Posted on 12/12/2007 5:59:46 AM PST by jdm
Had the Republicans lost their two special election contests to replace deceased GOP House members, one would see the papers filled with analyses of the coming debacle for Republican hopes in 2008. Now that they have won both handily, expect most to either ignore the races altogether or chalk up the wins to local Republican strength. However, pundits cannot easily dismiss the lessons from the race in Ohio:
Republicans retained two House seats in special elections Tuesday, including a hotly contested Ohio race that the two parties spent nearly $700,000 trying to win. ...
State legislator Bob Latta decisively defeated Democrat Robin Weirauch in Ohio’s 5th District, leading by 56 to 43 percent with 90 percent of the vote in. The special election was held to replace the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R).
In Virginia’s 1st District, GOP state Del. Rob Wittman won a landslide victory over Iraq war veteran Phil Forgit (D) in the race to succeed the late Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R).
With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Wittman had 61 percent of the vote, while Forgit had only tallied 37 percent.
The story of the evening was Latta’s victory, however, given signs in recent weeks that the reliably Republican district, based in Bowling Green, was in danger of falling into Democratic hands.
The issue involved more than just the 5th CD in Ohio. Democrats won the governorship in Ohio last year, and they had hoped that the special election would show that they have the momentum in the Buckeye State. The state Republicans took a beating over scandals involving the previous governor and other state officials, and Democrats believe that they can win the state in the next presidential election -- which could provide the key to winning back the White House.
In order to make that case, the Democrats poured money and effort into OH-05. Governor Ted Strickland campaigned personally in the district. Labor sent its activists to bolster Weirauch's ground game. The national DCCC spent almost a quarter-million dollars attempting to tie Latta to the past scandals of state GOP officials.
In the end, it availed them nothing. Despite all of the attention, Latta won the seat by the same margin as the late Dan Gillmore did in 2006 with the advantage of incumbency. It strongly suggests that Ohio remains solidly Republican even after the 2006 spanking it took over Bob Taft and Tom Noe. That puts a big crimp in the Democrats' national plans for the presidential race, and could mean that they will have to forego a big push in Ohio and look for better ground elsewhere.
In Virginia, the lesson looks less stark. Neither side spent too much effort on Virginia's 1st CD, although Democrats sent Governor Tim Kaine in the last week to attempt an upset. Instead, they lost by an almost 2-1 spread. The GOP chalks this up to the immigration debate, which made the last special election -- a usually safe Democratic seat in Massachussetts -- a much closer affair, with Nikki Tsongas only winning by a few percentage points.
Expect the Republicans to focus on immigration as next year's big issue. With Iraq improving steadily, the Democrats may find themselves without a hot-button topic -- and the House, at least, could fall back into Republican hands.
The MSM has spoken so stay home and sulk. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain....
I’d sure love to see these as a harbinger, but before 2006 elections we had tough special elections in CA and in the end GOP won it easily. It did not work out that way in November.
I hope illegal immigration is the key issue so we could finally get the fence and force dems to take a stand. Huckabee would be worst case candidate in that case.
The woman (fugly, too)that ran against Latta was in reality running against Grinning Idiot Taft and Tom Noe. I didn’t see ONE positive ad as to what she would attempt to do if elected to office. It was a rehash of using Taft and Noe as Boogeymen that they used last November. It worked then, but perhaps the dims have finally learned from this escapade that horse is dead.
We spent way too much on heavy GOP districts and the RNC and NRCCC are broke. That’s why I am hoping that Hillary wins the dem nomination. She is the only one that can save the GOP. I don’t care if the guy from weekend at Bernies is our nominee, I will give him my last dime to beat that witch. Let the moronic one issue voters sit out if it’s Rudy-I choose to do battle.
I hope so, but we need a Rep at the top of the ticket who will not be be pro-amnesty, i.e., McCain, Huckabee, and Giuliani would be a disaster and undercut our Congressional candidates. Beware of the Dems in Congress who are now pushing the SAVE Act [author: Heath Shuler], which has over 40 Rep sponsors. It is a tough sounding bill, but I fear it is just a fig leaf to be used as political cover for the Dems in much the same way as the Fence Act was in 2006.
Thanks. I needed that. I hadn't yet turned on the radio this morning and your booster shot made it unnecessary. ;)
Tom Cole, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the race “became a cause célèbre for national Democrats and liberal activists nationwide, but in the end, Bob’s anti-illegal immigration, anti-tax hike message won the day.”
The results show that the democrats are as motivated as the Miami Dolphins.
LLS
Excellent post!
The race in Ohio’s 5th CD wouldn’t have been nearly as close as the two GOP candidates not savaged each other so badly in the primary.
There was some residual bad blood among Bob McEwen supporters and I’m sure they either didn’t vote for voted for the Dem out of spite.
That race probably would have gone over 60% for the GOP candidate too.
Since when is a 14 point win "too close to call"? The MSM is pathetic.
LLS
Right now we can NOT say the GOP will take back the House. What we can say is that there is very little chance that the rat will increase his seats. With that being the case, there is very little chance the rat will have a working majority whether plastic face is the speaker or not.
Yes, but remember that these were two Pub districts SUPPOSEDLY in trouble. Note that the MSM never tells us which Dem districts are in trouble. If there are 17 seats which separate the parties, it is important that the Pubs unite nationally to get those 17 seats back. No matter who the Prez guy will be.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.