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Iran Intelligence Report: Garbage In, Garbage Out
CQ Politics ^ | Dec. 7, 2007 | Jeff Stein, CQ National Security Editor

Posted on 12/08/2007 4:32:32 PM PST by Aristotelian

. . . the fact is that the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran never really said what many in the media (and antiwar camp) claimed it said — that Iran was out of the nukes game, had been for at least four years.

And the NIE’s implication that the flaming Islamic state had foresworn nukes altogether was equally absurd.

“In fact, the report contains the same sorts of flaws that we have learned to expect from our intelligence agency offerings,” wrote two nuclear proliferation experts in The New York Times opinion pages on Thursday, Dec. 6.

“It, like the report in 2002 that set up the invasion of Iraq, is both misleading and dangerous,” wrote Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, and Valerie Lincy, editor of the nonpartisan group’s Web site, Iranwatch.org.

The Iranians are plunging ahead with 3,000 gas centrifuges, they pointed out, which could produce weapons-ready enriched uranium in a year.

The regime is also building a heavy water reactor, which “is ideal for producing plutonium for nuclear bombs, but is of little use in an energy program.”

Why does oil-rich Iran need nuclear energy anyway?

(Excerpt) Read more at cqpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: ahmadinejad; iran; iraniannukes; nie; nukes
Two years ago we got our hands on an Iranian scientist's laptop, which confirmed Tehran's nuclear weapons ambitions. Are we just supposed to ignore such evidence now based on some, undisclosed "new" evidence?

I agree with The Wall Street Journal editorial that blamed bad personnel choices for putting ringers into top intelligence slots. These dispicably partisan people try to knock Bush off balance at every turn.

1 posted on 12/08/2007 4:32:34 PM PST by Aristotelian
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To: Aristotelian

Here from NY Times of November 13, 2005:

In mid-July, senior American intelligence officials called the leaders of the international atomic inspection agency to the top of a skyscraper overlooking the Danube in Vienna and unveiled the contents of what they said was a stolen Iranian laptop computer.

The Americans flashed on a screen and spread over a conference table selections from more than a thousand pages of Iranian computer simulations and accounts of experiments, saying they showed a long effort to design a nuclear warhead, according to a half-dozen European and American participants in the meeting.

The documents, the Americans acknowledged from the start, do not prove that Iran has an atomic bomb. They presented them as the strongest evidence yet that, despite Iran’s insistence that its nuclear program is peaceful, the country is trying to develop a compact warhead to fit atop its Shahab missile, which can reach Israel and other countries in the Middle East.


2 posted on 12/08/2007 4:36:56 PM PST by Aristotelian
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To: Aristotelian

I thought it was garbage from the moment I heard about it. It struck me as being so overtly a spun political document that I couldn’t see how anyone could take it seriously.

But how frightening is it that we cannot even trust parts of our own intelligence community?

Mitch Rapp, where are you now that we need you?


3 posted on 12/08/2007 4:37:51 PM PST by StatenIsland (I'm a Dead-Cat Republican; I'd vote for a dead cat before a Democrat.)
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To: Aristotelian
claimed it said — that Iran was out of the nukes game, had been for at least four years.

Achmadenijad already admitted to it if I remember correctly. He went so far as to say it was a 'right' and offered to stop if western nations gave up their nuclear programs. I guess that's just meaningless rabble when the entire sum of your sick little reality revolves around discrediting Bush and the US. Iran is a huge international problem. The degenerate peoples that ignore/support them do so only in the belief that the US and Israel are the monster's main targets.
4 posted on 12/08/2007 4:52:00 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: kinoxi

Get this NIE wrong and the consequences are almost unimaginable — such as most of Israel destroyed and nukes in the hands of international terrorists.


5 posted on 12/08/2007 5:00:46 PM PST by Aristotelian
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To: Aristotelian

“saying they showed a long effort to design a nuclear warhead,”

That’s enough for me.

Mr. Bush, use your Executive War Powers and let’s reign down a little Christmas cheer on our enemies, what a GREAT present that would be!!


6 posted on 12/08/2007 5:01:57 PM PST by PROCON (Merry CHRISTmas!!)
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To: PROCON

I am afraid that the publication of this NIE rules out any military action by the U.S. against Iran’s nuke facilities during the remainder of Bush’s term. I guess that was the real intent of producing and publishing this skewed report.


7 posted on 12/08/2007 5:07:52 PM PST by Aristotelian
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To: Aristotelian

The dissemination of the weapons is a given when discussing Iranian leadership. They have disseminated weapons and fomented battles in which they are used. There is no reason to believe that they will not continue to do so. They will.


