1.2 2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 17.8 18.0 +0.2 2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 9.2 9.2 No chg 2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 5.0 6.0 +1.0 2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.1 5.0 -0.1 2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1 0.2 +0.1
Ron Paul's contracts saw a 20% rise, Thompson's saw a 2% fall, Huckabee's saw a 1% rise, Romney's saw a 6% rise and Hunter's saw a 100% rise in price.
Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
Old Price … New Price … Price Change REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to Win 72.5 70.8 -1.7 REP.IOWA.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to Win 25.1 25.1 No chg REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to Win 1.5 1.5 No chg REP.IOWA.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to Win 0.4 2.5 +2.1 REP.IOWA.MCCAIN John McCain to Win 0.5 1.7 +1.2 REP.IOWA.FIELD Field (any other individual) to Win 1.1 4.4 +3.3
The biggest changes were Giuliani and the Field. Hunter, Tancredo and Ron Paul are all embedded in the field. Interpolating from the fact that Tancredo's NOM contract saw no change and no volume, the two biggest elements would be Ron Paul's and Hunter's contracts. It's a real safe bet at this stage -- later on an Intrader would need to decide if he wanted to stick with Hunter or Paul when the contracts split out from the field. Further interpolating From Ron Paul's 20% rise and Hunter's 100% rise, that would leave about a half point rise due to Ron Paul's performance and maybe 2 & a half point rise for Hunter for Iowa.Win.
Rudy also seems to have done well in this debate for the Iowa results. Thompson and Huckabee lost ground.
The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
With what little time Duncan Hunter does get during these debates, he always makes the best of it and shows he is clearly the candidate who shows leadership and is excellent everytime he speaks.
Remember that Hunter isn’t even afforded the opportunity to speak like the rest of the candidates are and does extremely well with what little time he does get. He always owns the room anytime he speaks.
Fred Thompson is no Duncan Hunter. He also never showed any leadership in the Senate, except for Campaign Finance Reform and shouldn’t we all be proud of that?!! Just the kind of judgment we want from the great conservative. /s
LOL, yeah, you are so proud in the attempt to silence Duncan Hunter and it is obvious in the debates. With what little time Hunter is given he always gets praise EVERY debate he is in. He is ALWAYS on and ready with a response.
Well said. And it comes down to the fact Fred is not the best candidate in this race. He is not Duncan Hunter. Enough said.
Where did I ever say that?
Duncan Hunter Won the debate. Huckabee Lost.Gabe Kaplan drew to a straight and took home $30K. ;') Thanks Kevmo.
Who’s Gabe Kaplan? What were the pot odds when he drew to the straight? Was it an inside or outside straight (different odds)?
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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Uh-oh, just a little fun-poking... the World Series of Poker (or whatever it’s called) which sometimes has Gabe Kaplan (”Welcome Back Kotter”) at the table.
I like to watch Gabe Kaplan play - his son (and I think a daughter, too) also plays texas hold em.
Last night I had 4 aces .... ahhh, what fun! Pocket rockets, with 2 more on the board! However, I won more chips with the previous hand, pocket twos (ducks) that only tripped on the board. The straight draws paid dearly for that miss.
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