8 posted on 12/08/2007 5:09:07 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: Aristotelian

My dad used to work very deep in military intelligence during the Cold War years before he retired. He had little to no respect for most of the other field agents with whom he worked and considered most of the “intelligence” they collected in those days to be as useful as a handful of warm poop.

Based on the LIE . . . . . . er, NIE, nothing has changed and the product has the same value as before!


9 posted on 12/08/2007 5:17:25 PM PST by DustyMoment (FloriDUH - proud inventors of pregnant/hanging chads and judicide!!)
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To: Aristotelian

I don’t care what the NIE says, I just want to drive the Libs daffy!!

Can you IMAGINE what the MSM would do if we bombed Iran on November 1st, 2008?

I know it is unrealistic, but can’t I dream?! :)


10 posted on 12/08/2007 5:43:05 PM PST by PROCON (Merry CHRISTmas!!)
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To: Aristotelian

I look at this on the positive side... Bush wasn’t going to do anything anyway. He was going to hand off the problem to his successor. If Hillary is elected, then Bush will have the opportunity to say I told you so even though he wasn’t planning to do a thing. The Dems walked right into it. Their flunkies at the CIA gave Bush the cover he needed to do what he was going to do anyway. All he’s gotta do is pretend like the Dems have tied his hands, and blame the result on them.


11 posted on 12/08/2007 5:43:58 PM PST by Brilliant
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To: Aristotelian
To get at the base of the intelligence community’s assessment and base of Iran's progress of developing atomic weapons:
It came about with a request for a revised assessment made four months ago by Democrat Senators in their intelligence committee.
Obviously this request was advanced and prepared in order to come up with a revised assessment.
Partisan Bush haters within the intelligence community fulfilled their part of the assignment, won the debate, and opted for this change of mind by overturning their previous opposite assessment. Democrats in the Senate upstaged Bush through their loyalists in the intelligence community.
Ahmadinejad expressed full praise to the Democrat Senate.
12 posted on 12/08/2007 5:47:34 PM PST by hermgem (Will Olmr)
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To: DustyMoment
Your comments about your dad remind me of the 9/11 Report coverup — namely, the report never went back to the source of our intelligence failure, which began with the Church Committee and the Democrat Congress’ relentless attacks on our intelligence services. Congress, or more specifically Democrat members of Congress, was to blame for the 9/11 intelligence failure. Congress destroyed our human intelligence-gathering capability, and that allowed bin Laden and his gang to run wild.
13 posted on 12/08/2007 6:32:29 PM PST by Aristotelian
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To: kinoxi

Interestingly, the BBC reports:

Iran has sent a formal protest letter to the United States, accusing it of spying on Iran’s nuclear activities. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said the note was sent in response to a US intelligence report released on Monday about Iran’s nuclear activities.


14 posted on 12/08/2007 6:39:14 PM PST by Aristotelian
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To: Aristotelian

bfl


15 posted on 12/08/2007 6:40:44 PM PST by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: Aristotelian
Get this NIE wrong and the consequences are almost unimaginable

Most Israeli Jews are not going to line up for the showers. Now alone and facing an existential threat without conventional resources to deal with the threat, they will go nuclear. Once nukes start flying about the mideast, the regions oil production halts indefinitely and world economies grind to a halt, the consequences of this NIE will have only just begun.

16 posted on 12/08/2007 6:52:25 PM PST by fso301
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To: Aristotelian
If this report is right, the folks who wrote the NIE should be patting John Bolton on the back for being a prophet or a miracle worker.

After all, in June, 2003, Bolton told congress, "The world has put Iran on notice that it must stop pursuing nuclear weapons."

The NIE says Iran stopped pursuing nuclear weapons a few months later (Fall, 2003).

17 posted on 12/08/2007 7:01:36 PM PST by syriacus (J. Bolton : "The world has put Iran on notice that it must stop pursuing nuclear weapons." (6/2003))
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To: syriacus

re: Iran NIE
Scroll down.

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com


18 posted on 12/08/2007 7:07:30 PM PST by AliVeritas (If the rock's not standing after the smoke clears... then what?)
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To: Aristotelian

“Ahmadinejad is harmless” bump


19 posted on 12/08/2007 7:16:55 PM PST by Dajjal
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To: Aristotelian
Congress destroyed our human intelligence-gathering capability, and that allowed bin Laden and his gang to run wild.

I couldn't agree more. Had my father not passed away in 1994, the absurd reegulations, intelligence failures and hand-tying that led to 9/11 would have killed him.

20 posted on 12/09/2007 2:04:24 PM PST by DustyMoment (FloriDUH - proud inventors of pregnant/hanging chads and judicide!!)
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